Buyers Outlook for 2008-2009. Penryn iMacs Soon, Nehalem in 2009

[MacRumors]

The Buyer's Guide has a been an important part of MacRumors for many years now.

The basic reason why the Buyer's Guide exists is to prevent someone from buying at the wrong time of the upgrade cycle. Apple updates their products in a very consistent manner. A Mac comes out at a certain price with certain features. The price and features of that particular Mac stay exactly the same throughout the lifespan of the product. So, if a customer buys on Day #1, they are getting the fastest/newest technology for the dollar. The problem, however, is that 8 months later, on the day prior to its refresh, that Mac costs the exact same money, but contains 8 month old technology.

Before the move to Intel this trend could be even more striking, as the PowerPC updates were especially secretive and we had no roadmap for future PowerPC processors. Instead, one day Apple would announce "new Macs," and anyone who just bought a Mac would curse their luck. Of course, the Buyer's Guide combined with the most recent rumors helped prevent that.

Since the move to Intel, however, the dynamics have changed a bit. First, we know what's coming 1-2 years in advance. Intel is very open about their plans, and we know that Apple will use their newest processors within a reasonable timeframe. Second, we've even heard rumors that Apple has even been forced to update their Macs ahead of what might be considered the "natural" refresh cycle in order to keep up with Intel's aggressive pace. These changes have caused some interesting side effects.



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[Markleshark]

Good insight and article, as I'm in the market for a new Mac towards the end of the year it's also very helpful. Thanks.

[inkswamp]

The problem, however, is that 8 months later, on the day prior to its refresh, that Mac costs the exact same money,

I really miss Apple's older approach. I've complained about this a few times here on this very site that Apple appears to be shifting into an update cycle for its consumer machines that is closer to 1 year. IMO, that seriously sucks. They used to do updates, price drops, or spec bumps every 4-5 months (and sometimes sooner than that) which was great. I don't understand why they now carry the same iMac, with the same specs, for almost a full year without lowering the price. There really is no excuse for that and it's a disappointing practice, especially considering how rapidly things change. If Apple is going to stretch their updates out longer, they really need to adjust the prices along the way as the components inside become not only less expensive, but less powerful relative to whatever has come along since.

[Neutral Gamer]

Unless Apple adds other compelling features to the next iMac revision, readers may want to pause a moment before reflexively ordering the newest Mac.

That's a good point actually. At least with the latest MBP's we got the Multi-Touch trackpad and slightly better battery life but what else could we expect from the forthcoming iMac Penryn revisions? It seems too early for either a new design or new feautures along the lines of an "iMac Touch". New graphics card would be nice though ...

Nehalem, however, won't be ready for use in a Mac until early 2009.

I can imagine this being a real dilemma for some people contemplating a MBP. I'm sure for most people, a soon to come redesign of the MBP's is all they're waiting for to make their purchase. But the more hardcore "technology victims" may be prepared to hold on for longer if a much faster model is coming only 6 months after the Summer. (Although by then rumors of yet another amazing new model may have surfaced and they'll just keep waiting and waiting ...)

Originally Posted by inkswamp

If Apple is going to stretch their updates out longer, they really need to adjust the prices along the way as the components inside become not only less expensive, but less powerful relative to whatever has come along since.

I can understand that point but you have to remember that, compared to PC's, Macs don't fall as much or as rapidly in price. So if you time it right you can sell before an update and not lose as much as you may think. It's not perfect I know but better than having a PC which can become worthless very, very quickly (cue jokes from unscrupulous members about PC's being useless as soon as you buy them ... ).

[kinless]

I've been grateful for the MR Buyer's Guide for several years. It's what helped me strategically plan for the jump from my old 1998 Beige G3 to my new 2008 Mac Pro (8-core). I figured I was caught up in the "keep waiting" routine long enough.

I know better technology is coming out next year, but I can't keep putting off my immediate plans for something continuously down the line. Besides, I do plan on replacing my 12" Powerbook G4 in 2010, hoping the Nehalem chips will make its way into MacBook Pros by then.

As for the iMacs, if you're at consumer level then any speed gains for the next generation of chips could be negligible for what applications you plan on using. If you fall into this category, then just get the next rev of the iMac. Day 1, of course.

[sebastianlewis]

Originally Posted by Neutral Gamer

That's a good point actually. At least with the latest MBP's we got the Multi-Touch trackpad and slightly better battery life but what else could we expect from the forthcoming iMac Penryn revisions? It seems too early for either a new design or new feautures along the lines of an "iMac Touch". New graphics card would be nice though ...

Doesn't even have to be super new, as long as it's an NVIDIA of the same class... although I haven't read the details on ATI's and NVIDIA's latest cards yet... hmmm, well I'll get back to this later.

I can imagine this being a real dilemma for some people contemplating a MBP. I'm sure for most people, a soon to come redesign of the MBP's is all they're waiting for to make their purchase. But the more hardcore "technology victims" may be prepared to hold on for longer if a much faster model is coming only 6 months after the Summer. (Although by then rumors of yet another amazing new model may have surfaced and they'll just keep waiting and waiting ...)

Nehalem will make Penryn look like a flea, Penryn introduced SSE4 and transitioned to a High-K gate metal, both are great improvements but are in the end just a minor performance update, but that same tech will still be there in Nehalem, and of course Nehalem is introducing the QuickPath Interconnect, something to improve bandwidth between memory and CPU, one of the biggest bottlenecks in a computer. I'm really bad at explaining these things second-hand though so I'm just going to point you to my original source rather than confuse you: What you need to know about Intel's Nehalem CPU [arstechnica.com]

Anyway I was planning on upgrading to a Macbook Pro in November regardless of the CPU at the time, but considering almost all my frustrations with my Macbook come with that memory bottleneck (and of course the lack of RAM, still only a Gig and I don't really want to upgrade it), QPI is definitely worth delaying that until the Nehalem Macbook Pro.

Originally Posted by Sbrocket

So many decisions. Go with a Montevina MBP in June or wait for the overhaul with Nehalem in a year. Waiting just means actually extending my AppleCare (which isn't so cheap but definitely necessary) and losing more resale value on my 2.4GHz MBP. Plus, if Nehalem is going to be big (and the question is...is it?) and introduce many new changes are we sure its such a good idea to try and get in on the first revision?

You can read the details of Nehalem yourself in the article I linked to above, but if you're the late adopter type and in the market for a new Macbook Pro, go ahead and get a Montevina Macbook Pro, all of Nehalem's advancements will still be there in a couple of years and any kinks should be worked out, but if you're using a Macbook Pro that's less than a year old (and it sounds like you are) and it's still working for you, why dump it for a new one? Wait a while, extend AppleCare and get the most out of what you have now, and whatever you do don't ever downgrade to a Macbook the next time you go computer shopping.

Sebastian

[137489]

Originally Posted by kinless

I've been grateful for the MR Buyer's Guide for several years. It's what helped me strategically plan for the jump from my old 1998 Beige G3 to my new 2008 Mac Pro (8-core). I figured I was caught up in the "keep waiting" routine long enough.

I know better technology is coming out next year, but I can't keep putting off my immediate plans for something continuously down the line. Besides, I do plan on replacing my 12" Powerbook G4 in 2010, hoping the Nehalem chips will make its way into MacBook Pros by then.

As for the iMacs, if you're at consumer level then any speed gains for the next generation of chips could be negligible for what applications you plan on using. If you fall into this category, then just get the next rev of the iMac. Day 1, of course.

WOW!!! a 1998 computer that is still running!!!!!!! Dude that is 10 years!!! Can't say the same for the PC world. very few PC's that old are still functioning- or if they are, you just do not want to use them anymore. I just made the switch from Windows and ordered my Macbook from MacMall today. If I come anywhere close to running that long with my new Mac, I will be a very happy man . My wife is sick of me dishing out $1,000 to $1,500 on a new computer every couple of years. Since 2004, I have been in the same boat as you, wanting to to buy, but heard that upgrades were coming. I finally had the money and made the jump today. Since this is not going to be a work computer, I can live for a few years with what I ordered.

[Nano-tube]

Originally Posted by kinless

I've been grateful for the MR Buyer's Guide for several years. It's what helped me strategically plan for the jump from my old 1998 Beige G3 to my new 2008 Mac Pro (8-core). I figured I was caught up in the "keep waiting" routine long enough.

I know better technology is coming out next year, but I can't keep putting off my immediate plans for something continuously down the line. Besides, I do plan on replacing my 12" Powerbook G4 in 2010, hoping the Nehalem chips will make its way into MacBook Pros by then.

As for the iMacs, if you're at consumer level then any speed gains for the next generation of chips could be negligible for what applications you plan on using. If you fall into this category, then just get the next rev of the iMac. Day 1, of course.

It always amazes me - the longevity of Macs. This guy has been using the same machine for 10 years. In computer time, 10 years is like 50 years in car time. This was really one of the reasons that I bought my PowerMac G5 and it still works great - with Leopard and all the newest software.

Kudos for Apple for producing such long living products (HW & SW).

I have a PC too that I bought around the same time as the Mac. It runs XP great but it won't be able to handle vista.

If I'll have the money I will look into the Nehalem release. From everything I read, Nehalem should be a true upgrade. Let's hope that as much developers (Apple included) take advantage of this new CPU.

[MikeTheC]

Originally Posted by kinless

I've been grateful for the MR Buyer's Guide for several years. It's what helped me strategically plan for the jump from my old 1998 Beige G3 to my new 2008 Mac Pro (8-core). I figured I was caught up in the "keep waiting" routine long enough.

I've already sent Joe a private message on this, but thought I'd use his mention of a very, very "vintage" Mac as an opportunity to point out that, given the stability and reliability of the hardware, such equipment as this should not be considered totally worthless.

I own / run / maintain a server on just such a system. It's actually a 1997 model year PowerMac G3 Desktop, 266MHz OC'd to 300MHz (woo hoo!). I've repurposed it as a very solid Debian Linux-based file and web server. Isn't it cool to know you can run the current version of Apache on 10 year old hardware? And it actually works just the way it should, too!

[StevieMooey]

Originally Posted by Neutral Gamer

I can imagine this being a real dilemma for some people contemplating a MBP. I'm sure for most people, a soon to come redesign of the MBP's is all they're waiting for to make their purchase. But the more hardcore "technology victims" may be prepared to hold on for longer if a much faster model is coming only 6 months after the Summer. (Although by then rumors of yet another amazing new model may have surfaced and they'll just keep waiting and waiting ...)

This suits me perfectly! Having just received my Penryn MBP, my next upgrade will be to a redesigned MBP with Nehalem tech. next year.

[iPoodOverZune]

Originally Posted by Neutral Gamer

I can imagine this being a real dilemma for some people contemplating a MBP. I'm sure for most people, a soon to come redesign of the MBP's is all they're waiting for to make their purchase. But the more hardcore "technology victims" may be prepared to hold on for longer if a much faster model is coming only 6 months after the Summer. (Although by then rumors of yet another amazing new model may have surfaced and they'll just keep waiting and waiting ...)

"We keep on waiting...
Waiting on the Mac to change ..."

[kresh]

Originally Posted by inkswamp

If Apple is going to stretch their updates out longer, they really need to adjust the prices along the way as the components inside become not only less expensive, but less powerful relative to whatever has come along since.

That would create even more problems.

Imagine if Apple discounted the iMac a dollar a day (or $10 a week, or whatever currency in your country) due to the aging technology inside, and when the iMac is updated the price goes back to full retail.

When would everyone buy an iMac? It would be a crazy game of trying to buy an iMac right before the update to get the best discount. So if the iMac is updated once a year, then Apple is going to permanently lower the price point of the iMac buy $360 or so. That is a losing situation for Apple as it would be giving away the margin gravy that they currently make.

This probably would not be the case for upgrades like the current Core to Nehalem upgrade, but these kinds of updates don't happen near as frequently as minor updates and speed bumps.

[Qwickshot]

Originally Posted by kresh

That would create even more problems.

Imagine if Apple discounted the iMac a dollar a day (or $10 a week, or whatever currency in your country) due to the aging technology inside, and when the iMac is updated the price goes back to full retail.

Theres also the fact that 'current generation' computer parts don't go down in price that much over time. Take the desktop Q6600, i brought mine 8 months ago for £160inc VAT. Its currently Retailing for £150inc VAT. The P35 based motherboard i have has only dropped £15 aswell and that has had the X35 and the X45 come after it too. Its only when new stuff comes out that the old is discounted heavily to shift it fast. But then apple updates to the new so i dont see what the poblem is? Dells prices dont really change much either, but things like BTO options ae updated more frequently which makes it 'cheaper'. Your still paying the same, you just get a bigger. This dont apply to long term technology such as Blue Ray. Just look at historic similar hardware (DVD, CD etc.)

[eastcoastsurfer]

Originally Posted by kresh

That would create even more problems.

Imagine if Apple discounted the iMac a dollar a day (or $10 a week, or whatever currency in your country) due to the aging technology inside, and when the iMac is updated the price goes back to full retail.

When would everyone buy an iMac? It would be a crazy game of trying to buy an iMac right before the update to get the best discount. So if the iMac is updated once a year, then Apple is going to permanently lower the price point of the iMac buy $360 or so. That is a losing situation for Apple as it would be giving away the margin gravy that they currently make.

This probably would not be the case for upgrades like the current Core to Nehalem upgrade, but these kinds of updates don't happen near as frequently as minor updates and speed bumps.

People buy PCs all the time and this is essentially what they do. The difference is that PC makers actually tell people about upcoming products. The way Apple releases their products is one thing that really bugs me. Makes it impossible to plan for (which is pretty much required in an enterprise setting).

[Digital Skunk]

Originally Posted by eastcoastsurfer

People buy PCs all the time and this is essentially what they do. The difference is that PC makers actually tell people about upcoming products. The way Apple releases their products is one thing that really bugs me. Makes it impossible to plan for (which is pretty much required in an enterprise setting).

Not really, it more depends on your own particular business. As was said before, the improvements from the current model to the new one is always small, and if a business needs the tools to do the job then why would they be waiting to get new machines.

Most enterprise markets don't sit on the fence waiting to get new machines when they can just buy one and get back to work.

[kresh]

Originally Posted by eastcoastsurfer

People buy PCs all the time and this is essentially what they do. The difference is that PC makers actually tell people about upcoming products. The way Apple releases their products is one thing that really bugs me. Makes it impossible to plan for (which is pretty much required in an enterprise setting).

That's my whole point. PC manufacturer's are trapped in a high volume, low margin rat race. It's a no win situation, someone, somewhere, will always undercut you on price. it's just a fact of life.

Apple has carved out a niche where they have divorced the (sum of the parts) = (the selling price) sales model. Apple maintains fantastic margins and is not dependent on high volume.

I mean, be honest, do you think that Apple lacks the ability to aggressively go after the Enterprise market? It's not a lack of ability, but a lack of desire. There is no future in selling $300 boxes to the Enterprise market.

The "Proof of the Pudding" as they say is the fact that both Dell and HP had to buy companies that were doing something they would or could not do. Dell purchased Alienware and HP purchased VooDoo to get into a low volume High margin niche. It's where the money's at.

[elppa]

Originally Posted by inkswamp

If Apple is going to stretch their updates out longer, they really need to adjust the prices along the way as the components inside become not only less expensive, but less powerful relative to whatever has come along since.

It's not necessarily right, but this is what Apple does:

[1] Take a hit on their margins for the first few months selling the latest technology at a good price.
[2] Recoup that money later selling old technology at the same price.

Originally Posted by kinless

It's what helped me strategically plan for the jump from my old 1998 Beige G3 to my new 2008 Mac Pro (8-core).

Did your ears pop and stomach get a little queasy? That's some upgrade!

[headfuzz]

Originally Posted by elppa

Did your ears pop and stomach get a little queasy? That's some upgrade!

Hehe exactly what I thought! That's like going from flying a teeny Cessna to an F-15 Eagle!

[Clive At Five]

Originally Posted by MacRumors

As we await the Penryn revisions for the iMac, readers should be aware that Penryn's reduced power consumption will not be particularly beneficial to desktop computers. Unless Apple adds other compelling features to the next iMac revision, readers may want to pause a moment before reflexively ordering the newest Mac.

For Mini yearners, however, they will gain Santa Rosa, meaning a 4GB RAM capacity, and x3100 graphics... Quite a jump from 3GB and GMA 950 or whatever they had.

-Clive

[Zwhaler]

Cool article. Am I the only one who thinks Apple will skip the Penryn and Santa Rosa combo and will wait until June to update it to Montevina?

[daneoni]

Originally Posted by Zwhaler

Cool article. Am I the only one who thinks Apple will skip the Penryn and Santa Rosa combo and will wait until June to update it to Montevina?

Umm Apple is currently shipping the Penryn/Santa Rosa combo...if you mean the iMac i also doubt that. the iMacs/mini are somewhat notorious for being updated at a later period compared to the MacBooks/Pro machines. The iMac is highly likely to get penryn treatment within the next few weeks

[Thomas2006]

Originally Posted by Zwhaler

Cool article. Am I the only one who thinks Apple will skip the Penryn and Santa Rosa combo and will wait until June to update it to Montevina?

I think the iMac will get the Penryn/Santa Rosa combo now and move to the Montevina platform when there are quad-core Penryns available, which is why they are overdue for their update, and then jump to Nehalem/Calpella next year.

[JitteryJimmy]

Originally Posted by inkswamp

They used to do updates, price drops, or spec bumps every 4-5 months (and sometimes sooner than that) which was great. I don't understand why they now carry the same iMac, with the same specs, for almost a full year without lowering the price.

It depends on the model. The iMac was last updated 8 months ago.

In contrast, the MacBook was updated three times within the last year.

As for the reasons why Apple hasn't dropped the price of the iMac - clearly, Apple doesn't feel that would be good in terms of their bottom line. And that's not surprising, seeing how the value of the US dollar has crashed over the last year - meaning that Apple's real costs in terms of manufacturing and purchasing have increased dramatically.

[bdkennedy1]

I thought the Penryn processors had the new SSE4 instruction set which Apple was rumored to take advantage of in a Leopard update that was supposed to substantially boost the speed of the OS?

[veeco3110]

heard this one before....