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Old Jul 16, 2003, 08:51 AM   #1
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Apple's Qtr 3 - 2003 Financial Results Conference Call. 5:3...


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Link: Apple's Qtr 3 - 2003 Financial Results Conference Call. 5:30 EST Today.

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Old Jul 16, 2003, 10:13 AM   #2
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$1,000,000,000,000 due to tons of iPods. Maybe.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 10:54 AM   #3
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Probably red ink, at least for operations

Quote:
Originally posted by gotohamish
$1,000,000,000,000 due to tons of iPods. Maybe.
I'll predict that they'll be quite red in operating revenues due to:

o drop in PowerMac sales due to stale product, G5 rumours and then the announcement of the G5 (possibly affecting Q3 as well, if G5 shipments are late or slow)

o drop in TiBook 15" sales due to rumours of replacements

o Music Store startup expenses not covered by revenues (not surprising for the first quarter, obviously)


Of course, Apple can play lots of games with the cash cache in order to get the bottom line to come out black, so I'm not even going to guess on the "official" figures....
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 10:57 AM   #4
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I am hoping they will announce the new powerbooks here.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 10:59 AM   #5
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lol, announce new powerbooks.. lol
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 10:59 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally posted by hvfsl
I am hoping they will announce the new powerbooks here.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 11:08 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally posted by hvfsl
I am hoping they will announce the new powerbooks here.
Funniest thing I read all day....
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 11:20 AM   #8
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I'll be listening for remarks about the cost differences between the G4 and G5. I remember reading that we thought that the G5 was actually less expensive to Apple than the G4. If that's proven out, it bodes well for the bottom line going forward. IMHO, this will be the nugget of info that we're looking to hear.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 11:59 AM   #9
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AAPL is currently up .13 on a downmarket day.

This means (1) the market doesn't give a crap about updated Ti books, and (2) a lot of people are expecting good news when the market closes.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:07 PM   #10
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Are they taking questions? Maybe someone will ask where the hell the new 15" PowerBooks are. Of course, they would just get the usual "We do not comment on future products.." line but still, I want someone to get in Steve's face with this!

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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:13 PM   #11
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whats funny about wanting the new powerbooks to come out, i want them out too. there taking forever to update them.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:14 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by idea_hamster
I'll be listening for remarks about the cost differences between the G4 and G5. I remember reading that we thought that the G5 was actually less expensive to Apple than the G4. If that's proven out, it bodes well for the bottom line going forward. IMHO, this will be the nugget of info that we're looking to hear.
Maybe so, but the addition of S-ATA drives, PCI-X and more may level that out.

still a good thing though!
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:23 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally posted by idea_hamster
I'll be listening for remarks about the cost differences between the G4 and G5. I remember reading that we thought that the G5 was actually less expensive to Apple than the G4. If that's proven out, it bodes well for the bottom line going forward. IMHO, this will be the nugget of info that we're looking to hear.
another thing is that the systems needed r&d and production money, which has no way of being returned this quarter. ohhh but next quarter will be bright.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:40 PM   #14
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Financial Conference

Quote:
I'll be listening for remarks about the cost differences between the G4 and G5
Apple never talks about the manufacturing costs of their products. An analyst may ask when the new 15" Powerbook will be coming out, but Apple will give the answer they always give, "We do not discuss upcoming products".

Apple wil not be in the red. They will show a modest profit due to good sales of 12" and 17" PBs, relatively good sales for the iBook and great sales for the iPod and new iApps.

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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:45 PM   #15
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Re: Probably red ink, at least for operations

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Originally posted by AidenShaw
...Of course, Apple can play lots of games with the cash cache in order to get the bottom line to come out black, so I'm not even going to guess on the "official" figures....
Well beyond the revenue figures here's a story quote from Investor's Business Daily on July 15th...

"Apple's share of U.S. consumer PC unit sales rose to 3.4% in the first quarter, up from 1.9% two years earlier. Its share of dollars spent on consumer PCs rose from 2.3% to 5.2%.

Things are brighter in the U.S. consumer notebook PC segment. Apple's unit market share rose from 0.3% to 6.8% in the two years. And its share of the market based on dollars spent rose from 0.2% to 8%.

"It takes time to gain back market share," said Ron Johnson, senior vice president of retail for Apple. "We're really pleased with our market share growth, primarily in the consumer business."


All in all...I'd say this growth spells extremely good news for Apple and the introduction of the G5 will only help strengthen that position.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:50 PM   #16
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It appears that the analysts are forecasting a slight profit (something like two cents per share). However, I would not be at all surprised if they post another loss. With the steep decline in PowerMac sales, decline in PowerBook sales (IMO, not as yet reported), decline in world-wide market share, startup costs for the Music Store, startup costs related to the brick and mortar Apple Stores, and development costs for the G5 I would expect that they show a slight to moderate loss.

However, it they do show a profit and they do that without selling off assets (which they have often done in the past) then everyone at Apple deserves a big congratulations. I mean, showing any profit at all in this economy and with Apple's level of investment in the future would be pretty amazing.

Of course, I don't expect that investors will see 2 cents per share as anything to get excited about (and frankly they shouldn't). But for the true Mac faithful any level of profit would be "insanely great."
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:58 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally posted by fpnc
...With the steep decline in PowerMac sales, decline in PowerBook sales (IMO, not as yet reported), decline in world-wide market share, startup costs for the Music Store, startup costs related to the brick and mortar Apple Stores, and development costs for the G5 I would expect that they show a slight to moderate loss.
I think they have already absorbed most of the developments costs of the G5 by now, especially if it is shipping in late August. The article I quoted above did mention the startup cost of the Apple stores and that will affect profit, but that is a given and the return is expected to be great with those retail outlets, just give it some time.

As for the decline in unit sales you mentioned, well the PowerMac has suffered, but that will be corrected with the G5 intro...and as I quoted above the PowerBook has had HUGE growth.

Things are much brighter than many make it out to seem.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 12:58 PM   #18
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Re: Re: Probably red ink, at least for operations

Quote:
Originally posted by Rustus Maximus
Well beyond the revenue figures here's a story quote from Investor's Business Daily on July 15th...

"Apple's share of U.S. consumer PC unit sales rose to 3.4% in the first quarter, up from 1.9% two years earlier. Its share of dollars spent on consumer PCs rose from 2.3% to 5.2%.

Things are brighter in the U.S. consumer notebook PC segment. Apple's unit market share rose from 0.3% to 6.8% in the two years. And its share of the market based on dollars spent rose from 0.2% to 8%"


All in all...I'd say this growth spells extremely good news for Apple and the introduction of the G5 will only help strengthen that position.
The problem, however, is that this growth is only in the U.S. consumer market. Apple's world-wide market share (total) is down and in any case the consumer products have the lowest profit margins. It's good that they are selling more iBooks, eMacs, and iMacs in the U.S. but I don't know it that will offset the world-wide declines and the problems with their high-end products (PowerMacs and PowerBooks). Next quarter should be better, assuming that they ship the G5 in quantity and update the PowerBook line.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 01:14 PM   #19
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Re: Re: Re: Probably red ink, at least for operations

Quote:
Originally posted by fpnc
The problem, however, is that this growth is only in the U.S. consumer market. Apple's world-wide market share (total) is down and in any case the consumer products have the lowest profit margins. It's good that they are selling more iBooks, eMacs, and iMacs in the U.S. but I don't know it that will offset the world-wide declines and the problems with their high-end products (PowerMacs and PowerBooks). Next quarter should be better, assuming that they ship the G5 in quantity and update the PowerBook line.
True their worldwide market share is down, but most of the rest of the world is, economically speaking, not as well developed as the U.S., Western European or Japanese markets. Growth for Apple in the less developed countries will be hard anyway due to their cost factor, but Apple is trying to compete on that front as well with the eMac, etc..

The U.S. market is the most important, like it or not, and if you can gain ground here given the saturation and vast playing field of competitors you are doing something right. Besides...computer-wise...as the U.S. goes...so usually goes the world. So if Apple can mount a serious challenge here and gain ground...they will gain ground elsewhere.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 01:17 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rustus Maximus
As for the decline in unit sales you mentioned, well the PowerMac has suffered, but that will be corrected with the G5 intro...and as I quoted above the PowerBook has had HUGE growth.
Actually, I think those numbers were for the iBook, not the PowerBooks. The consumer line is the iBook, the PowerBook is the "Pro" line. Certainly the 17" and 12" PowerBooks have added some customers; however, the 15" and in truth the entire G4 notebook line is beginning to look pretty weak in comparison to the offerings from WINTEL (the Pentium M Centrino products could be considered PowerBook "killers"). I suspect that 15" PowerBook sales are down, whether the 17" and 12" will make up the difference is uncertain, they may have just siphoned off sales that would have gone to the 15" line.

Also, as has been mentioned, you need to read between the lines in many of Apple's quarterly reports. They will often try to offset operating losses by selling assets and while a profit is a "profit" you can't indefinitely spend more than you make (at least you can't do so and still grow your net worth).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that it is all doom and gloom. IMO Apple has actually done a very good job over the last several years, just don't expect (or believe) that things are going to be easy from this point on. Frankly, any profit would be great, but I'm not expecting much.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 01:29 PM   #21
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Not to mention earnings (interest) on $4Billion in the bank...
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 01:50 PM   #22
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I wonder why it's at 5:30PM EST, when we here on the East Coast are all still in Daylight Savings Time. Is it being held in Indiana?

5:30PM EST = 6:30PM EDT.

And BTW, MacRumors' clock is still wrong. It says 7:45PM GMT, which may be the correct London time (British Summer Time), but it is not correct GMT, which is 18:45. GMT does not have Daylight Savings!
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 02:27 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally posted by cubist
I wonder why it's at 5:30PM EST, when we here on the East Coast are all still in Daylight Savings Time. Is it being held in Indiana?

5:30PM EST = 6:30PM EDT.

And BTW, MacRumors' clock is still wrong. It says 7:45PM GMT, which may be the correct London time (British Summer Time), but it is not correct GMT, which is 18:45. GMT does not have Daylight Savings!
Wow, Daylight Savings Time does a number on the clocks over there! Who would've known that DST would've changed the clock by 11 hours! Jeezum Crow!
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 03:32 PM   #24
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Originally posted by yzedf
Not to mention earnings (interest) on $4Billion in the bank...
Most of it is invested....not literally cash.

Anyway, several recent profitable quarters the interest and other income from the "cash" tipped the scales from "loss" to "profit" - Apple lost money on operations.
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Old Jul 16, 2003, 03:41 PM   #25
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It appears that the analysts are forecasting a slight profit (something like two cents per share). However, I would not be at all surprised if they post another loss.
I don't mean to burst your bubble but companies just don't fall below analysts expectations too often. Most of them meet or exceed expectations, especially in a rally like the markets have been experiencing. I guarantee that Apple will not shoot themselves in the foot by falling short of expectations, not with the momentum they are establishing.
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