The Evidence for a 3G iPhone... June 2008

[MacRumors]

There's been so much talk about the possibility of the "3G" iPhone, it can be hard to keep up with all the rumors. First of all, "3G" technology promises broadband-like speeds over wireless cellular networks. At present, the iPhone only offers 2.5G (EDGE) speeds, which means your web pages and email download at relatively slower speeds.

It's been no secret that the iPhone will eventually adopt 3G technology. When Steve Jobs first introduced the iPhone in January 2007, he specifically said (video clip) that Apple plans on making "3G phones and all sorts of amazing things in the future". The major issue that prevented Apple from incorporating 3G into the first iPhone was excessive power consumption from 3G chipsets:

We cared a lot about battery life and we cared a lot about physical size. Down the road, I'm sure some of those tradeoffs will become more favorable towards 3G but as of now we think we made a pretty good doggone decision.

Some newly announced 3G chipsets promise to address these power issues and AT&T's CEO has even said outright that the 3G iPhone is coming in 2008.

When is it coming?

The earliest evidence of the 3G iPhone came from Goldman Sachs Analysts who predicted that the iPhone would see two updates in 2008. The first minor update was predicted to be a Flash memory upgrade in the 1st half of the year. This came true in February with the release of the 16GB iPhone.

The second revision was described as "major" and was predicted to include 3G, possibly a different look, and arrive in the 2nd half of 2008. A number of reports this week appears to confirm this prediction. Hon Hai has reportedly won the contract to build Apple's next iPhone and Bank of America sources suggest that the 3G iPhone will begin limited production in May with a ramp up in June. Spanish paper Cinco Dias suggests that the 3G iPhone could debut in the Spanish market as early as May.

Finally, there was news this week that Apple has acquired trademark rights to use the name "iPhone" in Japan -- a country that interestingly has a 3G network but no EDGE network.

What do I do now?

A June release for the next iPhone falls conveniently close to Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference which takes place from June 9-13th this year. It's possible that Apple will replace the existing iPhone with the 3G version, but it's also conceivable that the 3G version will be a high-end model, leaving the existing 2.5G iPhone in place at a cheaper price point.

Due to the mounting evidence for the 3G iPhone, we've updated our Buyers Guide to recommend against buying an iPhone at this time unless you absolutely need it. Obviously, individual circumstances may vary, but if you are an average consumer looking for the best value for the money, we recommend waiting, but understand the new version could still be (at least) 3 months off.

Article Link

[Mykbibby]

Hmmm... interesting...

The best would be to keep the previous model, but who knows what they have up their sleeves...

[brianhn1]

It better be worth it.

[rjflyn]

$599 $699 anyones guess. I won't buy until I know it can be unlocked hint hint.
Rj

[Grimace]

Recommending that users wait 3 months for a product update. The Buyer's Guide is getting pretty bold!

[zephead]

I sure hope they find some way to set the 16GB iPhone with 3G at $399. Heck, I could even scrape by if it was still 8GB at $399, as long as it has 3G.

[Mykbibby]

Originally Posted by rjflyn

$599 $699 anyones guess. I won't buy until I know it can be unlocked hint hint.
Rj

699? Are you joking?

My predicted price points: 299 for 8, 399 for 16, 499 for 32 and the last generation will continue to sell with 8 gb at 199.

[viniciusc]

I don't think Apple will put it as a high-end model. It doesn't seem very Apple asking the consumer to pay more for a faster data traffic network, does it?
IMHO, if Apple CAN put 3G on an iPhone, then they will in all models.

[Zwhaler]

Here's to hoping for a 3G, 32GB iPhone at 499$

[ks-man]

Perhaps a $599 initial pricing with a reduction to $499 by the holidays and $399 by March of next year (that is for a 32GB model).

I'm guessing that Apple won't want to cut by $200 too quickly after last year's debacle with the price cut.

[nateomedia]

I just stopped by an Apple Store here in California today and was told that they were completely sold out of iPhones. In fact, I was told that all Apple stores in California are sold out. I just looked at the Apple Store website and iPhones are back ordered 5-7 days. Hmm.

I'm not saying 3G is about to hit, but I think some sort of bump is about to happen. Considering that there wasn't even a shortage at launch, this seems a little fishy.

[sushi]

Originally Posted by ks-man

I'm guessing that Apple won't want to cut by $200 too quickly after last year's debacle with the price cut.

That would be a safe bet. I am sure Apple learned this lesson well.

[Orre]

I doubt the new iphone would be a high-end model. That would not work very well in Europe and Japan where 3G is more common. 3G celly's aren't expensive and it would be an extremely bad decision to force budget customers to buy the "non 3g" iphone.

[zap2]

I'll be putting some cash aside for a 3G iPhone, I was gonna pick up a Centro, but I couldn't deal with the dated OS, small keyboard and small screen Looking around, nothing I saw was good enough. BlackJack II was decent, but it didn't move me like the iPhone. Plus WM6!



So now, I'll be eagerly waiting to replace my EGDE iPhone...hopefully, we'll see a 32GB model...

[raggedjimmi]

Yea I can't imagine Apple having both 2.5 and 3G phones on the market like that. I can see them selling off the 2.5G models to shift stock (especially in the UK where the iPhone isn't doing too great) once the 3G model is out.

I am really impressed by how 3G has spread and I'll be waiting for this new iPhone.

[Zwhaler]

Originally Posted by sushi

That would be a safe bet. I am sure Apple learned this lesson well.

Yeah, they would take a LOT of criticism if they did that one twice. The only 600$ iProduct I can imagine is a 64GB iPod touch, but I don't think we will see that until it can be priced at 500$, like the current 32GB model (in other words, later this year at the earliest).

[Aj2488]

3G would be great to have but the more I think about it if you were able to get an EDGE iPhone for $200 then why not? 3G is nice but I personally don't think its worth $400. With all the Wi-Fi hotspots out there today how often would anyone do any kind of major browsing on EDGE or 3G anyway. Just a thought.

[RobertD63]

My question is.. How much are they going to jack up the price of it?

[flavamactop]

3G phones at the current price point for a given drive size @ EDGE, or even $100 more, will get me in the door as soon as the door opens...

[gugy]

I think at WWDC we are having the 3g.
Apple wants to hit the 10 million mark this year and consumers in Asia and Europe are waiting for this really hard. Once Apple releases 3g those iPhones will fly off the shelves in these markets.
That's why they are saying the production will start in May and picking up a bit later.
June is the month IMHO.
Can't wait and hopefully 32gig comes along too.

[Zwhaler]

Originally Posted by RobertD63

My question is.. How much are they going to jack up the price of it?

I have been wondering that too. My guess is that if Apple does little other than add 3G to the next iPhone, we can expect it to run at the same price point as it is currently. But, if Apple decides (which they likely will) to throw in a bunch of other stuff, like better screens and camera, MMS, video chat, etc. it will probably be between 50 and a 100 more dollars than it currently costs.

But, knowing Apple, they might just forfeit some profits and keep it at the same price point (even if they add 3G and a bunch of other goodies) in hopes that the attractive bang/buck ratio will draw in more customers, and thus making up for the loss in profits that Apple will suffer by pricing the phone lower than they wanted to.

[randomrazor]

with the market as bad as it is and gas prices... apple no matter what has to have the 3g phone some what affordable. The price decrease when it first came out was embarrassing and a hassle I am sure. Plus apple still has that goal of ten million iphones so apple has no choice to make the phone reasonably priced if not the same amount.

[Crewtop]

How does backwards compatibility work from 3G down? Let's face it, 3G use will be limited for anyone who travels outside the best served areas (not to mention sucky coverage in hilly areas). Would it drop back to EDGE rates or not work at all (like it does now when EDGE is not available)? If it can drop back to EDGE, then a plus for the new model.

Data cost. Will AT&T (USA) and others really charge the same when you suck down much more than on EDGE? Sounds like a model for two-tiered pricing to me so maybe not an advantage for the new one (but time is money, hmmm).

Storage. Once the SDK is out and we get start loading up the phone with apps, we may see that our small amount of memory becomes precious. Keep the full song list, how many movies for a trip, oh, I have 3 games, Outlook services, and that Apple exercise program. Oh, and I need to bring that huge PPT presentation and a couple of big files. Sounds like more memory will be a plus (maybe 8G is sounding tiny).

Bottom line for me is what will the apps do to storage, if we get disk access, and what it will really cost for 3G.

[flavamactop]

Originally Posted by gugy

I think at WWDC we are having the 3g.
Apple wants to hit the 10 million mark this year and consumers in Asia and Europe are waiting for this really hard. Once Apple releases 3g those iPhones will fly off the shelves in these markets.
That's why they are saying the production will start in May and picking up a bit later.
June is the month IMHO.
Can't wait and hopefully 32gig comes along too.

I totally agree. I'm actually thinking they may be released earlier than June, and June would be the latest that they would be released. There are too many countries waiting on 3G to release the iPhone... I can't see Apple leaving all that money on the table.

[randomrazor]

I don't expect a redesign but maybe a splash of color at least to distinguish a 3g model from the first one. I for one have been holding out for months for the 3g model and waiting very patiently for it!!!! but apple can you hurry up ha