3G iPhones and the FCC Myth

[MacRumors]

When the iPhone was first announced at Macworld San Francisco 2007, Steve Jobs specifically said that he did not want the iPhone's existence first revealed by the FCC. This comment has generated a bit of a following, with some commenters continuing to insist that the 3G iPhone will be revealed by the FCC first.

The problem with this theory is that Apple frequently announces new products that don't first show up in the FCC database. Also, companies are allowed to have some degree of confidentiality for products.

Apple submitted the original iPhone to the FCC on March 9, 2007. The documents, however, remained confidential until May 17, 2007, about six weeks prior to its launch. So while, it may have required months for approval, it only appeared in the FCC database for all to see about 6 weeks prior to the ship date.

In another example, Apple's Time Capsule was submitted to the FCC on January 15, 2008 -- the same day as its announcement. The documents were immediately public and the product again shipped about 6 weeks later.

If this rough pattern continues, we could see the 3G iPhone shipping by late July if Apple announces it (for example) at WWDC on June 10th.

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[David G.]

Good Analysis. I still can't buy an iPhone though.

[yoyo5280]

Smart... But does this mean that apple can not privately send their documents and stuff to the FCC before the launch? The FCC reveals all?

Hmmm...ill be back in america for a visit in July...maybe ill pick up a 3g iphone and unlock it for japan

[UncleWalt]

thank you for posting this, hopefully now there won't be a slew of replies on every iPhone thread pleading the same argument.

[manu chao]

To clarify, on 17 May 2007 the FCC approved the iPhone but Apple had requested a 45 day period of silence on the FCC's part beginning with the day of approval. Just read the letters in the link:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/r...%27BCGA1203%27

[Santa Rosa]

That is a topic that has been needing clarification, nicely done. The wait is now on then I suppose!!

[Mykbibby]

I doubt that Apple will do that due to Mossbergs comment. He so definitively said that the iPhone will be 3G in 60 days, that I'm sure it will ship at WWDC. Maybe they will hold a media event in May and announce it will ship at WWDC.

[maybesew]

Glad some more people are working to clarify this statement. Just as you say, Steve said they pre-announced at Macworld because they didn't want the iPhone to be discovered by the FCC filings. The delay between the announcement and release happened to be 6 months.

And what a lot of people have started to believe is the truth is the inverse of the situation. That the 6 month delay was dictated by the FCC approval process.

Memories of events can be a lot like the telephone game. If he mentioned the FCC approval process in the keynote, and the it took 6 months for the product to come out, well then the approval process must take 6 months.

[Chaszmyr]

A forthcoming 3G iPhone isn't a secret. Unless there were something about it that made it significantly different from the current iPhone (other than 3G), I see no reason for Apple to wait until they announce it before filing with the FCC.

[itcheroni]

Originally Posted by maybesew

Glad some more people are working to clarify this statement. Just as you say, Steve said they pre-announced at Macworld because they didn't want the iPhone to be discovered by the FCC filings. The delay between the announcement and release happened to be 6 months.

And what a lot of people have started to believe is the truth is the inverse of the situation. That the 6 month delay was dictated by the FCC approval process.

Memories of events can be a lot like the telephone game. If he mentioned the FCC approval process in the keynote, and the it took 6 months for the product to come out, well then the approval process must take 6 months.

Jobs also said that the iPhone would come out in June and not sooner because of the FCC approval process.

[syklee26]

there is a difference. this is a second generation iphone. I think current version will see some form of price cuts to pursuade some consumers to think about getting the current version even if 3G iPhone were to be released in March (which I think will see some price premium....about $499).

if Apple does not apply for FCC approval until the day of announcement, I would expect something like this:

3G iPhone $499 (32GB, GPS, some different form factor to distinguish from EDGE iPhone)

EDGE iPhone $399 (16GB, software 2.0, no GPS)
EDGE iPhone $299 (8GB, software 2.0, no GPS)

[extraextra]

Originally Posted by UncleWalt

thank you for posting this, hopefully now there won't be a slew of replies on every iPhone thread pleading the same argument.

I agree! Thanks for putting this on the front page.

[nagromme]

Originally Posted by Mykbibby

I doubt that Apple will do that due to Mossbergs comment. He so definitively said that the iPhone will be 3G in 60 days, that I'm sure it will ship at WWDC. Maybe they will hold a media event in May and announce it will ship at WWDC.

Or maybe NOT announce in May, let the FCC documents leak before the June release, and not even care... since the existence of a future 3G phone is no secret--Steve Jobs announced the device over a year ago.

[christopher3071]

Apple will not announce this phone before it is available. They will announce it and it will be available the next day. Here's why:
1) Walt Mossberg's statement
2) If they need to apply to the FCC (might not be necessary because pre-approved 3G chips exist), they'll do it 6 weeks before WWDC, simple, easy way to make sure it stays quiet on the FCC's end. So by the time it's released by the FCC, it'll be announced and available the next day.
3) So they sell as many iPhones as possible. They want to keep selling 2.5G iPhones until the day before they officially announce the 3G phone. (This wasn't necessary for the first iPhone because there was no previous iPhone.)

Apple can easily keep the info quiet on the FCC's end. I'm sure they're pissed about Walt's comment but what's done is done. In my opinion they don't want people knowing an exact date due to extremely decreased iPhone sales leading up to the 3G version.

[moonzilla]

an announcement in june, with a shipping date of july, would mean almost zero iphone sales for an entire month. i dont see apple doing that. id be pretty surprised if we didnt see an FCC filing by early to mid May. That would allow for shipping around WWDC, and i think its safe to say the average consumer doesnt follow FCC filings all that closely (thereby not killing sales as much as a WWDC announcement with a 5-6 weeks shipping estimate would). just my two cents.

[BklynKid]

Then again Mossberg seems to believes it'll be here "within 60 days" so does that mean Apple *might* not announce it at WWDC but rather make an announcement in the coming weeks and say it'll be available during or after WWDC. I think it might make more sense to have it actually be available for purchase while the press covers WWDC but at the same time I can't see Apple coming out of the blue with "hey, by the way, new iPhone is coming in June."


Oh well, either way by July I should have a brand new phone.

[Zwhaler]

Well, this really isn't that big of a deal, since it is almost universally expected that we will see the next iPhone in June. But FCC indication would be nice

Originally Posted by BklynKid

Then again Mossberg seems to believes it'll be here "within 60 days" so does that mean Apple *might* not announce it at WWDC but rather make an announcement in the coming weeks and say it'll be available during or after WWDC.

I doubt that Apple will announce the phone before it is released, because then there will be an entire month (or however much time is between announcement and launch) of nearly zero iPhone sales, since everyone will be waiting for the new one.

[puckhead193]

July would be nice. My birthday is early July so it will work out..so who wants to start a pool to get puckhead an iphone for his birthday?

[inkswamp]

Wow. Constant updates and price drops and tinkering and tweaking the iPhone and yet what kind of activity are we seeing with the iMac and the Mac Mini?

Love the phone, Apple, but the new thing where the computers are updated yearly sucks.

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by manu chao

To clarify, on 17 May 2007 the FCC approved the iPhone but Apple had requested a 45 day period of silence on the FCC's part beginning with the day of approval. Just read the letters in the link:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/oetcf/eas/r...%27BCGA1203%27

That was for temporary confidentiality before its launch date. What is revealing is that the FCC submission is completely confidential, and only the approval is revealed. This means that the 3G iPhone could have been submitted awhile ago, just not approved yet.

Walt's assertion of a 60 day release date makes me think he has an iside source, most likely associated with the FCC or one of the independent testing sources, which is why he is so confident.

Originally Posted by itcheroni

Jobs also said that the iPhone would come out in June and not sooner because of the FCC approval process.

That isn't exactly what he said. He said he wanted to announce the iPhone before the FCC did it for them. But we now know the process took only 9 weeks from submission to approval and that it wasn't submitted for almost two months past the MacWorld announcement. The probable reason for a 6 month heads up from the world's most secretive consumer tech company is to give people a chance to wait out their contracts and to make them think twice about renewing.

[Mykbibby]

Originally Posted by christopher3071

Apple will not announce this phone before it is available. They will announce it and it will be available the next day. Here's why:
1) Walt Mossberg's statement
2) If they need to apply to the FCC (might not be necessary because pre-approved 3G chips exist), they'll do it 6 weeks before WWDC, simple, easy way to make sure it stays quiet on the FCC's end. So by the time it's released by the FCC, it'll be announced and available the next day.
3) So they sell as many iPhones as possible. They want to keep selling 2.5G iPhones until the day before they officially announce the 3G phone. (This wasn't necessary for the first iPhone because there was no previous iPhone.)

Apple can easily keep the info quiet on the FCC's end. I'm sure they're pissed about Walt's comment but what's done is done. In my opinion they don't want people knowing an exact date due to extremely decreased iPhone sales leading up to the 3G version.

Or maybe not the next day, but maybe Jobs will say, "and it ships in just One Week", or something like that...

[solipsism]

Originally Posted by Zwhaler

I doubt that Apple will announce the phone before it is released, because then there will be an entire month (or however much time is between announcement and launch) of nearly zero iPhone sales, since everyone will be waiting for the new one.

The Chinese factories could be sitting on pre-made 3G iPhones waiting for the FCC ID info for the laser etching with shipments starting within a week of the approval. Apple could start pre-orders the same day that the FCC releases the approval. Certainly a lot of things would have to fall into place and Apple would have to be confident of the product they submitted, but if they use as many off-the-shelf parts as for the 2.5G iPhone (primarily with the 3G radio) then it's not a hard thing to accomplish.

Originally Posted by inkswamp

Wow. Constant updates and price drops and tinkering and tweaking the iPhone and yet what kind of activity are we seeing with the iMac and the Mac Mini?

Love the phone, Apple, but the new thing where the computers are updated yearly sucks.

MacRumors very own buyers guide says differently.

• http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/#Desktop_Macs

[christopher3071]

Originally Posted by Mykbibby

Or maybe not the next day, but maybe Jobs will say, "and it ships in just One Week", or something like that...

Yea, just not the month to 6 weeks people are talking about, its just ludicrous.

[JBaker122586]

I hope that a 3G iPhone isn't announced or released until the fall, just to see the meltdown on this site from all the people that "know" a new iPhone is coming in June.

[inkswamp]

Originally Posted by solipsism

MacRumors very own buyers guide says differently.

• http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/#Desktop_Macs

It does? It shows the last update to the Mini and the iMac happening in 8/2007 (9 months ago) and the one prior happening 9/2006, almost a year before. There was a time when updates/spec tweaks, major revisions or price drops occurred roughly every 4-6 months or so. In the last couple years, Apple has started stretching that to close to a year which, as far as I'm concerned, sucks.