Apple Store Shipping Dates and Buyers Guide Recommendations

[MacRumors]

The Apple Store updated with last minute Christmas shipping deadlines on Apple products from the Apple Store. All standard configuration Macs must be purchased by December 19th, 2007 with standard shipping or December 21st with overnight shipping.

Our Buyer's Guide, however, does not recommend buying MacBook Pros or Mac Pros at this time due to the long lead time since their last update. Rumors have also placed Mac Pro and MacBook Pro revisions in the near future with number of new Intel processors now available for the future machines. To balance this recommendation, however, readers should realize that updates could still be 1-2 months away, with Macworld Expo (January 15th) being the earliest possible date that these upgrades would be announced. And even if announced at Macworld, actual shipping dates could be delayed beyond that date.

Readers should, however, feel comfortable buying new iPods, as most of the iPod line saw dramatic revisions as recently as September (Classic, Nano, Shuffle, Touch). It seems unlikely that iPods will see major revisions in the near future, though minor storage increases are always possible. iMacs have also been seen relatively recent and significant updates, and could also be comfortably purchased at this time.

Recommendations for Cinema Displays, Mac Minis, Apple TV, MacBook and iPhone are trickier due to individual circumstances and are dealt with separately.

Cinema Displays, Mac Minis - historical data for these updates are inconsistent, with rumors of Mac Mini's possibly being discontinued in the near future. Cinema Displays infrequently get major upgrades, and instead get intermittent price drops. Readers may find greater value in 3rd party LCDs at this time.

MacBook - Despite a November 2007 update, the MacBook could see competition with the Apple Sub-notebook expected at Macworld in January. So, unless you are certain that this ultra-portable will not change your decision, it would be best to wait to buy a MacBook until January 15th.

iPhone, AppleTV - as new consumer electronic devices, Apple has not yet defined the frequency of these updates. Apple TV's future remains entirely open ended as Apple could decide to simply leave its specs stable for some time as it represents an "appliance" device rather than an ongoing platform. However, being a year since its introduction, we would buy cautiously.

The iPhone, however, has more pressure to receive timely updates due to ongoing competition. The iPhone is rumored to see its next major revision in Mid-to-Late 2008. The biggest upgrade expected is a 3G chipset which has been promised for 2008. Whether or not to buy an iPhone now really depends on the your individual need for 3G and if potentially waiting until late 2008 is feasible.



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[tkidBOSTON]

Nice work as usual Arn.

Thanks for the summary.

[arn]

One thing to note about the iPhone is that since it is not subsidized... you don't have to worry as much about buying the next one. It's the same price if you are a new customer or old. You would simply just move your SIM card from your old iPhone to your new one if you decide to upgrade in a year.

arn

[MarlboroLite]

Wish I had a real Time Machine to fast forward one month!!! I want to switch to Mac NOW!!! But I'm waiting...and it's going to suck big time if the new MBPs will not ship until February

[destroyboredom]

Arn-

Any thoughts on if a 16GB iPhone would be introduced at MWSF? May be not replacing the 8GB but a 16GB priced @ $500?

[Squonk]

Yeah so that explains why the store was down today - to list the configurations that are available for 24 hour shipping. I remember that from previous years. I like that change to the store.

I'm waiting to see what 1/15 brings for MBP's

[arn]

Originally Posted by destroyboredom

Arn-

Any thoughts on if a 16GB iPhone would be introduced at MWSF? May be not replacing the 8GB but a 16GB priced @ $500?

I don't think there have any been reliable reports of it. Maybe a couple of analyst guesses. I don't know if there's much merit in it.

arn

[MacsRgr8]

Anybody know the longest interval between "real" updates?
(I'd rather call the intro of the 8-cores Mac Pro's as a product line expansion than an upgrade. You can still buy the same Mac Pro now as of August 17th 2006 for the same price).

One can argue that the G4 running @ 400 MHz was introduced August 1999, and finally ditched January 2001. But, that product did get a little update... Gb ethernet...
The 500 MHz version was also introduced in August 1999, but then was lowered to 450 MHz, and later re-introduced but famously with a twin: the Dual 500 MHz G4.

So, IIRC this Mac Pro is the longest living non-upgraded Mac after Steve made it back to Apple..?

[roland.g]

I would call it very unlikely to see the iPhone go to 8 and 16 since the price drop, along with the fact that the iPod Touch is 8 and 16 giving some differentiation. For the iPhone to move up, so would the Touch which seems unlikely that 16 and 32s would be available at the current 8 and 16 price points.

Best buys right now point to iPods and iMacs for sure. I think the same can definitely be said for iPhones as 3G is still 7-8+ months away if not longer. The Apple TV is a good product and while there could be changes, it complements a Mac quite well.

The higher end Mac Pros and MacBook Pros are the biggest do not buys for sure. And the MacBook is definitely a judgement call b/c of the ultracompact rumors.

Good roundup Arn.

[Clive At Five]

Maybe you should implement a standard deviation-based algorithm for the buying advice comments. It would smooth out the uncertain predictability of things like displays and TV... not to mention give a more realistic responce than "DON'T BUY!" when the current release period meets or exceeds the average.

It'll give a good statistical look at the probability of release. Looking at it from further back, on the first day of the unit's debut, it has a 50% chance of being renewed again before the average release cycle and 50% chance of being renewed afterward.

Then if the standard deviation is 15 days, it'll be 84% likely that it will be refreshed in (avg cycle) + 15 days, 97.7% likely that it'll be released in (avg cycle) + 15 days + 15 days, etc.

I think it'd be more valuable for users to see this sort of a statistical look at the buyer's guide... but will have the drawback of giving analysts more meaningless spew-age.

Think about it.

-Clive

[destroyboredom]

Originally Posted by roland.g

I would call it very unlikely to see the iPhone go to 8 and 16 since the price drop, along with the fact that the iPod Touch is 8 and 16 giving some differentiation. For the iPhone to move up, so would the Touch which seems unlikely that 16 and 32s would be available at the current 8 and 16 price points.

You guys are probably right on the iPhone. I'll hold off until Jan anyway to see what happens. One can still hope I guess. I would just hate to buy now and have them throw that curve ball at MWSF. They already did it once with the price drop.

[GregA]

Nice roundup. Looking forward to 15/1!

I have to say I keep seeing the AppleTV and Mac Mini lines merging in some way. A low end MacMini with HDMI (instead of DVI) and an iPod connector (so it could use the "Apple Composite AV cable" or "Apple Component AV cable" to provide video output!) is pretty close to an AppleTV.

Maybe I'm going mad .

Originally Posted by roland.g

I would call it very unlikely to see the iPhone go to 8 and 16 since the price drop, along with the fact that the iPod Touch is 8 and 16 giving some differentiation. For the iPhone to move up, so would the Touch which seems unlikely that 16 and 32s would be available at the current 8 and 16 price points.

I think the iPhone memory can move up pretty easily without the Touch changing. Both would have 8 & 16 options, $100 more for the phone features. Why would that be a problem?

3G won't happen yet, since for now it'd make the iPhone thicker, heavier, and reduce battery life.

[tiiim]

Originally Posted by GregA

I think the iPhone memory can move up pretty easily without the Touch changing. Both would have 8 & 16 options, $100 more for the phone features. Why would that be a problem?

3G won't happen yet, since for now it'd make the iPhone thicker, heavier, and reduce battery life.

I agree a 16GB version shouldn't be a problem.. one thing we got to realize is the phone market (especially in europe) is very fast moving and Apple will need to do little things like this to keep up with the game... but its only speculation at the moment. If no upgrade to the memory then the 3g iphone will need to be a few months behind to keep up on the game. But Apple do have the habit of changing the way market works so you never know they might just break the mould.

[NYCMacFan]

Originally Posted by roland.g

I would call it very unlikely to see the iPhone go to 8 and 16 since the price drop, along with the fact that the iPod Touch is 8 and 16 giving some differentiation. For the iPhone to move up, so would the Touch which seems unlikely that 16 and 32s would be available at the current 8 and 16 price points.

Best buys right now point to iPods and iMacs for sure. I think the same can definitely be said for iPhones as 3G is still 7-8+ months away if not longer. The Apple TV is a good product and while there could be changes, it complements a Mac quite well.

Two Quick Things

1. I would not be so certain on the iphone not going from 8 to 16. I also personally think that 16 makes the world much easier. Allows me a whole bunch of podcasts and 1-2,000 songs without even thinking about it. Using 8 gigs now, I am constantly having to go and delete podcasts or take a few songs off.

However, who knows when and so if you need a phone, yeah not advisable to wait.

2. I'd also say you HAVE to wait for the macbook as well as a macbook pro. We do not know pricing or how viable the new rumored ultraportable will be as a substitute for the macbook. But it might be something a macbook purchaser will go for. It is also possible that this will lead Apple to change/reconfigure the macbook slightly or alter the pricing.

I don't see it likely that they would refresh the macbook and macbook pro lines at the same time and assume that any new computer will go into the macbook pro line given its age and the new features. But who knows about a minor refresh around the same time...

P.S. I would not expect much of a delay past Jan 15 Macworld announcement with new products. I know they announced the iphone well in advance, but Apple normally has the stores stocked the same day it shows off a new product. We are also hearing too much intelligence from Asian suppliers that suggest production is going full steam now to meet January demand.

[gugy]

MacPro at MWSF PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't bear this wait any longer!

[ogun7]

I think with Apple's hoard of flash memory manufacturing commitments, they will judge the market sustainability of a storage increase to iPhone. Remember that iPhone was just introduced to Europe, so I'm ambivalent as to what Uncle Steve will do with the iPhone after MacWorld. Maybe the SDK announcement will be enough marketing wise to keep pumping iPhone sales. I don't think they want to tick off European customer who tend to be more astute consumers than us Yanks.

[twoodcc]

thanks macrumors. nice guide. now i can't wait til macworld!

[Jim Campbell]

Originally Posted by MacRumors

Cinema Displays, Mac Minis - historical data for these updates are inconsistent, with rumors of Mac Mini's possibly being discontinued in the near future.

I'm sorry, but can we stop giving credence to this particular whispering campaign? The Mini has been predicted to be absolutely, definitely getting dropped since ... well, for most of this year, certainly.

There's no actual sales data available from Apple to suggest that the Mini is selling as badly as the anti-Mini camp like to imply, whilst what little indirect sales data we are able to gather (Amazon best seller rankings, f'r instance) suggest the contrary.

Would I like to see Apple beef up the Mini's spec? Yes. Absolutely. Nonetheless, can we pack it in with the completely unfounded speculation that the little guy is getting canned at any moment - this is the sort of thing that eventually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and I'd hate to see the Mini fall victim to it.

Cheers

Jim

[wizard]

Originally Posted by roland.g

I would call it very unlikely to see the iPhone go to 8 and 16 since the price drop, along with the fact that the iPod Touch is 8 and 16 giving some differentiation. For the iPhone to move up, so would the Touch which seems unlikely that 16 and 32s would be available at the current 8 and 16 price points.

Now I won't sit here and say for sure Apple has a Flash update coming in the new year. I simply don't know, but honestly think it would be a very good idea for them.

What bothers me about your post though is the reference to the Touch. Really it has nothing to do with it. That is any possible configuration of the iPhone. The singular thing that makes the iphone attractive is its cell phone something the Touch doesn't compete with.

Best buys right now point to iPods and iMacs for sure. I think the same can definitely be said for iPhones as 3G is still 7-8+ months away if not longer. The Apple TV is a good product and while there could be changes, it complements a Mac quite well.

This I would tend to agree with if you mean by 'best buys' that they are safe from immediate upgrades. The possilbe exception being the Touch as I see demand being really strong for a Flash upgrade on this just like the iPhone. Both machines could better man their respective positions with more Flash. I'd actually like ot see more RAM in both machines too.

The higher end Mac Pros and MacBook Pros are the biggest do not buys for sure. And the MacBook is definitely a judgement call b/c of the ultracompact rumors.

Good roundup Arn.

Well if this is the year that MWSF gets back to being all things Mac then I'd have to agree. The indications are strong that this will happen. So don't buy anything called a MAC right now.

dave

[Glenny2lappies]

Originally Posted by tiiim

I agree a 16GB version shouldn't be a problem.. one thing we got to realize is the phone market (especially in europe) is very fast moving and Apple will need to do little things like this to keep up with the game...

I do think that now the dust has settled and we have the iPhone in Europe we can see that it's not the roaring success the hype predicted.

• It's too expensive when compared with other (subsidised) phones
• The carrier phone plans are way way too expensive - bordering on a mug's game
• The legally unlocked phones are stupidly expensive (€750 = $1080)
• EDGE isn't well implemented and it's just too slow when compared with 3G
• There's too many missing features (video, modem, version 1 apps)
• There's currently no official third party applications

I'm not saying it's the most desirable phone there is; it's just that it's not quite there yet.

So, at Macworld, it will be interesting to see what's said about the upcoming iPhone SDK and who Apple have signed up as early developers. I'm sure this will come with additional hardware attachments (GPS, etc.).

I'm resigned to the fact that the iPhone update -- e.g. 2nd generation iPhone -- won't be here until next summer, although it may see a 16Gb update before then.

[liv4Mac]

Originally Posted by gugy

MacPro at MWSF PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't bear this wait any longer!

MWSF??? Please Penryn based MacPro before the 31st of December 2007. Please!! Paa-Leezzz.

[Glenny2lappies]

Originally Posted by wizard

What bothers me about your post though is the reference to the Touch. Really it has nothing to do with it. That is any possible configuration of the iPhone. The singular thing that makes the iphone attractive is its cell phone something the Touch doesn't compete with.

I was having a beer with some friends the other day when one of them produced his iPod touch. He's using it as a PDA replacement. And it wasn't bad in this role; the contacts and calendar are great. Sure, it's missing the phone, but it does almost as much as a PDA (with a much better browser, iTunes and an interface to die for).

If the upcoming SDK opens up the touch and the built-in applications get updated, this could well be a killer gadget, albeit without the phone.

Just think; all you need is a "phone back" to attach to the touch and you've got everything!

[ogun7]

Originally Posted by Jim Campbell

There's no actual sales data available from Apple to suggest that the Mini is selling as badly as the anti-Mini camp like to imply, whilst what little indirect sales data we are able to gather (Amazon best seller rankings, f'r instance) suggest the contrary.

The mini wouldn't be discontinued due to lack of sales, it would be due to lack of a sizable margin. The main value that Apple has in investors' eyes is the sales margin or markup. The difference between costs of parts, costs of marketing and research leveraged per unit and sales price makes Apple quite a bit of money. The reason why the mini has a laptop hard drive in it is not due to space, but the cost of 2.5" drives split across all the product lines that carry them: iMacs, MacBooks and MacBook Pros. This allows them to aggressively drive down the purchase cost in bulk from their suppliers. They don't necessarily pass on the savings to us, they make their income right there. The shrinking costs of parts and the maintenance of prices on the product line is how Apple makes Wall Street happy.

The mini's price doesn't allow them to have a sizable markup, therefore it's not a product Apple likes.

[mashny]

Originally Posted by gugy

MacPro at MWSF PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't bear this wait any longer!

Amen!

[sagefool1975]

Originally Posted by mashny

Amen!

Seriously! My Power Mac Dual G5 died last week (logic board / disk controller started corrupting disks, wee) and there is no way I'm buying the current incarnation. Those new models need to make it out the door!