Macworld San Francisco 2007 Rumor Roundup

[MacRumors]

With Macworld San Francisco (MWSF) quickly approaching, MacRumors provides this Rumor Roundup as a summary of major rumors circulating around the Mac Web before the big event. (Previous MacRumors MWSF roundups: 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, and 2002.)

While Apple's popularity continues to rise, the media coverage for Apple rumors reached an all time high this year.

Apple Phone (or Not?)

The one rumor that has received the greatest exposure is, of course, the Apple branded phone (formerly the iPhone). Talk of an Apple-branded cell phone has been ongoing for years, however.

In 2002, when asked directly "Will there be an iPhone?", Steve Jobs replied "One never knows. We don't usually discuss products we haven't announced." In 2003, when questioned again about an Apple phone, Steve Jobs stated that they did not "feel they could add much value to current cell phones."

The Apple Phone rumor flickered to life again in February 2006 when research group UBS said "not to rule out an Apple-branded cell phone later this year". PiperJaffray made a bolder statement in March 2006 with a 75% chance of a iPhone in the next 12 months. Similar claims came from a J.P. Morgan analyst that "chatter about the [Apple Phone] is all over the food chain".

What finally triggered worldwide attention can be traced back to this Commercial Times report that Taiwan's Hon Hai has received a 12 million unit contract for the rumored Apple phone to be released in the first half of 2007. While regular MacRumors readers might realize that these Taiwanese supply reports have been wrong in the past, the proposed time-frame correlated with an earlier ThinkSecret report also pointing to "early 2007" for the release. As well, a reliable MacRumors source provided a description (and artist rendition) of what one of the existing prototype phones looked like at that time.

The first detailed specs came from Kevin Rose who had been previously known to have some inside information. Other (conflicting) claims/specs are also listed here:

- 2GB ($249), 4GB ($449), Slide out keyboard, "cool" OS, All Phone providers (Kevin Rose)
- 4GB ($599), 8GB ($649), Metal, Cingular Wireless, Full screen LCD, Virtual Click Wheel (Morgan Stanley analyst)
- GSM/EDGE device only (ThinkSecret)

While many news outlets are pointing towards Macworld San Francisco as the launch date of the Apple Phone, none of the more credible rumors have specifically pointed to Macworld as the launch day for the device:

- 1st half of 2007 (1, 2, 3, 4)
- Not at Macworld SF (1)
- January (1)
- Macworld San Francisco (0)

While nothing would preclude Apple from announcing a phone at Macworld for a later launch, the evidence for a Macworld launch remains mostly speculative.

Mac Pro

Appleinsider suggested in October that an 8-Core Mac Pro was ready to launch as early as November 2006. While this did not take place, an upcoming 2.0GHz quad-core chip due in January will be priced at a reasonable $690/chip, similar to the current 2.66GHz dual-core Woodcrest that is currently offered in Mac Pros.

A recent Macscoop report claimed that the 8-core Mac would be on track for a January release.

iTV

Apple surprised many when they revealed the iTV in September at the "Showtime" media event. The $299 device offers a living room appliance that interfaces your media content to your television. A brief overview was provided, but the final shipping product was not promised until the first quarter of 2007.

Many expect Apple will provide more details of the iTV at Macworld.

Leopard

Leopard was first previewed in August, revealing Time Machine, Spaces, Core Animation, and more.

Over the following months, only a few additional features have been revealed, and no word of the "secret" features Apple has held back from their public preview.

The latest minor feature revealed has been the use of XAR for Leopard's package format.

Apple would likely demonstrate Leopard again at Macworld San Francisco, but the final release is not expected until "Spring 2007".

New Displays

Some sporadic reports of new displays have been distributed, but have been tainted by claims that they represent efforts to intentionally spread false information to rumor sites. As such, these rumors should be viewed with skepticism.

iLife '07

Unlike most Apple updates, the iLife suite has seen regular yearly updates released at the Macworld San Francisco expo. iWork '07 has been said to include significant updates to Keynote and Pages as well as the introduction of a new spreadsheet application code named "Lasso".

Video iPod, and Others?

Surprisingly, little attention has been given to the rumored full Video iPod despite clear evidence that Apple has been considering such a form factor. The latest word has placed the device in the early 2007 timeframe.

Three new iPod models were said to be in the works for 2007, but not necessarily at Macworld.

Summary

Surprisingly few Macworld San Francisco specific rumors have emerged this year in the months leading up to the event. This final week, however, always represents a busy time for rumors with last minute leaks common.

If you would like to meet up with other MacRumors members, this thread lists others going to the event.

No live Quicktime stream is typically available for the keynote event. Instead, we will provide live coverage of the event at MacRumorsLive.com. The keynote takes place at 9am Pacific time on January 9th, 2007.

[[ digg this ]]

[eenu]

doesn't seem like there is much to get excited about!

[amacgenius]

The only two I'm betting on are iLife '07 and iTV, because those seem most feasible at this point.

A new Mac Pro and another more in depth Leopard preview would be nice, but I don't think that's in the Pipeline (kudos to those who get the joke).

[Nugget]

Sounds like the keynote will either be really boring or really surprising.

[Blue Velvet]

The Apple Product Cycle

An obscure component manufacturer somewhere in the Pacific Rim announces a major order for some bleeding-edge piece of technology that could conceivably become part of an expensive, digital-lifestyle-enhancing nerd toy.

Some hardware geek, the sort who actually reads press releases from obscure Pacific Rim component manufacturers, posts a link to the press release in a Mac Internet forum.

The Mac rumor sites spring into action. Liberally quoting “reliable” sources inside Cupertino, irrelevant “experts,” and each other, they quickly transform baseless speculation into widely accepted fact.

Eager Mac-heads fan the flames by flooding the Mac discussion forums with more groundless conjecture. Threads pop up around feature wish lists, favorite colors, and likely retail price points. In a matter of days, a third-hand, unsubstantiated rumor blossoms into a hand-held device that can do everything except find a girlfriend for a fat, smelly nerd.

Apple issues it customary “we don’t comment on possible future products” statement in response to inquiries about the hypothetical new product. Mac fanatics are convinced that they're onto something.

The haters enter the fray to introduce fear, uncertainty and doubt. How expensive will the product be? Will it support Windows file formats? Will it work with my ten-year-old Quadra 840AV running Mac OS 8.1?

As Macworld or the Worldwide Developer’s Conference draws near, the chatter builds to a fever pitch. Rumor sites jockey for position, posting a new unverifiable, contradictory rumor every hour or so. eBay is flooded with six-month-old, slightly used gadgets as college students, underemployed web designers and independent musicians struggle to clear credit card space.

On the morning of Steve Jobs’s keynote presentation, the online Apple store grinds to a halt as Mac-heads set their browsers to refresh every 15 seconds.

Steve Jobs spends the first half-hour of his keynote crowing about how many iPods shipped during the previous six months and how many “native applications” have been developed for OS X. Attempting to appear as though it’s just an afterthought, he finally introduces the new Apple product. The product has sleek, clean lines, a diminutive form factor, and less than half of the useful features that everyone was expecting. Jobs announces that the product is available “immediately.”

Five minutes later, the new product appears on the online Apple store. Orders have an estimated ship date that is four weeks away.
The online Apple store takes 50,000 orders in the first 24 hours.

Apple’s stock surges as Wall Street analysts proclaim the new device will be “Apple’s savior” and the key to turning around the decades-long decline in Apple’s share of the global PC market.

The haters offer their assessment. The forums are ablaze with vitriolic rage. Haters pan the device for being less powerful than a Cray X1 while zealots counter that it is both smaller and lighter than a Buick Regal. The virtual slap-fight goes on and on, until obscure technical nuances like, “Will it play multiplexed Ogg Vorbis streams?” become matters of life and death.
The editors of popular Mac magazines hail the new device as the next great step toward our utopian digital future. Wired News runs exclusive interviews with the Apple design team. Fortune publishes another glowing fluff piece about Steve Jobs, proclaiming him to be the great visionary behind all technological innovation. Newsweek declares the device the new “must have” item for any self-respecting urban technophile. All of this is written before anybody outside of Cupertino has held the new device in his or her hand.

Business Week publishes an article stating that unless Apple immediately releases a Windows version of the new product its market share will continue to shrink and Apple will be out of business within six months. Mac zealots howl with fury and crash Business Week’s email server with their angry rebuttals.

In the wee hours of the morning on the initial ship date, as the Mac heads lay snug in their beds or take MDMA and dance to bad music, Apple delays everybody’s ship date by four weeks.

Rage reigns in the Mac forums. Lifelong Mac users who would never consider purchasing anything made by Microsoft or Dell, regardless of how shabbily Apple treats them, vent their anguish and frustration. Failing utterly to see the irony of the situation, they prattle on until their panties are twisted in knots.

The rumor sites abound with half-baked theories blaming the shipping delay on everything from heat dissipation problems to SARS. The most obvious explanation, that Apple lied about the initial shipment dates, is ignored in favor of more elaborate and unlikely scenarios.

Apple’s stock plummets as Wall Street analysts fret about the company’s supply chain problems. The same analysts who were raising their targets on Apple three weeks earlier appear on CNBC and predict that Apple could file for bankruptcy as soon as the week after next.

A week before the revised ship date rolls around, small quantities of the new product begin to appear in Apple’s retail stores. Chaos ensues as crazed Mac-heads queue up hours before the stores open, hoping to get their hands on one of the prized gizmos. The bedwetting in Mac Internet forums reaches tidal proportions as people post empty threats to cancel their online orders. The devices begin to appear on eBay and get bid up to absurd premiums over MSRP.

Pointless outrage slowly turns to pointless optimism. Driven insane by the lack of instant gratification, would-be customers profess their willingness to gun down the Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny if it would hasten the arrival of the FedEx delivery person.

Nerd porn threads appear in the Mac forums. Some lunatic with too much time and money on his hands disassembles the new device down to the bare, soldered components and posts pictures.

The obligatory “I’m waiting for Rev. B” discussion appears in the Mac forums. People who’ve been burned by first-generation Apple products open up their old wounds and bleed their tales of woe. Unsympathetic technophiles fire back with, “if you can’t handle the heat, stay out of the kitchen. *****.” Everyone has this stupid argument for the twenty-third time.

Apple issues a press release to announce that they have now taken orders for over 100,000 of the new devices and shipped at least eight or nine dozen. Backorders and waiting lists stretch into months.

Movie stars, professional athletes and rappers begin accessorizing with Apple’s new gadget. Shaquille O’Neal appears on the cover of ESPN The Magazine using one. Mac fans unconditionally forgive him for Kazaam.

Wall Street analysts appear on CNBC wearing big smiles and bright spring colors to announce that Apple's new device will drive Apple's sales to unprecedented levels and might be the key to turning around the decades-long decline in Apple’s share of the global PC market. Apple's share price surges. People who understand the root cause of the dot com bubble shake their heads in silent disgust.

Trade publications and business magazines begin to refer to the market for Apple's new product as a "space."

A minor, rarely occurring flaw in the device begins to be discussed in the Apple support forums. Whiny, artistic types post lengthy diatribes about how this terrible design flaw has made the device unusable and scarred them emotionally. Electronic petitions are created demanding that Apple replace the devices for free, plus pay for counseling to help traumatized users overcome their emotional distress.

Taken completely by surprise at the success of Apple's new gadget, executives from Dell or Sony or Microsoft appear on CNBC and offer vague suggestions that they are beginning development of a new product to compete with Apple. In its next issue, PC Week magazine publishes an article declaring that Apple's dominance of the [insert gadget here] space is in jeopardy.

Weeks before most users are able to hold Apple's new gadget in their hands, "What features would you like in the next version?" discussions take place on Mac mailing lists. Mac-heads cook up droves of far-fetched, often bizarre ideas. A cursory reading makes it readily apparent why Apple executives pay no attention to their fanatical customers.

Apple releases the first software update for the new device through its Software Update control panel. Several hours later, it pulls the updater. A small number of people who applied the update experience crashes, data loss, headaches and ennui. The Apple support forums are filled with outraged posts. A day or so later, Apple releases a revised installer without comment, then quietly removes the angry posts from its support forums.

Somebody starts a thread on a Mac chat board that asks whether anyone knows of a way to use the new device with some other nerd toy in a way that makes no sense whatsoever. Out of the blue, somebody writes a hack that facilitates the unholy combination and offers it as $39 shareware. Seven of the nine people who actually try to use the hack download it off of BitTorrent and use a pirate serial number. Advocates point to this as an example of how independent Mac software development is thriving.

Dell or Sony or Microsoft releases a competing device which costs $100 less and is based on completely incompatible, Windows-only technology. Business Week declares Apple's dominance of the [insert gadget here] space over. Angry Mac zealots make plans to surround Business Week's corporate offices with torches and pitchforks until someone points out that fire and garden tools are so un-digital.

Wall Street analysts appear on CNBC to explain that Apple's device will never be able to compete with the onslaught of cheaper Windows-based competitors. Apple's stock plummets. Idiot technology investors experience a brief moment of deja vu before they return to masturbating to photos of Maria Bartiromo.

Consumers discover that the Windows-based competitor to Apple's device contains a proprietary digital rights management technology that prevents them from using the device to do anything expect except look at family photographs taken in the last 20 minutes.

An obscure component manufacturer somewhere in the Pacific Rim announces a major order for some new bleeding-edge piece of technology that could conceivably become part of some expensive, digital-lifestyle-enhancing nerd toy. The fun begins again...

http://www.misterbg.org/AppleProductCycle/

[iJawn108]

I think we'll see QT 8 previewed.

[Rocketman]

I am expecting MACworld to bring (2/3 of):

A couple of interesting new MacPro BTO options.

A new iMac which is an iTV mainframe of sorts.

iTV enabled monitors.

An iTV breakout box for talking to existing computers and televisions.

802.11n in many places including a "surprise" (to some) announcement Macs have been shipping with 802.11n for several months now and it can be enabled by a software update (available today).

A consumer SAN.

New iPod games

New iLife/iWork apps and upgrades and backgrounds.

FCP update.

One more thing: Video iPod

Later: a "media release" perhaps leading to or at NAB
Later: an iTunes event announcing more movie studios and broadcast content libraries.
Later: Leopard, Mac-Mini C2D, MacMaster (workstation class system)

Rocketman

[4God]

I think we'll hear more on iTV. I also think now would be the time for iLife and Leopard announcements. It wouldn't surprise me to see an update to the displays, including a built in iSight and a move from 23" to 24" - don't know 'bout that 50 incher though. I don't think we'll see an update to FCP or MacPros untill NAB.

[jtaylr77]

Jobs receives a call during keynote and reaches into his pocket...


...audience errupts with joyful tears...








...pulls out iTunes compatible motorola phone....



...audience sighs....and cries....


....Steve gets another call 5 mintues later...


...pulls out iPhone

...geeks bumrush the stage and carry Steve off on their shoulders

[umu]

How about some kind of iSight?

[Metatron]

Whatever happend to the thin macbook? That is all I wanted this year.

[21stcenturykid]

Could apple maybe announce tv shows for uk itunes? IF not does anyone have any ideas when they might be releaseing these??

[RichP]

Wow, only a week away...


nice post BlueVelvet Ive read it before, but it is always applicable


Here's hoping there is something completely new or unexpected released!

[mkrishnan]

Originally Posted by Metatron

Whatever happend to the thin macbook? That is all I wanted this year.

I don't think there's been any compelling evidence to support that, sadly. At least, several very seemingly viable component technologies, such as ULV C2D's, are not available yet.

For the iSight, too, no really compelling evidence of what the revised product would be, should there be one.

[spookje]

As long they don't announce a MacBook Pro update it's all fine for me. Not sure if I would be shocked when they announce 100 pixels extra screen, or better videocard. But if they are going for a higher resolution like 1920x1080px for a 15" inch edition. Then it will be troublesome for me!

[arn]

Originally Posted by mkrishnan

I don't think there's been any compelling evidence to support that, sadly. At least, several very seemingly viable component technologies, such as ULV C2D's, are not available yet.
.

not only that, but none of the rumors really pointed to MWSF for a compact Macbook.

arn

[mkrishnan]

Originally Posted by arn

not only that, but none of the rumors really pointed to MWSF for a compact Macbook.

Agreed... I lust after it, but I have very low expectation of seeing it in January....

Nice work with the summary, Arn!

One other thing I think are interesting... We widely expect an iLife 07, but there have been basically no rumors related to how it will differ from iLife 06. I mean there're lots of obvious speculations, but....

[FleurDuMal]

Pfft...they shamefully overlooked my rumour

[Karpfish]

12" Mbp

[UberMac]

Originally Posted by jtaylr77

Jobs receives a call during keynote and reaches into his pocket...

...audience errupts with joyful tears...

...pulls out iTunes compatible motorola phone....

...audience sighs....and cries....

....Steve gets another call 5 mintues later...

...pulls out iPhone

...geeks bumrush the stage and carry Steve off on their shoulders

Nice idea. I have to say IF an [insert apple phone name here] was launched I'm pretty sure I'd buy one as I'm in the market right now. *shrug* Who knows!?

Uber

[OdduWon]

with iTv,the new features in iChat (background images), and the rumors of new iSight and apple game console, perhaps we will se see some type of iToy like device.

Also, with updates to iChat, perhaps we will see some smaller form of iSight for use with iTv and iPod/TelePod. This would also allow people to watch movies with friends around the world with a core animation powered keynote like Pic in Pic format.

Or perhaps ^QT8^ will provide this function.

[MacNut]

Steve will take the stage and announce that they have created artificial life that can sing every song on your iPod while cleaning your house, he says they will be called PodPeople.

[hob]

Who really needs more iLife. Honestly. I think they should bundle it with OS X, and update it all at once!

BlueVelvet, you have ruined my life forever First time I've read that! So true though!

[peharri]

Originally Posted by jtaylr77

....Steve gets another call 5 mintues later...


...pulls out iPhone

...geeks bumrush the stage and carry Steve off on their shoulders

I find it hard to believe they'll get that excited about a Cisco Wifi phone, especially if a Motorola iTunes phone doesn't do the job...

I guess we'll see more of Leopard.

We might see more of iTV. I think, contrary to what some insist upon here, that iTV will be a standalone box, requiring no additional Mac to work. There's little point in it having storage if it isn't going to be, and a consumer device requiring a computer is something I think Apple wants to get away from. At the same time, what I've seen so far is Apple seperating the media business from the computer business, and wouldn't be surprised if they actually avoid showing iTV (and iPod enhancements) at MWSF.

iPod Phone (or whatever it's called) is a no-no. I'm not ruling out it being a future Apple product, there's too much evidence it exists, I just doubt it'll be there for MWSF, both because it's not a Mac (see above comment) and because I think they'd do an actual keynote. And, as always, for Apple's sake, I hope the rumour is complete rubbish.

iLife - why, yes. Even better would be improvements to iWork, notable some of the missing components added. Apple lacks an office suite. iWork is not an office suite, and Mac enthusiasts do everyone no favours by pretending it is. If Apple are unwilling to complete iWork, they could throw their weight behind NeoOffice.

I really love the game console rumour. It sounds completely made up to me, but now would be a great time to introduce something, even if it's just a low cost Mac mini in practice. The Playstation 3 is a disaster. The Xbox 360 isn't selling in anything like the numbers Microsoft hoped. The only console that's actually moving at the moment is the Wii, and the low power of the thing means it might only have a year of marketability in it. If ever there was a time for Apple to jump into the market, it would be now. But that said, I seriously doubt they will.

[Silentwave]

Originally Posted by jtaylr77

Jobs receives a call during keynote and reaches into his pocket...

...audience errupts with joyful tears...

...pulls out iTunes compatible motorola phone....

...audience sighs....and cries....

....Steve gets another call 5 mintues later...

...pulls out iPhone

...geeks bumrush the stage and carry Steve off on their shoulders

Are you sure you don't work for Steve?