Gartner: Apple To Double Its Market-share By 2011

[MacRumors]

In possibly one of the more ambitious outlooks for Mac market-share increases, Gartner is forecasting that Apple will double its market-share in the US and Western Europe by 2011. The reason for the dramatic increase is said to be two-fold: Apple continues to do well in its Macintosh unit and competitors aren't meeting Apple's competitive pressure.

Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility; continuous and more frequent innovation in hardware and software; and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices (such as iPod and iMac cross-selling).

Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

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[clevin]

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

[bondsbw]

I would hope for more, although I know it's unlikely. Not that I'm the biggest Apple fan (although I have a Macbook and iPhone)... it's just that a competitive marketplace is very good for the consumer. Some large companies (who I shall not name, but have 90+% of the market) have played the lock-in game too long. It's time they put the money, that which they all-but-force from the pockets of their customers, to good use. And competitive pressures will force that to happen, and I applaud Apple for continually making a larger dent in the market.

[MrT8064]

i think this is a fair assumption, 3 years ago, i knew 2 people who used macs, now, i know 8, still not many but just in my circle of friends thats pretty extreme growth, and 6 of those 8 are in the intel era.

i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

[GSMiller]

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

[zirkle2007]

I can't imagine primarily using something on the go such as an iPhone, I love them, but for me there is no replacement for a laptop...I guess I'm just not a huge fan of doing any sort of work on such a small screen. I really don't see that part coming true though. Maybe 12" notebooks, but nothing smaller.

[geerlingguy]

Originally Posted by GSMiller

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

Specifically, 12 years ago (1996), when Apple was holding on for dear life (comparatively), and when I almost decided to buy $100 worth of Apple stock at less than $13 (that was two splits and a couple hundred dollars worth of per share increase ago).

I'm glad for Apple, but sad I didn't take that risk. Oh well, better safe than sorry...

[gifford]

Originally Posted by GSMiller

Who would have thought a few years back that Apple would ever have 12% market share.

me

Originally Posted by zirkle2007

I can't imagine primarily using something on the go such as an iPhone, I love them, but for me there is no replacement for a laptop...I guess I'm just not a huge fan of doing any sort of work on such a small screen. I really don't see that part coming true though. Maybe 12" notebooks, but nothing smaller.

I think you are forgetting that screens on small devices may not necessarily have to be small in a few years. Foldable etc

Originally Posted by clevin

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

Easy. Not only will Apples traditional market share be steaming ahead, their new iPhone type devices which are effectively computers (and even more so by then) will be selling like hot cakes. Apple only need to have a small sliver of the phone market to become the most popular full blown OS on the planet! Though I expect Android might just take that title from them in time.

[motulist]

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

[zirkle2007]

Originally Posted by motulist

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

Good point. There's a lot of truth in your statement. I can see how that would factor in!

[rstone3]

Originally Posted by motulist

I've said in before and I'll say again...

There's a tipping point.

Once Apple reaches a certain market share, then its adoption rate will suddenly sky rocket. One of the reasons why more people haven't seriously considered Macs in the past is simply because not enough other people were using them either. Personal users didn't use it because they were unfamiliar with it. When new users were set up in the computing world they got a PC because the person setting them up wanted them to easily fit in to the rest of the computing world. Managers in charge of buying decisions always bought MS Windows because that's what everyone else used, and no one every gets fired for buying the dominant technology even if it's not really the best technology for the job. Etc etc.

But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

This is very well stated - and I suspect that we are close to that critical mass. I also have a lot of people that I know who have recently adopted the Mac as another poster mentioned. I suspect one other crucial thing is the fact that in the Intel era one is not totally committed to Mac software in that for the price of Windows it can be loaded on a Mac.

As another illustration of how far behind Windows is a friend of mine just bragged about how his new version of Word under Vista can create a PDF file whenever he wants one (WOW!). I woke my iMac and showed him how OS X has been able to do that with any application for years.

[John Purple]

Originally Posted by motulist

...
But once Apple's market share reaches a critical mass, all those factors will cease to be, and then over the span of maybe a year or two you'll see Apple's market share growth explode.

This is true since the early 1980s and was discussed by that time also (not on the internet however ). Certainly due to SJ being stubborn not to give the mass what the mass wants (at that time: hard discs, color monitors, today: [fill in what you are missing]) but doing nice products for those who share his view on design, user interface etc., the explosion never happened - and will not happen in the next years, I guess.

[futureswitcher]

I would absolutely love to see gain more market share...it's good for the competition!

i don't want to hate Micro$oft

Originally Posted by MrT8064

i can see iPod sales tailing off over the next few years, unless people are seeking replacements for damaged/small capacity iPods.

i disagree. The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

[ChrisA]

Originally Posted by futureswitcher

The market will keep refreshing itself. The iPod buyers of 2 years from now will be graduating from elementary school in June

The above is the very definition of a "flat" no-growth market.

[Dale_Nx26]

Originally Posted by bondsbw

I would hope for more, although I know it's unlikely. Not that I'm the biggest Apple fan (although I have a Macbook and iPhone)... it's just that a competitive marketplace is very good for the consumer. Some large companies (who I shall not name, but have 90+% of the market) have played the lock-in game too long. It's time they put the money, that which they all-but-force from the pockets of their customers, to good use. And competitive pressures will force that to happen, and I applaud Apple for continually making a larger dent in the market.

Are you talking about Texas Instruments??? j/k. but i do hate them.

[sunfast]

Originally Posted by Gartner

Gartner also predicts that by 2012, 50% of traveling workers will use devices other than notebooks. Gartner cites new "Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level" as a primary threat to the notebook in this arena. Notably, the iPhone fits this description.

This interests me. I'm particularly keen to see where the iPhone goes over the next little while (with the SDK, hardware updates at some point etc) for this reason. I've always been a notebook chap but for the first time I'm considering a desktop with an updated iPhone as my travelling companion (in the future of course).

[czachorski]

Originally Posted by clevin

12% by 2011?...mmm, dont think so.

Did you ....mmm, not think they were going to go from 1.6% to 8% in the last 5 years?

[MacSawdust]

If you consider the 8% stat as "real" people using Macs today, then 12% sounds reasonable 2011. Let's go for the slow and steady. Vista is no threat. We have time.

[ageha]

Originally Posted by MacSawdust

If you consider the 8% stat as "real" people using Macs today, then 12% sounds reasonable 2011. Let's go for the slow and steady. Vista is no threat. We have time.

That's right, Vista is a bless for Apple, they really did them a favor.

[amac4me]

The gain will be broad based and a significant percentage will be the direct result of SWITCHERS.

I've been saying for years (since 2005) that the Mac user base was to embark on a significant growth phase. I've held that position and it is well documented.

Who needs a PC?

[zirkle2007]

Originally Posted by amac4me

Who needs a PC?

I do agree, but until OS X learns to handle video cards the way Windows does, my games will stay primarily on my PC or Boot Camp...sad thats the only reason I even have Windows anymore.

[juanm]

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short if they get a good MacGamer solution and convince Autodesk and the like to join OS X development.
In a mere two years, Apple growth forecast has changed a lot: Intel, iPhone, and the still underestimated TV can mean a new deal at an even higher scale, let alone if Apple surprises us with a new pipeline even only once a year!
People are getting tired of Windows, and most are opening their minds towards the Mac. Europe is still a virgin, concerning Macs. iPods have still to take off (I don't count the UK)... and if you add to that the iPod/iPhone halo.

Three years and 2x look like something feasible, given good conditions (economy, marketing, and "Vista 2.0" mostly)

[ChrisA]

Originally Posted by Juan Moro

Mac adoption will be exponential, so even this report may fall short...

No, by design Apple only goes after the top X percent of the market. In order to have very large market share Apple would need to offer a computer at each price point. Apple ignores the low margin price points.

Apple will remain forever a boutique reseller by choice. Their problem is that should they ever become truly mainstream they loose the ability to charge premium prices and they become Dell or Compaq.

[MacFly123]

Originally Posted by ChrisA

No, by design Apple only goes after the top X percent of the market. In order to have very large market share Apple would need to offer a computer at each price point. Apple ignores the low margin price points.

Apple will remain forever a boutique reseller by choice. Their problem is that should they ever become truly mainstream they loose the ability to charge premium prices and they become Dell or Compaq.

So how do you explain the cost of the iPhone and its record shattering adoption?

Here is the thing. The middle class in America is disappearing. All these people that are moving into the upper class are wanting and going to want the UPPER CLASS computer. The rest will have crappy PCs. It's sad, but it really is true. People are learning that with a big purchase like a computer, you really do get what you pay for and they want a NICE computer. And now because of the iPod and iPhone they know just how nice Macs really are.

Do you remember when pretty much all fast food meals were $5.00??? Well no anymore lol. They have evolved the market into more upscale type foods and suddenly you now spend $10.00-$15.00 at pretty much any place unless you are eating from a dollar menu. The same thing is happening in the computer industry. And when people get their first make and fall in love, they really don't care that it cost more and they will definitely spend that much more again next time to stay with Apple. Once you go Mac, you never go back

[kabunaru]

Good news that Apple will gain marketshare.
I wonder when Windows PCs will be gone?