Macworld San Francisco 2007 Rumor Wrapup: Winners and Losers

[MacRumors]

After each major event, MacRumors provides a wrapup of rumors to reveal the sources of the most accurate and inaccurate information. Readers are encouraged to read our Macworld Rumor Roundup which was written prior to the actual event.

iPhone

Prior to MWSF 2007, the iPhone rumor was likely the longest running Apple rumor that had yet to come true. One of the oldest references to it that we found was this usenet post almost seven years ago:

Apple registered the domain iPhone.org in mid-December [1999]. Could this be a hint of a new hardware device or some streaming videoconferencing software to be added to QuickTime?

In 2006, the first hints of the iPhone emerged from the financial analysts. UBS, PiperJaffray, and J.P. Morgan offered early predictions that the iPhone was coming. Unfortunately, there were many conflicting reports as to the specs of the iPhone. To be fair, Apple deliberately spread false information to defuse such efforts.

ThinkSecret reports claiming that the iPhone would be Cingular-only and GSM/EDGE only turned out to be quite accurate, and LoopRumors was first to claim that the iPhone would run a 'light' version of OS X and clearly described the upcoming device as a "communicating device" with touchscreen and wireless capabilities.

Both sites, however, also made many additional claims that did not pan out, including claims that the phone would pack a 3 megapixel camera and 2.2" screen (actual: 2 MP camera, 3.5" screen; claim: ThinkSecret) and claims that the iPhone would contain videoconferencing ability (claim: LoopRumors). MacRumors own sources were also tainted by false information, as our reported artist's rendition was off the mark, and traditionally accurate Kevin Rose's leaked specs ($249/$449, slide out keyboard) were also wrong.

Appleinsider offered some confirmation to the earlier "light" OS X rumors with accurate claims that Apple was "working an an operating system based on the core technologies in Mac OS X as the basis for upcoming device."

The most accurate leak of the actual iPhone specs came from Rebecca Runkle of Morgan Stanley who described a 3.5inch full screen LCD phone which was 4/10th inch thick and made of metal. Runkle's prices were slightly off ($599 for 4GB, $649 for 8GB) but she was otherwise remarkably close to the final product.

The much-publicized Commercial Times report appears likely to be accurate, but the several other reports that the phone had been finalized and released to manufacturing were clearly inaccurate.

Finally, last minute reports from the Wall Street Journal (phone "as early as Tuesday"), Cult of Mac ("Steve Jobs has invited all of his best friends to his MacWorld SF Keynote on Tuesday"), and International Herald Tribune ("first of the next generation of devices that are closer to personal computers in pocket form") all turned out to be true.

Apple TV

AppleTV came with few surprises, and Appleinsider was on target with information that the units would not ship immediately after being shown after the show.

iLife and iWork

The lack of iLife and iWork was preceded by last-minute claims by both ThinkSecret and MacScoop that the software may not be ready (or too dependent on Leopard), although MacScoop did inaccurately add that a preview of iLife would be available.

One lesson to learn is that despite posting placeholders for iLife '07 and iWork '07, like all resellers, Amazon has no special knowledge of future Apple releases.

Mac Pros, Leopard, and More...

With Steve saying that we'd all "see him soon" at the end of the keynote presentation, what is the next step for Apple?

Leopard remains a prime target for further information from Apple, and 8-core Mac Pros are still anticipated. With the hype surrounding the iPhone, many have suggested that Apple may have delayed the 8 Core Mac Pro and Leopard demos for a future press event.

Meanwhile, thin MacBooks and Flash booting MacBooks are said to be on the horizon for 2007.

Summary

Unlike previous rumor wrapups, there were fewer clear winners and losers. Several sources clearly did have tidbits of accurate information, but much of it was diluted by the sheer volume of iPhone rumors leading up to the event.

- Rebecca Runkle of Morgan Stanley certainly deserves credit for having the most accurate physical specs of the rumored iPhone.
- Despite the ongoing litigation, ThinkSecret continues to leak accurate tidbits of information.
- Looprumors deserves credit for the first reports of the "light" OS X and "communication device".
- Flickr and YouTube "spy" photos/videos of unreleased Apple hardware have never been accurate.
- Appleinsider's accurate report about the "light" OS X also give the following exciting tidbit of information:

Apple intends to integrate the software on a couple of devices beginning early [2007], those people say, while more comprehensive plans call for it to form the bedrock of a jaw-dropping device not due to hit the market until the following year.

[mrkramer]

I was surprised that iLife and iWork did not come out. Probably the artists rendition was one of the fake versions that Apple showed to some of their workers.

[BigPrince]

So is it true that this Keynote had a much larger VIP Keynote section?

[twoodcc]

Originally Posted by mrkramer

I was surprised that iLife and iWork did not come out. Probably the artists rendition was one of the fake versions that Apple showed to some of their workers.

i was suprised about iLife and iWork also. lets hope they are released soon....

[mrkramer]

Originally Posted by twoodcc

i was suprised about iLife and iWork also. lets hope they are released soon....

I'm hoping that we will get at least iLife included with Leopard, but I don't think that it is likely.

[arn]

Originally Posted by BigPrince

So is it true that this Keynote had a much larger VIP Keynote section?

Yes, the CEOs of all the major tech companies where there, as well as Steve Job's wife and kids.

arn

[mymacluvsme]

Originally Posted by Macrumors

Macworld San Francisco 2007 Rumor Wrapup: Winners and Losers

From what I've been reading on these forums, the title should be

"Whiners and Loosers"

[Object-X]

Did I read that last part right about a jaw dropping product to be released in 2008? Or is that talking about the iPhone?

Because when I saw the iPhone my jaw dropped.

I could also detect a gleem in the eye of Steve Jobs as he hinted more was to come.

I'll just say that I think the iPhone's interface is a harbinger of things to come. Design cue and even touch functionality are going to make their way into Leopard I'm sure. The 160 dpi screen seems to forshadow new displays with very high resolution and that would require the rumored UI scaling; they might even let you do with your fingers!

[Gumpy]

Well, I know one thing is for sure:
I love Peebees!

[sw1tcher]

Me thinks they're going to use this "light" version of OS X to power the next iPod(s).

It will do everything the iPhone can do as far as the iPod functions on the iPhone go. Now that would be cool. That would actually get me to upgrade from my 3G iPod.

[.dingledorph]

Originally Posted by Macrumors

Meanwhile, thin MacBooks and Flash booting MacBooks are said to be on the horizon for 2007.

Are there more than one rumor about the "Thin Macbook"?
I would really buy this product. I think we are missing a ultraportable in the MB/MBP lineup.

[Will_reed]

Heres hoping for another stevenote with in the coming months

[Doctor Q]

I wonder how long Apple was actively working on the iPhone, given their registration of the domain in 1999.

Choosing and reserving a name don't necessarily correlate with technical development, but Apple certainly had something in mind by then.

[Multimedia]

Patience and we will all have what we want soon enough. Gotta remember this stuff is very complex and takes a long time for all the physical and intellectual parts to come together in what can only be described as amazingly more and more powerful tools.

I thought Toast 8 was among the third party surprise winners as well. It's Oct core ready and much more optimized for the Quad core Macs already. Griffen also had a lot of great new stuff. But my favorite by far was the Blackmagicdesign Intensity HDMI i/o PCIe card for Mac Pro and soon also for PCIe G5 PowerMacs. The implications it has for inexpenisve high quality High Definition Video Production are huge.

By Summer we will be in the midst of a completely new Mac Eco System that will be blowing all our minds soon enough.

Sorry I missed the opportunity to meet Arn whom I probably passed in the press room more than once without realizing it.

[Hunabku]

So if Apple puts OS X mini and multitouch on the new ipods the possibilities, with bundled hardware and software, increase dramatically. Unfortunately, they will probably lobotomize these new ipods even more than the iphone.

This is where our rumored new class of device comes in. First it combines the storage of the ipod with iphone features (wi-fi, etc) and a larger touch sceen. It has more horsepower, ports and other hardware niceties with an open environment for developers to add apps, etc.

Perhaps the whole thing (in width) is bit smaller than a macbooks keyboard - and then we could type on a near full sized virtual keyboard. Although evolution in inkwell and voice recognition might play a larger factor by next year.

[freddiecable]

1. how can people get surprised that Apple/Jobs didn't distract the iPhone announcement with iLife, Leopard, Mac's? it's quite obvious that the impact would have lessened.

2. it's also quite obvious that Apple will harness the "new platform" of iPhone and it's technologies! we will probably see an iPhone nano? I would certainly want to have a 2.5" iPhone - that smaller footprint should suite me better.

furthermore - apple has patented/developed resolution independent os of some sort. this would be very relevant on mobile devices and developing software for multiple devices. together with multitouch this can/will be very powerful.

it is going to be interesting to run the iphone. the only weak part is that it has no tactile feedback - for sms etc. lot's of people send sms without looking at their phone. don't know about USA that much - but in Europe and definitively in Sweden kids mostly sms - and they are darned fast at it. It will be hard to be able to attract these users with an interface you must look at. Actually I can think of quite a few scenarios where I don't want to look at my device when interacting...well time will tell.

[Marble]

I'm hoping that the extra time Apple has taken with Mac OS 10.5 will mean that they've got something incredible up their sleeve. The company's plans for the future are more mysterious now than ever.

[helgeg]

You forgot one important source. For some reason, it wasn't reported in the English-speaking world that the German magazine MacLife published a report in its December issue (published November 1st), that Balda would provide Apple with touchscreens for a new touchscreen iPod.

Noone believed them, but their report turned out to be true (although they didn't know the new touchscreen iPod was going to be a phone).

Here's someone who posted this is November, but no one was interested.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/archi...p/t-68162.html

[Moz4]

So when will the next Jobs keynote be? I thought these things were usually part of bigger events, like MacWorld Conference. If there's not an event, how will there be a keynote?

Or do Apple ever do press conferences?

[r-sparks]

Thanks for this report. This is one reason why MacRumors is my favorite Mac site - it's as much about the culture of Mac rumors and news, as it is about the rumors themselves.

[mark88]

I think that Apple realized that the iPhone announcement would get mass press attention and therefore chose to announce it early for the following reasons:

1. Vista launch is days away
2. CES week
3. They had to announce it before getting approval

If they had shown Leopard aswell it would have got little attention so they chose to leave it out. Also, Apple probably realized that these little special events they have been doing have been pretty successful so maybe the decided to hold one just for Leopard.

Ofcourse, the flip side is that Leopard is way behind schedule and just not ready for prime time. I also think that iLife apps are going to be Leopard only.

[mark88]

Originally Posted by freddiecable

1. how can people get surprised that Apple/Jobs didn't distract the iPhone announcement with iLife, Leopard, Mac's? it's quite obvious that the impact would have lessened.

I half agree, I think it wouldn't have lessened the impact of the iPhone, but the iPhone would dwarf the software related announcements and no one would be taking about them.

I'm sure Apple wants lots of attention of Leopard when they are ready

[GregA]

Originally Posted by twoodcc

i was suprised about iLife and iWork also. lets hope they are released soon....

Well with iLife and iWork, Apple can have a small release and the mac-web will go crazy. IF it has some great new features, it'll be advertised by many newspaper reports as well (which would have ignored them if shown alongside the iPhone).

Same goes for a macbook thin. Or 8-core Macs.

10.5 gets left out a bit. Can't really have a press conference until they're ready to release it. I guess they could release iLife/iWork and preview 10.5 simultaneously (since iLife might have some 10.5 specific features??!?)... if that's the plan, I guess it'd happen close to the Vista release?

[Cubert]

I think that the "jaw-dropping" product to be released in 2008 will be an iPhone with video conferencing capabilities.

Beam me up, Scotty!

[Bobo68]

This article said someone refers to cool future products for the "lite" OS-X in the new iPhone. Has anyone considered smart TV's that have the apple TV built into them and an OS?