Flash Shortage due to iPod and iPhone?

MacRumors · Jul 19, 2007, 11:29 AM

A report by the DramExchange.com indicates that Apple's iPod and iPhone could use up to 25% of the world's production of NAND Flash chips this quarter.

This, along with production delays amongst NAND Flash manufacturers could contribute to shortages and rising prices.

NAND Flash supplies and pricing could also affect rumored plans for a NAND-flash based subnotebook from Apple - which was last pinpointed for release in late 2007/early 2008.

Article Link

Grimace · Jul 19, 2007, 11:34 AM

It's hard to imagine that other companies still want to compete with Apple!

macpeter · 12:07 PM

That would be amazing

Eraserhead · Jul 19, 2007, 11:39 AM

wow that's pretty impressive for one company, I suppose it's because they use such high capacities compared to cameras...

Clive At Five · Jul 19, 2007, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macrumors

A report by the DramExchange.com indicates that Apple's iPod and iPhone could use up to 25% of the world's production of NAND Flash chips this quarter.

I find this hard to believe...

What about allllllllll the other PMPs and PSPs and Wiis and whatever else?!

25% globally?

Wow...

-Clive

Gymnut · Jul 19, 2007, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macpeter

That would be amazing

What would be amazing? That the shortages and high demand will cause prices to rise?

Cinch · Jul 19, 2007, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gymnut

What would be amazing? That the shortages and high demand will cause prices to rise?

I smell a good opportunity for price fixing. Be aware of trade publication

Yankees 4 Life · Jul 19, 2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cinch

I smell a good opportunity for price fixing. Be aware of trade publication

agreed, i'd be very wary of sandisk and other flash makers, i wonder how they are going to spin their new price floors....

ajhill · Jul 19, 2007, 12:08 PM

25% of all flash memory in the world? Come on! Yes, iPods and iPhones are selling out the door, but 25% of world demand? Did Apple sell 5 million iPhones so far, 10 million. Not likely.

This sounds like a BS press release from an industry that is seeing intense pricing pressure. They are looking to increase those prices and one way to do it is to try to create the impression of constrained supply.

If Apple is currently using 1/4 of all the worlds supply, then it's REALLY going to be an interesting earnings report next week.

Smells like the flash memory boys are looking to drive up prices to me.

Doctor Q · Jul 19, 2007, 12:10 PM

If this is correct, the shortage was caused by sales of these successful products, and the result may be rising prices of flash chips, which would produce higher costs to produce iPods and iPhones. Therefore, if we favor lower prices, we should tell our friends not to buy iPods or iPhones!

I doubt I'll be able to do that!

aardwolf · Jul 19, 2007, 12:20 PM

You know what makes prices go down? One of the many things is mass production. I'm relatively certain that all of the factories making flash chips in the world are not producing at capacity, so any price increase will be minimal and temporary.

lookmark · Jul 19, 2007, 12:20 PM

I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.

CrackedButter · Jul 19, 2007, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookmark

I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.

It was always likely.

reallynotnick · Jul 19, 2007, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookmark

I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.

At the current price of ~$6 a GB, I see that highly doubtful. 32GB = $192 128GB = $768

This would be a nice time to open up some new NAND factory I would assume.

EagerDragon · Jul 19, 2007, 12:35 PM

Excelent for Apple in multiple ways:
Their agreements with Flsh man is working
Their price for memory is not affected
They are selling a lot
Their competitor prices are going up and their ability to deliver is being affected.

LoganT · Jul 19, 2007, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lookmark

I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.

128 GB flash?

Prepare to pay more than an iPhone for that.

Sun Baked · Jul 19, 2007, 12:46 PM

Remember Apple got in line early and plopped down some megabucks for a Flash supply awhile ago, so them eating a significant portion of their supplier volume isn't too odd.

But the future Flash products sure will be constrained.

davidmyers · 01:04 PM

It would be hard to believe if apple could pull off a sufficiently sized
flash drive laptop in the next 6 months, given this.

(Plus, I imagine apple will also want to go firewire with the shuffle soon too.
And the aTV can't be too far behind, etc etc)

Altogether, their demand for flash memory must be astronomical right now,
and can only figure to get worse for the next year or so.

If yer buyin a digital camera chip or a cell phone flash chip this fall/xmas,
the price might be way up depending on which type of chip it takes!

bigandy · Jul 19, 2007, 01:12 PM

bet all the other manufacturers are going to be cursing the iPhone/iPod success for a while

Rocketman · Jul 19, 2007, 01:43 PM

It might be helpful to view this article in terms of "timing". Apple has just ramped the largest new gadget release in a long time which is flash based. It just dropped a couple of weeks ago. Of course flash inventories are constrained. The ramp is still occuring and Apple has stated they intend to sell 10 million of these things in about a years time. They have already sold between a million and 1.3 million of them by some estimates. Flash production is constrained, so it can withstand steady state sales, but not sudden large sales as occured with the release of YA iPod Nano and the iPhone in short order. Apple is hoarding flash with the strategic move of prepaid purchase contracts which floats the price down as sales prices drop. This may simply defer the timing of that drop.

Rocketman

SiliconAddict · Jul 19, 2007, 01:47 PM

Good. Maybe this will make Apple think twice about going all flash. Granted up til now that concept has been purely rumor but anything that keeps such an idea in the realm of rumors I'm all for.

Stampyhead · Jul 19, 2007, 01:53 PM

If Apple is using this much Flash memory maybe they should think about opening their own factory and start making the chips themselves. Then they have better control of pricing and availability.

jacobj · Jul 19, 2007, 02:01 PM

This is not the first time that this excuse has been used: I seem to remember that a similar claim was made regarding Apple's consumption of Flash memory about 18 months ago.

I must admit that the stat is a little too extreme to believe, but I'll ask the question that occurred to me back then; does the ipod Nano, Shuffle and iPhone use single flash cards, or do they consists of several smaller ones? If it's the latter, then it makes some sense to me; but still!

Archmagination · Jul 19, 2007, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jacobj

This is not the first time that this excuse has been used: I seem to remember that a similar claim was made regarding Apple's consumption of Flash memory about 18 months ago.

I must admit that the stat is a little too extreme to believe, but I'll ask the question that occurred to me back then; does the ipod Nano, Shuffle and iPhone use single flash cards, or do they consists of several smaller ones? If it's the latter, then it makes some sense to me; but still!

The Shuffle uses single flash cards, while the Nano uses 2 flash cards. I don't know about the iPhone, but I think someone commented on it using 1 flash card.. I am not sure though.

corywoolf · 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davidmyers

It would be hard to believe if apple could pull off a sufficiently sized
flash drive laptop in the next 6 months, given this.

(Plus, I imagine apple will also want to go firewire with the shuffle soon too.
And the aTV can't be too far behind, etc etc)

Altogether, their demand for flash memory must be astronomical right now,
and can only figure to get worse for the next year or so.

If yer buyin a digital camera chip or a cell phone flash chip this fall/xmas,
the price might be way up depending on which type of chip it takes!

Firewire Shuffle... yeah.... ok.... I take it your drunk or really tired or don't know much about Apple. Either way, welcome to MacRumors, try not to take anything personally.

You may want to read up on Apple in the Guides here.

Edit: I am starting to think you were trying to be sarcastic?

Jul 19, 2007, 11:29 AM	#1
MacRumors macrumors bot Join Date: Apr 2001	Flash Shortage due to iPod and iPhone? A report by the DramExchange.com indicates that Apple's iPod and iPhone could use up to 25% of the world's production of NAND Flash chips this quarter. This, along with production delays amongst NAND Flash manufacturers could contribute to shortages and rising prices. NAND Flash supplies and pricing could also affect rumored plans for a NAND-flash based subnotebook from Apple - which was last pinpointed for release in late 2007/early 2008. Article Link

Jul 19, 2007, 11:34 AM	#2
Grimace Contributor Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: with Hamburglar.	It's hard to imagine that other companies still want to compete with Apple! __________________ Canon 1Ds Mk III • Canon 5D MkII 16-35mm f/2.8L II • 24-70mm f/2.8L • 70-200mm f/2.8L IS 50mm f/1.2L • 85mm f/1.2L • 135mm f/2L • 300mm f/2.8L IS

Jul 19, 2007, 11:34 AM	#3
macpeter macrumors newbie Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Glasgow, Scotland	wow That would be amazing Last edited by Doctor Q : Jul 19, 2007 at 12:07 PM. Reason: no need to quote entire first post

Jul 19, 2007, 12:10 PM	#10
Doctor Q macrumors god Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: at the table with countless relatives	If this is correct, the shortage was caused by sales of these successful products, and the result may be rising prices of flash chips, which would produce higher costs to produce iPods and iPhones. Therefore, if we favor lower prices, we should tell our friends not to buy iPods or iPhones! I doubt I'll be able to do that! __________________ "You've just been abducted, of course you need crepes!" -- Walter Bishop

Jul 19, 2007, 12:20 PM	#11
aardwolf macrumors member Join Date: May 2007	Economics You know what makes prices go down? One of the many things is mass production. I'm relatively certain that all of the factories making flash chips in the world are not producing at capacity, so any price increase will be minimal and temporary.

Jul 19, 2007, 11:39 AM	#4
Eraserhead Contributor Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Oxford, UK	wow that's pretty impressive for one company, I suppose it's because they use such high capacities compared to cameras...

Jul 19, 2007, 12:08 PM	#9
ajhill macrumors 6502 Join Date: May 2007	25% of all flash memory in the world? Come on! Yes, iPods and iPhones are selling out the door, but 25% of world demand? Did Apple sell 5 million iPhones so far, 10 million. Not likely. This sounds like a BS press release from an industry that is seeing intense pricing pressure. They are looking to increase those prices and one way to do it is to try to create the impression of constrained supply. If Apple is currently using 1/4 of all the worlds supply, then it's REALLY going to be an interesting earnings report next week. Smells like the flash memory boys are looking to drive up prices to me.

Jul 19, 2007, 12:20 PM	#12
lookmark macrumors newbie Join Date: Apr 2002	I think that all-flash full-size iPod (32/64/128GB) is looking increasingly likely.

Jul 19, 2007, 12:35 PM	#15
EagerDragon macrumors 68010 Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: MA, USA	Excelent for Apple in multiple ways: Their agreements with Flsh man is working Their price for memory is not affected They are selling a lot Their competitor prices are going up and their ability to deliver is being affected. __________________ Security is a state of mind, Nothing can ever be fully secured and be functional. Therefore iBricks are fully secured.

Jul 19, 2007, 12:46 PM	#17
Sun Baked macrumors 603 Join Date: May 2002	Remember Apple got in line early and plopped down some megabucks for a Flash supply awhile ago, so them eating a significant portion of their supplier volume isn't too odd. But the future Flash products sure will be constrained. __________________ May you be plagued by images of Richard Simmons flouncing through you brain, and squat thrusting his way though all waking thoughts.

Jul 19, 2007, 12:56 PM	#18
davidmyers macrumors member Join Date: Jul 2007	It would be hard to believe if apple could pull off a sufficiently sized flash drive laptop in the next 6 months, given this. (Plus, I imagine apple will also want to go firewire with the shuffle soon too. And the aTV can't be too far behind, etc etc) Altogether, their demand for flash memory must be astronomical right now, and can only figure to get worse for the next year or so. If yer buyin a digital camera chip or a cell phone flash chip this fall/xmas, the price might be way up depending on which type of chip it takes! Last edited by Doctor Q : Jul 19, 2007 at 01:04 PM. Reason: no need to quote entire first post

Jul 19, 2007, 01:12 PM	#19
bigandy macrumors Demi-God Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Soho, London	bet all the other manufacturers are going to be cursing the iPhone/iPod success for a while __________________ "any day that involves cat pee is a really bad day" - iBlue ǝןƃooɹɯ

Jul 19, 2007, 01:43 PM	#20
Rocketman macrumors 68020 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Claremont, CA	It might be helpful to view this article in terms of "timing". Apple has just ramped the largest new gadget release in a long time which is flash based. It just dropped a couple of weeks ago. Of course flash inventories are constrained. The ramp is still occuring and Apple has stated they intend to sell 10 million of these things in about a years time. They have already sold between a million and 1.3 million of them by some estimates. Flash production is constrained, so it can withstand steady state sales, but not sudden large sales as occured with the release of YA iPod Nano and the iPhone in short order. Apple is hoarding flash with the strategic move of prepaid purchase contracts which floats the price down as sales prices drop. This may simply defer the timing of that drop. Rocketman __________________ Think Different-ly! Looking for an iPhone dev with way too much time on her hands for BASIC programs I have.

Jul 19, 2007, 01:47 PM	#21
SiliconAddict macrumors 601 Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Burnsville, Minnesota, USA	Good. Maybe this will make Apple think twice about going all flash. Granted up til now that concept has been purely rumor but anything that keeps such an idea in the realm of rumors I'm all for. __________________ -iPod Video 160GB -MacBook Pro Core 2 Duo 2.33Ghz/3GB RAM/250GB -Newton 4700 (a.k.a iPaq 4700) -Dell 2405FPW 24" Widescreen

Jul 19, 2007, 01:53 PM	#22
Stampyhead macrumors 68020 Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: London, UK	If Apple is using this much Flash memory maybe they should think about opening their own factory and start making the chips themselves. Then they have better control of pricing and availability.

Jul 19, 2007, 02:01 PM	#23
jacobj macrumors 6502a Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Jersey	This is not the first time that this excuse has been used: I seem to remember that a similar claim was made regarding Apple's consumption of Flash memory about 18 months ago. I must admit that the stat is a little too extreme to believe, but I'll ask the question that occurred to me back then; does the ipod Nano, Shuffle and iPhone use single flash cards, or do they consists of several smaller ones? If it's the latter, then it makes some sense to me; but still! __________________ "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule" - Friedrich Nietzsche

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