Apple Marketshare, iTMS Windows and Apple as a Software Company...

[MacRumors]

Yesterday, Apple's Chief Financial Officer spoke at the Smith Barney Citigroup, Inc. 2003 Technology Conference and provided some forward looking thoughts on Apple's position. (Webstream available)

Key notes from the Speech:

- PowerMac G5 2.0GHz machines now shipping
- 7 Million active Mac OS X users.
- Panther is due before the end of this calendar year.
- Over 5 million Safari downloads since 1.0 release.
- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"
- "We're committed to porting iTunes to the Windows platform by the end of the calendar year"
- The iTunes Music Store for Windows is thought to convince people to purchase iPods and -- over time -- Macintoshes.
- US Consumer Marketshare increasing from 1.2% to 3.5% from Q1 2001 -> Q1 2003.
- Education Marketshare increased from 15% to 16% from 3Q 2002 -> 3Q 2003
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

This Apple August 2003 Investor Presentation PDF provides slides that seem to follow Anderson's talk -- and provides graphs which are referenced in his presentation.

MacObserver provides their own notes on the speech.

[szark]

Originally posted by Macrumors
"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that become over time less dependant on hardware"

I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...

As long as they also keep the PPC around, I'll be happy.

[keithcobbett]

Interesting. I'd like to see them retake the education market again though. This is definately a start.

[chazmox]

This sounds good...

Maybe both the Panther and iTunes prediction are somewhat conservative and we'll see both well before the end of the year.

Marketshare has been generally going in the right direction. I don't see any comments on the share growth in laptops - maybe that's because of the late Powerbook updates ( or then again I haven't read the entire PDF presentation ).

[arn]

Originally posted by szark
I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...

I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

[cubist]

Re becoming more of a software business: I'm glad they view this as a gradual process. Since all the hardware construction is outsourced, there are fewer jobs to protect, which is what killed Star Trek.

iTunes for Windows will be a good litmus test. But I don't expect it to be very successful. In the Windows world, Microsoft has been ruthless about absorbing products, either bundling lookalikes with the OS, cloning, or buying successful companies outright. I expect Microsoft to come out with a "Photoshop killer" fairly soon. The Windows software market is a vast wasteland.

[Abercrombieboy]

It is interesting to see that Apple is number #1 in education laptop sales and yet there are so many rumors circulating that Apple is soon stopping iBook production and moving on with offering only professional level laptops. I would tell Apple don't kill the iBook and hand the whole education market away. No school is going to buy fancy Albooks for 5th graders!

[szark]

Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

That's true -- it could mean a lot of things.

I was trying to say that before now, I really didn't think that Apple would change their strategy. But now it seems to me that they are trying to shift to a position where they could lower hardware prices/margins, or allow clones, or even allow multiple architectures.

[irmongoose]

The webstream doesn't work in any browser I tried. Hmm...

Well, anyways, like others pointed out, that statement took me by surprise there. I... I'm speechless.

DO YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS!?

:faints:



irmongoose

[9hundred]

itunes for window is a good idea

[montecristo]

Originally posted by szark

I think this statement is extremely interesting -- maybe they really are going to make an Intel version of OS X someday...

Originally posted by arn
I think it is extremely interesting... as Apple is finally admitted what everone has been saying and noticing.

I don't necessarily think it means what you're saying... but still interesting.

arn

I think for Apple, having a healthy software business will help it stay competitive (and leading-edge) in its hardware business. For one thing, it will generate lots of revenue for R&D and for keeping the Apple retail stores open, and for another thing, it will keep people loyal to their macs, so we don't have to rely on other market pressures, like M$ buying Virtual PC or 3rd party designers like Adobe and Intuit always threatening to stop their mac updates.

And, as pointed out in the speech, having good software to show to Windows users will help entice people to check out the mac and hopefully buy one.

Originally posted by Macrumors
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

What I also found interesting was the point about Apple leading the portable market. It might be easier for Apple to compete here because in the portable market, power and design (i.e. portability and weight) are probably a bit more important than price. It is also much harder to design a good laptop at a low price, so Dell and Compaq and all the other PC-box makers can't as easily put together a price-competitor, unlike in the desktop market, where consumers may not be able to justify paying double the price for a iMac when they can get a Gateway or Compaq. (Obviously these folks have not seen the light...and have not done their overall value and enjoyment versus frustration calculations...) But so it goes. The 30% of education market portable users will one day graduate and get desktops to go with their laptops. We'll be waiting....

[jxyama]

panther by the end of the calender year... i guess that takes care of some of us who wanted to wait a few more weeks to get panther for free with their macs. now the wait is a few months to get the "free" panther...

[deepkid]

Before you freak out, don't assume that Apple is going to become a software-only corporation. Comprehend what was said... that they would become less dependent on hardware, which is smart of them.

The less that Apple has to deal with Motorola-esque catastrophes, the better.

[JoeRadar]

Originally posted by cubist
I expect Microsoft to come out with a "Photoshop killer" fairly soon.

I think MS has already announced plans to take on Acrobat/PDF. Adobe should be concerned.

[howard]

i hope they get itms out by the end of the year for windows....i'm extremely excited to see how well it will do!

[JoeRadar]

"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that become over time less dependent on hardware"

This really jumped out at me... not so much the content of the words but that someone at Apple has said it.

Lots of items running around the brain: (1) achieving independence from MS (first from IE, now PowerPoint, waiting for Word & Excel); (2) possibility of adding another hardware line; (3) independence from future disasters like the Motorola/G4 dependency; (4) re-introducing the clone market; (5) more stability in revenue; ...

[bankshot]

Originally posted by jxyama
panther by the end of the calender year... i guess that takes care of some of us who wanted to wait a few more weeks to get panther for free with their macs. now the wait is a few months to get the "free" panther...

This is exactly the same as what Steve said at WWDC. Nothing has changed, and no Apple exec is going to say any different until they officially announce the release date. It could be next week or it could be Dec 31. All those rumors about Panther's release date are just as valid or invalid as they were yesterday or last week.

That and the iTMS for Windows by year's end basically didn't tell us anything new. Both have been said repeatedly, without change, since the products have been announced. The software comment was really the most interesting thing here.

That said, let's hope "by year's end" means sooner than later for Panther, as some rumors have suggested. Fast user switching, Exposé, and speed improvements mean it's a mandatory upgrade for me!

[SilentPanda]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
(1) achieving independence from MS (first from IE, now PowerPoint, waiting for Word & Excel)

I'm hoping this one pans out soon. I see the $99 deal I can get on Office for students at Amazon which is an excellent deal but if Apple brings out an office suite withing a year or so I'd rather spend my money on that... I don't actually *need* an office suite so it's not a huge deal... but it'd be nice to have one...

[Nemesis]

Originally posted by JoeRadar
I think MS has already announced plans to take on Acrobat/PDF. Adobe should be concerned.

MS has already announced plans to take on God. The Almighty should be concerned.

[mrsebastian]

"As you can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"

i find it hard to believe that apple would stop making hardware and be a software only company, but i wouldn't be surprised to see them really push the envelope for software. even start getting into the pc software market.

itms could be a good experiment for them to see the response from pc users to mac branded apps. furthermore i wouldn't be surprised if apple released a safari version for windows if itms is successful. like i said i doubt it, but if the above were a success, i wouldn't rule out the possibility of osx being released for pc hardware. especially if apple starts to get a foothold with a few pc apps... go, go, apple! i wouldn't mind seeing my apple stock reach the heights of m$.

[3-22]

- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"

My take on this comment... Apple will continue to release new software for an additional source of revenue. With the big success of Final Cut Pro, DVD studio, etc. it's good money. Apple's bread-and-butter is hardware sales, and when the G4 draught of last year hit I'm sure it was hard on them. If they had more software to sell, it would only mean more cash in times of lean hardware sales. Probably an office alternative or something, etc...

To say this is an indication of a switch to Intel, is a BIG stretch...

[Abstract]

Maybe what they mean is that they'll lower the price on hardware and be less dependent on it for revenue, and will raise the prices for software, or make the iApps a cheap option ($50) during your Apple purchase.

Or maybe it means that they'll be getting more of their software onto Windows computers and rely on revenue from that.

[gopher]

Originally posted by Macrumors
Yesterday, Apple's Chief Financial Officer spoke at the Smith Barney Citigroup, Inc. 2003 Technology Conference and provided some forward looking thoughts on Apple's position. (Webstream available)

Key notes from the Speech:

- PowerMac G5 2.0GHz machines now shipping
- 7 Million active Mac OS X users.
- Panther is due before the end of this calendar year.
- Over 5 million Safari downloads since 1.0 release.
- "You can see, we are getting more and more into the software business so that we become - over time - less dependent on hardware"
- "We're committed to porting iTunes to the Windows platform by the end of the calendar year"
- The iTunes Music Store for Windows is thought to convince people to purchase iPods and -- over time -- Macintoshes.
- US Consumer Marketshare increasing from 1.2% to 3.5% from Q1 2001 -> Q1 2003.
- Education Marketshare increased from 15% to 16% from 3Q 2002 -> 3Q 2003
- Portable Marketshare (Education) increased from 24% to 30%. (Although Dell has #1 overall, Apple is #1 is portables.)

This Apple August 2003 Investor Presentation PDF provides slides that seem to follow Anderson's talk -- and provides graphs which are referenced in his presentation.

MacObserver provides their own notes on the speech. [/b]

What? Only 7 million? That's exactly the same number quoted a little over 2 months ago at the WWDC. Do you mean to say they have no new figures since WWDC? Or have there been as many people leaving Mac OS X for Mac OS 9 as purchasing new Mac OS X machines and/or upgrading to Mac OS X? That means Mac OS X growth rate is stagnant. And here they wanted an increase by the end of the quarter.

[Blackcat]

I don't think he means what we think he means.

Being dependent on hardware means if you don't sell any computers, you go out of business!

Currently, if something isn't going very well, income drops. If they become less dependent on hardware, problems like the current lack of Powerbook updates won't cause problems on the balance sheet.

So rather than saying "we are stopping making hardware" I think he was just acknowledging that they need more constant sales and software gets them.

[Stelliform]

Originally posted by gopher
What? Only 7 million? That's exactly the same number quoted a little over 2 months ago at the WWDC. Do you mean to say they have no new figures since WWDC? Or have there been as many people leaving Mac OS X for Mac OS 9 as purchasing new Mac OS X machines and/or upgrading to Mac OS X? That means Mac OS X growth rate is stagnant. And here they wanted an increase by the end of the quarter.

I know I have 10 Macs running OS 9 waiting to go to OS X when panther comes out. Why upgrade to a product that will be out of date 2 months later? If they didn't have yearly paid upgrades they probably wouldn't have a few month lull.