Anyway, with that as background, I wanted to pass along a second note, this one from a Boston firm called Detwiler, Mitchell, Fenton, & Graves. They do an unsigned daily intelligence service called Channel Notes. The firm does very useful research on the tech supply chain, Ive found. And today they addressed some of the very same issues raised in Bergers note.
Here is the full text of what they wrote:
Our latest checks into Apples supply chain suggests continued improvements in PC builds offset by erosion in iPods and weakness in iPhone builds. In our first check since AAPL provided lackluster March Q guidance, PCs appear on track for another record Q with builds suggesting double digit sequential growth.
The builds indicate that March Q should defy normal seasonality for AAPLs PC sales and increase meaningfully following a roughly 2.3MM unit December Q. For those wondering, it appears roughly 400K MacBook Air are included in the March Q builds.
iPod builds have declined by nearly 1MM units in the last 3 weeks driven mostly by declines in iPod Video builds (both iTouch and Classic) leaving iPod builds down roughly 15% y/y. We estimate AAPL overbuilt iPods by roughly 2MM units in the December Q which may help explain the large y/y decline. Finally, iPhone builds appear on track for roughly 1.3MM units, a data point which confirms many of the rumored production cuts floating on Wall Street last week.
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