Army's Rising Promotion Rate Called Ominous

[IJ Reilly]

Experts say the quality of the officer corps is threatened as the service fights to retain leaders during wartime and fill new command slots.

WASHINGTON — Struggling to retain enough officers to lead its forces, the Army has begun to dramatically increase the number of soldiers it promotes, raising fears within the service that wartime strains are diluting the quality of the officer corps.

Last year, the Army promoted 97% of all eligible captains to the rank of major, Pentagon data show. That was up from a historical average of 70% to 80%.

Traditionally, the Army has used the step to major as a winnowing point to push lower-performing soldiers out of the military.

The service also promoted 86% of eligible majors to the rank of lieutenant colonel in 2005, up from the historical average of 65% to 75%.

The higher rates of promotion are part of efforts to fill new slots created by an Army reorganization and to compensate for officers who are resigning from the service, many after multiple rotations to Iraq.

The promotion rates "are much higher than they have been in the past because we need more officers than we did before," said Lt. Col. Bryan Hilferty, an Army spokesman.

The Army has long taken pride in the competitiveness of its promotions, and insists that only officers that meet rigorous standards are elevated through its ranks.

But the recent trends in promotions have stirred concerns that the Army is being forced to lower its standards to provide leaders for combat units that will be deployed overseas.

"The problem here is that you're not knocking off the bottom 20%," said a high-ranking Army officer at the Pentagon. "Basically, if you haven't been court-martialed, you're going to be promoted to major."

The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to publicly discuss the issue.

Army officials say the primary cause of the jump in promotions is the service's ongoing effort to create more combat units without an overall expansion.

The Army hopes to increase the number of active-duty combat brigades from 33 to 42 over the next several years by cutting headquarters staff and transferring soldiers from support jobs into frontline combat positions.

The push to fill the new units means that more officers are being promoted, officials say. In addition, they say the military's deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan have improved the overall quality of the Army's officer corps.

"These are people who have spent a year in combat," Hilferty said. "We think that we are promoting well-trained people."

Yet the increase in promotions is partly due to the large number of Army officers choosing to leave the service. Army officers are getting out of the military at the highest rate since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, shrinking the pool of officers eligible for promotion.

According to Army data, the portion of junior officers (lieutenants and captains) choosing to depart for civilian life rose last year to 8.6%, up from 6.3% in 2004. The attrition rate for majors rose to 7% last year, up from 6.4% in 2005. And the rate for lieutenant colonels was 13.7%, the highest in more than a decade.

...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,4783289.story

[miloblithe]

Last year, when I worked for the military, I told one of the Lt. Col.s I knew that my brother-in-law might be making Captain soon, he looked at me kind of funny and said, "these days, everyone makes Captain."

[mactastic]

But to the administration, this is a sign that things are going WELL. Kind of like an upsurge in violence in Iraq means things are about to get better. No arguing with that logic either way, right?

Same with the military. When Clinton wanted reductions he was 'hollowing out' the force. When Bush does it, in this case announcing cuts-that-aren't-really-cuts in the reserves, it's no problem. Oh yeah, coupled with leaving America unprotected against someone else who might take advantage of this opportunity to present a true strategic threat to the US. Like say Iran, North Korea, Russia, or China for instance.

But hey, when the army is promoting everyone in sight it's a sign things are going really, really well.

[skunk]

"You're doing a heck of a job, Bushie!"

[zimv20]

funny how, in most of the rest of the country, there's a shortage of jobs. but the military just can't get enough people, it seems.

[cslewis]

Originally Posted by zimv20

funny how, in most of the rest of the country, there's a shortage of jobs. but the military just can't get enough people, it seems.

Maybe that's because not too many people want to join the military in the first place...

[mactastic]

They didn't used to have a problem filling those positions...

[xsedrinam]

Maybe when "be all that you can be" might include "dead at 20", the gold loses its glitter.

[superbovine]

During World War II wasn't officer promotion accelerated as well or was that just officer training?

[mactastic]

Originally Posted by superbovine

During World War II wasn't officer promotion accelerated as well or was that just officer training?

I'm guessing yes, but the military was swelling in size then too, not working on replacing people who've decided to retire.

Our military is staying the same size these days, yet the promotion rate is rising. Are there more majors per grunt these days? I doubt it.

[miloblithe]

Originally Posted by mactastic

Our military is staying the same size these days, yet the promotion rate is rising. Are there more majors per grunt these days? I doubt it.

Isn't that a yes? Part of the restructuring of the military is towards smaller, more lethal units, which probably means slightly more officers (to command the greater number of units).

[mactastic]

Originally Posted by miloblithe

Isn't that a yes? Part of the restructuring of the military is towards smaller, more lethal units, which probably means slightly more officers (to command the greater number of units).

Sure that might involve a slight increase... even though I don't think individual units are headed up by a major typically.

But a jump of that magnitude? A couple percent is pretty substantial in a force of our size. Also, the end of the article makes it clear that retirement rates for 'junior officers' -- those who should be at the beginning of a military career -- are climbing. If those numbers are rising ALONG with smaller units there is a problem.

It'll be like what happened to the schools when the government mandated smaller class sizes, then didn't provide the money to hire the additional teachers it would take to staff the extra classrooms those teachers would need. It resulted in PE teachers teaching math. So now they mandate highly qualified teachers... but is there money for that, or any incentive for the teachers to play along?

If we promote 'battle-hardned' but poor-performing people just because we need bodies in place we WILL destroy our military.

[miloblithe]

Well I don't think there's any question this war is hurting our military. Qualified soldiers are being killed/permanently decapacitated while recruiting totals, recruiting standards, promotion standards, and retention rates have dropped.

[skunk]

Originally Posted by miloblithe

decapacitated

Is that a cross between incapacitated and decapitated?

[miloblithe]

Originally Posted by skunk

Is that a cross between incapacitated and decapitated?

One is the word choice of someone who is literate. The other is not?

(And I think your spellchecker corrected my mistake into something much worse)


edit:

WOW!

I clearly can't read/write today. I totally misread your post.

[skunk]

Originally Posted by miloblithe

WOW!

I clearly can't read/write today. I totally misread your post.

What on earth did you read it as??