Only 146,000 iPhone activations Opening Weekend

[Grimace]

From AT&T's quarterly report, detailed here:

* Sales of the Apple iPhone have been robust. The June 29 launch allowed for less than two days of sales and activations before the end of the quarter. In that time, AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers, more than 40 percent of them new subscribers. Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels.

That's not good...

[rdowns]

The only reason it's "not good" is because everyone had bought into the ridiculous hype on the numbers sold. Now that ATT has spilled the beans, maybe Apple will be forthcoming with numbers on their earning conference call tomorrow.

[DeaconGraves]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But weren't there major issues with the activiation server that first weekend?

That number is lower than I expected, but for two days that ain't shabby.

[mrowl]

Thats just Friday (29), and Sat (30)?

Needs to see the whole weekend, and week after to judge how well it sold.

[Grimace]

There were definitely activation issues. I bought mine on Friday, and didn't get it fully activated until Saturday night. Even still, the numbers are waaaaay lower than all of the hype suggested (hence AAPL plummeting this morning).

The guy ringing me up said that I was one of the first people to only buy 1 phone, suggesting that some were being bought as gifts or to be resold. Who knows, I guess we'll know at 5pm Wednesday how many iPhones were actually purchased vs. how many were activated.

[QCassidy352]

well, this explains the beating AAPL is taking this morning.

[killmoms]

For reference, I didn't get totally activated until a WEEK after I purchased my iPhone. I wouldn't count on opening-weekend activations as being any more accurate than the inflated estimates of how many phones sold.

The market should really just wait for Apple to announce it in their earnings call (which I'm certain they will).

[defeated]

Im not sure there would be >10% of buyers having activation problem.

Lets wait for apple's number, if they are going to show it.

[gnasher729]

Originally Posted by killmoms

For reference, I didn't get totally activated until a WEEK after I purchased my iPhone. I wouldn't count on opening-weekend activations as being any more accurate than the inflated estimates of how many phones sold.

The market should really just wait for Apple to announce it in their earnings call (which I'm certain they will).

Apple will probably not even mention them in their earnings call, because anyone who bought in June still had the right to return them within 14 days. And Apple doesn't mind putting a little damper on their share price, they have done that in the past.

[yoman]

This number only peaks more interest into how many were actually sold. I hope pple will release more information and numbers in their conference call.

[aristobrat]

Originally Posted by mrowl

Thats just Friday (29), and Sat (30)?

Needs to see the whole weekend, and week after to judge how well it sold.

Right, AT&T's quarter ended on Saturday, June 30th.

[megfilmworks]

This is really just one day. Lots of people could not get on that first night and next day. The full weekend numbers of sales is the most important benchmark.

[defeated]

also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.

[Lancetx]

Either way, somebody here was greatly stretching the truth. Either AT&T had FAR greater initial activation problems than they admitted to (they claimed only 2% had issues), or iPhone sales were far lower than the analysts said they were, or a combination of the two. I never believed the 2% story from AT&T myself, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't more like 20%, but they'll never admit to it. We'll find out a lot more when Apple reports their quarterly numbers tomorrow afternoon.

[powderblue17]

If I remember correctly Apple was almost completely sold out of iPhones by Sunday night so I reckon they sold as many as they had prepared to sell however many that was.

[megfilmworks]

Originally Posted by defeated

also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.

Good point, we may never have exact numbers in units with all the tricky bookkeeping.

[plumbingandtech]

Originally Posted by Lancetx

Either way, somebody here was greatly stretching the truth. Either AT&T had FAR greater initial activation problems than they admitted to (they claimed only 2% had issues), or iPhone sales were far lower than the analysts said they were, or a combination of the two. I never believed the 2% story from AT&T myself, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't more like 20%, but they'll never admit to it. We'll find out a lot more when Apple reports their quarterly numbers tomorrow afternoon.

And where did those anylysts that I read said "250k" - "1 million" get their numbers.

Yep. Out their behinds. No one with a right mind should take their numbers seriously so I for one won't use what they said as a benchmark when apple releases their numbers.

[yoman]

146,000 iPhones may not sound like much but at an average retail price of $550 that makes over $80 million dollars in revenue in just 2 days. Which is a significant number.

[stagi]

I bet there is a small percent who didn't get activated those 2 days because of problems or if they were a gift to someone they might have been activated a few days later. That might add 10 or 20k to the figures but they will still be lower than expected. Hopefully Mac sales will be a highlight tomorrow to keep the stock from sinking lower.

[bravedeer]

But Apple probably has to get at least 500M-1B in revenue before there's any real profit if you factor in the years of R&D.

Originally Posted by yoman

146,000 iPhones may not sound like much but at an average retail price of $550 that makes over $80 million dollars in revenue in just 2 days. Which is a significant number.

[Grimace]

Originally Posted by defeated

also, cnet is saying that apple will calculate profit in a way that including the service fee shared with at&t in 24 month.

so, you can't match apple's number directly with number of units sold.

Actually you can. Apple has the option of reporting the number of iPhones if it chooses. The 24 month spread is how Apple is choosing to report the revenue, not the number of units sold.

[whooleytoo]

Originally Posted by yoman

146,000 iPhones may not sound like much but at an average retail price of $550 that makes over $80 million dollars in revenue in just 2 days. Which is a significant number.

Bizarrely - it seems in the market "good" or "poor" sales are almost irrelevant; what's important is "more than" or "less than" expectations. Expectations were very high, and now Apple's share price is suffering.

[plumbingandtech]

Originally Posted by bravedeer

But Apple probably has to get at least 500M-1B in revenue before there's any real profit if you factor in the years of R&D.

I would love to know this number.

I would guess more along the 200 million but that is a total guess.

[defeated]

"choose to report this way" is a interesting argument.

i just want to know the number sold. and with an indirect number obtained through an under cover equation. apple just makes a simple question ddifficult.

yes, i can try to calculate, but i will never know the accurate # this way.

[MonkeyClaw]

Originally Posted by QCassidy352

well, this explains the beating AAPL is taking this morning.

Yea but the whole market this morning is doing poorly so I wouldn't worry too much.