Apple Increases Mac Production, Decreases iPod?

[MacRumors]

Banc of America sources (via iLounge) in Asia claim that Apples desktop and notebook production numbers have been increased by 20% from Apple's early January estimates, suggesting stronger than expected demand for Apple's computers.

Firm believes production numbers should continue to move up throughout the quarter. MacBook Air orders also increased slightly for March, contributing to the upside. They continue to believe that desktops and notebooks are the key driver of the story.

Meanwhile, iPod production numbers are said to be significantly reduced by 10-20% from early January, suggesting slower demand than expected for the popular music player.

Recent outlooks have suggested growth in Apple's Mac marketshare, and the latest Net Applications numbers (methodology) from January 2008 reveal that the Mac had a 7.57% browser marketshare. This is up from 7.31% in December 2007.

Article Link

[roland.g]

A lot more people have iPods than Macs, and this may be indicative of the halo effect beginning to really take hold.

[colocolo]

I guess the fact that people are more prone to give iPods than computers as Christmas gifts might have to be taken into account for the decrease in the music Player production.
As for the more Macs part - well, that's just more demand.

[Mac21ND]

Originally Posted by colocolo

I guess the fact that people are more prone to give iPods than computers as Christmas gifts might have to be taken into account for the decrease in the music Player production.
As for the more Macs part - well, that's just more demand.

Exactly. Why a production increase prior to the holidays and a decrease post-holiday's would surprise an analyst is beyond me.

[jouster]

Originally Posted by Mac21ND

Exactly. Why a production increase prior to the holidays and a decrease post-holiday's would surprise an analyst is beyond me.

Reading the linked article would tell you that isn't just a simple decrease after the holidays - that is a given. It is a decrease of what they expected even in a traditionally slow quarter:

"Current production expectations for March imply 5-10% Y/Y unit decline, versus firm's expectation for 5% Y/Y unt growth during the March quarter..."

[Mac21ND]

Originally Posted by jouster

Reading the linked article would tell you that isn't just a simple decrease after the holidays - that is a given. It is a decrease of what they expected even in a traditionally slow quarter:

"Current production expectations for March imply 5-10% Y/Y unit decline, versus firm's expectation for 5% Y/Y unt growth during the March quarter..."

If you read the iLounge article MacRumors points to, the decline is based simply on analyst checks production - nothing more. They cite a decrease against Apple based on Apple's forecast of having 5 percent growth year over year. In the article, there's no basis for a decline other than these "checks" that analyst do (which may or may not be correct, sometimes it's nothing more than calling a few stores and checking if they have something in stock), which is why typically analyst predictions or forecast are hardly reliable.

[seashellz2]

well APPLE has 8% of the market.
a consulting firm here recently said APPLE could DOUBLE it market share by 2010 (Browser share?)
iPod: market saturation + poor economy-bought by those of limited income (read: mostly kids and teens)
Desk/laptops appeal to the more well off=who havent yet been hit by the coming PRIME meltdown. according
to Real Estate and Financial sources Ive read. Not to mention a million ARM resets this spring going from a teaser 6% to a mindboggling 15%
APPLE shouldnt waste money on YAHOO, but rather hunker down until the storm passes-if it does.
Or at best GOOGLE

[brad.c]

Not really sure if these figures mean something in the real world, but I'm glad to see focus renewed on the Mac platform. Maybe MacWorlds of the future will be about just that.

Although AppleWorld sounds fun. Like Wallyworld, but with better merchandising.

[ashoka8350]

Bank of America and Banc of America are two different entities. Bank of America is the regular Bank while the Banc of America is an investing company.

[Jim Campbell]

Originally Posted by Mac21ND

Exactly. Why a production increase prior to the holidays and a decrease post-holiday's would surprise an analyst is beyond me.

Stop the Presses! Hold the Front Page!

++Consumer Electronics Manufacturer Experiences Fall-Off in Demand During Period After Christmas!++

Pictures at Eleven ...

Cheers

Jim

[BoyBach]

Originally Posted by Jim Campbell

Stop the Presses! Hold the Front Page!

++Consumer Electronics Manufacturer Experiences Fall-Off in Demand During Period After Christmas!++

Pictures at Eleven ...

Cheers

Jim

Ha-ha! Great post.

[ziwi]

I guess they are starting to become a computer company again Or perhaps the standard iPod has run its course and it is going to be al phones and touches from here on out...

[gkarris]

Originally Posted by ziwi

I guess they are starting to become a computer company again Or perhaps the standard iPod has run its course and it is going to be al phones and touches from here on out...

Still waiting for that 160 Gig hard-drive based Touch...

waiting...

[bluedoggiant]

Originally Posted by gkarris

Still waiting for that 160 Gig hard-drive based Touch...

waiting...

I hope 80GB, that would be a fat iPod.

[sterlingindigo]

Great work Apple, on the increase in market share for Mac's-I'm not surprised. Why are iPods down though? I hardly doubt saturation or competition when we get are getting our frequent updates to satisfy quality demand (little phatty, touch) and do I need to mention... Zune?

[dmelgar]

Originally Posted by Mac21ND

Exactly. Why a production increase prior to the holidays and a decrease post-holiday's would surprise an analyst is beyond me.

This is an old story, has been out for a week or longer.

It is 5-10% MORE of a decline than Apple anticipated. Apple starts out with a much reduced production schedule for this quarter.

[ChrisA]

Makes sense. This mirrors what I plan to buy. I've go two iPods and have no plans to buy a third. I think they've already sold an iPod to just about everyone who wants one. Not everyone wants a "touch". They are unless at the gym. Also many people are looking at non-Apple music players now because of price and features. Apple's "iPod goldmine" is not sustainable.

With luck, Apple will one day will change it's name back to "Apple Computers"

[happydude]

THE MAC IS BACK!!

[andiwm2003]

good, so apple becomes more of a computer company again i hope.
the ipod's certainly reach a saturation and also suffer from the iphone sales.

now if apple would invest heavily in productivity software that would be great. iwork isn't good enough. i need a better word processor, a better spreadsheet, a easy database similar to filemaker, improved iweb, much better ical, a ton of web apps and a much faster/better .MAC

go apple!

[notjustjay]

Yeah, the market for iPods may not be "saturated" but it must be close. Lots of people have one, two, or more already, and most of those that don't have iPods choose not to because they'd rather buy a different brand, so Apple can't count on a sale from them anyway.

[hockeysc23]

Originally Posted by notjustjay

Yeah, the market for iPods may not be "saturated" but it must be close. Lots of people have one, two, or more already, and most of those that don't have iPods choose not to because they'd rather buy a different brand, so Apple can't count on a sale from them anyway.

Exactly. The only new markets are younger kids that may not have a MP3 player already or someone replacing ther broken one.

If you want an iPod odds are good you got one already, or a couple.

[Full of Win]

Matches what they said in their stock call. I think they said they had a few weeks of product in channel then they like.

[Eidorian]

Originally Posted by roland.g

A lot more people have iPods than Macs, and this may be indicative of the halo effect beginning to really take hold.

How many years have we used the iPod Halo Effect? Isn't it at least going on 3 years now?

[sterlingindigo]

Everyone may already have an iPod but it's inevitable that they will want the next generation. Once quantity demand has been established then quality demand follows. If you've owned a first generation iPod or 128k, you may know what I mean. I don't think the iPod is dead by any stretch.

[ChrisA]

Originally Posted by sterlingindigo

Everyone may already have an iPod but it's inevitable that they will want the next generation. Once quantity demand has been established then quality demand follows. If you've owned a first generation iPod or 128k, you may know what I mean. I don't think the iPod is dead by any stretch.

Not "dead" but entering a period of flat growth. It is like the market for refrigerators. Everyone already has a refrigerator. The only reason new ones are sold is either (a) Kids grow up and move into their own place or (2) the old 'fridge breaks or otherwise needs to be replaced. So while there will always be a market for new refrigerators we don't see the CEO of GE going on stage at "Refrigerator World" talking about how sales have doubled every year.

And yes, even if every iPod user upgrades his iPod every few years that is still "flat growth" because the total number of iPods in use does not change except to follow demographics.