iPhone Shortage Points to New Model?

[MacRumors]

With news of an iPhone shortage, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster figures an 80% chance that a new iPhone is coming. He gives only a 20% chance that there is a production or manufacturing problem.

Now Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has gone a little further, reporting that he’s called around to 20 Apple stores around the U.S. and found the same thing. No iPhones to be had. Additionally, lead times on delivery of iPhones from Apple.com is still 5-7 days.

This leads him to believe two possibilities. 1) A new iPhone is coming sooner than originally expected or 2) There’s a production or manufacturing problem. He figures the chances that a new iPhone are coming at about 80%.

Article Link

[aristobrat]

Wonder if his prediction track record will continue?

From July of last year:

Analyst Gene Munster for Piper Jaffray:

80% chance of new iMacs soon
a 13-inch ultra-portable is under development
Mac OS X-based iPods are under development

http://www.appletell.com/apple/comme...e-predictions/

[m005e]

i don't think the new iPhone will be introduced until WWDC. which is still a long way off, to be out of current iPhones.

[arn]

Originally Posted by aristobrat

Wonder if his prediction track record will continue?

From July of last year:

http://www.appletell.com/apple/comme...e-predictions/

I'm not sure I give him credit for those predictions. Munster tends to echo the rumor-mill.

Even this report is an echo of this report from AI.

Though he is alone in his 80% that this represents a new iPhone. that's all him.

arn

[iSlave]

Does this guy get paid to do this?

If so, I predict there's a 99.9% chance Steve Jobs will wear jeans at WWDC.

I accept Paypal.

[kornyboy]

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Those are really bold statments. We do know a new iPhone is coming. We just don't know when. I in the boat that believes we won't see it at least until WWDC.

[QCassidy352]

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one the one hand, a production shortage/problem of this magnitude so late in the life cycle of a product would be weird. On the other hand, apple just introduced the 16GB model a little while ago, and just rolled out the iPhone in several new countries. Seems like a very strange time for an update.

[Roller]

It would make no sense for Apple to release iPhone 2.0 before iPhone software 2.0, which Steve said would ship in late June. It's possible that they're cutting back on production of the current models anticipating decreased demand as people put off buying until WWDC, though.

[yetanotherdave]

It's not a worldwide shortage, the UK store has a 24 hr delivery on 8 and 16gb models.

[DTphonehome]

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Originally Posted by Roller

It would make no sense for Apple to release iPhone 2.0 before iPhone software 2.0, which Steve said would ship in late June. It's possible that they're cutting back on production of the current models anticipating decreased demand as people put off buying until WWDC, though.

I think this is a reasonable explanation, but still, 3 months is a long time to not sell many iPhones. I'm sure most consumers are not yet aware that a 3G iPhone is likely on the way, nor will many US consumers care that much about it to hold off buying for 3 months.

[Stuart in Oz]

This is pure speculation, but.....

What if the new 3G hardware design is ready to roll? Maybe the small delay at the moment is the time it takes to change the production lines over to incorporate the 3G antenna & transmission circuitry.

They could quietly put the 3G stuff in the existing model, keep selling it as an EDGE phone, with the chipset permanently switched down to EDGE by software control (most 3G chipsets will run EDGE - my Palm Treo defaults to it if no 3G signal can be found) and when they announce the big official 3G launch at WWDC (to coincide with the iPhone 2.0 software) Steve can pull one of his big surprises - "Oh, and by the way - every iPhone sold since April is ready for 3G with just a software update."

Steve does like to surprise people. Just a thought.

[Lepton]

He is going to have to have hardware, the new OS, and the final SDK out there before App Store opens, so developers can have a go.

The new phone will be released on Cinco de Mayo May 5th, so that all the geeks will have iPhones to bring with them to WWDC where SDK 1.0 will be released, details on App Store will appear, and the developer program will widen out letting all those left on waiting lists in, and then after all have been able to polish their apps with SDK 1.0. new phone hardware and iPhone OS 2.0, the App Store will open near the end of June.

[illitrate23]

if Apple have a new model, would they need to clear it with the FCC all over again like last year?
of course, this wouldn't explain the current shortage, but i was thinking, surely we'll get plenty of warning that the 3G model is coming from the FCC report a few months beforehand?

or, as the first model was successful and passed, can they release subsequent changes without reverification?

[cr0nite]

I guess these shortages are due to a fire in a big South Korean Battery Factory (run by LG Chem). (Link)
Although iPhone is not a Laptop and it probably does not use batteries by LG Chem, a general shortage of batteries might have an impact on the production numbers of the iPhone.

[daleanthony]

Surely they wouldn't be releasing something soon, especially after they've just spent money producing new iPhone ads?

[SimonTheSoundMa]

Similar with the iPod Touch here in the UK. I can't buy any from any 16GB or 32GB models from local high street stores, they have not had deliveries for a couple of weeks and Apple have not said when they are coming. I have found a few stores with the 8GB model. Saying that, they haven't even seen models with the new firmware yet.

[Eduardo1971]

Wow. The Apple online store has posted a new rate plan for the iPhone "unlimited" minutes for $149.00.
Cool.

[Glenny2lappies]

Originally Posted by illitrate23

if Apple have a new model, would they need to clear it with the FCC all over again like last year?

Just a thought, but could they release a 3G phone internationally where it's wanted/needed, then get the FCC approval later?

There's the huge Japanese market which could swallow millions of iPhones, not to mention the rest of Asia and Europe. AIUI, the US networks (AT&T) are only just rolling out 3G.

The chances of a 3G iPhone before software version 2 is negligible. In fact I'd say nill. The new iPhone will also be launched with a huge fanfare to maximise press coverage and probably simultaneously in other markets, particularly Japan.

With the new 3rd party software shipping through iTunes, maybe Steve might make enough extra money to sell it unlocked?

[joeshell383]

Originally Posted by Glenny2lappies

Just a thought, but could they release a 3G phone internationally where it's wanted/needed, then get the FCC approval later?

There's the huge Japanese market which could swallow millions of iPhones, not to mention the rest of Asia and Europe. AIUI, the US networks (AT&T) are only just rolling out 3G.

The chances of a 3G iPhone before software version 2 is negligible. In fact I'd say nill. The new iPhone will also be launched with a huge fanfare to maximise press coverage and probably simultaneously in other markets, particularly Japan.

With the new 3rd party software shipping through iTunes, maybe Steve might make enough extra money to sell it unlocked?

1) What would happen if it didn't pass FCC approval? Create a new one just for the U.S.? No. The worldwide model(s) will be based on an FCC approved model.

2) There is plenty of 3G already available. AT&T has had 3G in all major cities for at least a year and many of the other phones they sell have 3G capabilities. Also, 3G falls back on EDGE.

Not that it's relevant to the iPhone, but the CDMA carriers have had 3G in most of the U.S. for 1-2 years.

[Grimace]

Apple doesn't need specific FCC approval if the 3G chip is already approved by the manufacturer (ie. Qualcomm already has it FCC approved for use in the USA.)

[saxamoophone]

Originally Posted by Stuart in Oz

This is pure speculation, but.....
What if the new 3G hardware design is ready to roll? Maybe the small delay at the moment is the time it takes to change the production lines over to incorporate the 3G antenna & transmission circuitry.

They could quietly put the 3G stuff in the existing model, keep selling it as an EDGE phone, with the chipset permanently switched down to EDGE by software control (most 3G chipsets will run EDGE - my Palm Treo defaults to it if no 3G signal can be found) and when they announce the big official 3G launch at WWDC (to coincide with the iPhone 2.0 software) Steve can pull one of his big surprises - "Oh, and by the way - every iPhone sold since April is ready for 3G with just a software update."

Steve does like to surprise people. Just a thought.

Well I agree that production of the current EDGE phone may very well have been cut....and for all we know, apple may have snuck FCC without anyone knowing...

That being said, I think we can all say there is a 0% chance that 3G phones are being shipped right now. Any idiot could open up their iPhone, look inside, and notice how they are using new chipsets. Would kind of ruin the old Jobs surprise, wouldn't it?

Also, I'm sure there may be other changes to the iPhone-2 besides just 3G. If Apple really wants to be a player in the phone market, they are going to have to be able to pump out at least ONE brand-new-device a year. Small Upgrades aren't going to cut it in such a huge industry. You have to be cutting edge EVERY year, or you'll fall behind. The iPhone has a lot of software potential that needs to be developed. But it also has to keep up hardware. I think a 3G Chipset, GPS, and upgraded Camera are 3 things that need to be included just to make people consider buying one in the coming year...

And before anyone complains, GPS only takes power when it's in use...so...yeah, it'll drain your device like there is no tomorrow...but....it's not something you leave on all day...

[simoleon]

Originally Posted by cr0nite

I guess these shortages are due to a fire in a big South Korean Battery Factory (run by LG Chem). (Link)
Although iPhone is not a Laptop and it probably does not use batteries by LG Chem, a general shortage of batteries might have an impact on the production numbers of the iPhone.

Yeah, but wouldn't laptop supply be dwindling?

[cr0nite]

Originally Posted by simoleon

Yeah, but wouldn't laptop supply be dwindling?

According to ZDNet, they are dwindling. Not as dramatically as the iPhone supply, though.

[hlynurge]

iPhone2 will definitely LOOK different. Every new iteration of the ipods has seen big changes in design. No way they're rolling out a massively upgraded new device (with all the fanfare) in the same form factor.
I predict/hope:
1.THINNER (ala ipod touch).
2.ever so slightly WIDER screen
3.Maybe change up the silver/black COLOR duo?
4. Hopefully fix the headphone jack and tweak the SIM-card slot system.

Jonathan Ive is not one to let dust settle on old designs.

[twoodcc]

i would love to see a new iPhone soon, but i really don't think it'll be here before June