AppleTV is the only viable option right now for savvy consumers who want to view their high definition home movies on their HD sets.
I'll buy the moment it comes out. I did some test exporting some HDV footage to AppleTV 720p video and it looks really good. I'm excited by this.
Er, how are you recording HD home movies? Presumably whatever is recording them can play them back, no?
Anyways, we'll see how the AppleTV does, but I'm not really sure it's going to be a smash success like the iPod is. It seems a bit limited, and the pricing of the whole thing is off, for me. $300 for the box. $2 for TV shows, maybe more if they go HD. $10+ for movies, no rental (which I maintain is a mistake).
TiVo has pledged to produce a more affordable HD recorder this year, so assuming they can get down to that $300 price (from the $700 it is now) you could get an HD DVR that plays back purchased AND rented content (via Amazon) and had a terrific UI (TiVo's UI is one of the best, although it has stagnated in the last few years). Amazon could EASILY launch an HD TV and movie service to go with the new TiVo HD DVR as well.
The 360, as mentioned, has plans to offer more streaming premium media, and does at least an adequate job of it (I've not used it, so I can't say if it's a great setup or not... but it at minimum gets the job done).
We'll see, but I think Apple needs to do something that separates it from the pack if they are going to succeed here.