Obama [probably] takes NC

CorvusCamenarum · May 6, 2008, 06:38 PM

CNN is calling North Carolina for Obama. It's on their front page.

stevento · May 6, 2008, 09:14 PM

well, this means Hillary has lost whatever she got out of PA.

she better snatch IN, or she's going to have a hard time convincing people that she should stay.

miloblithe · 09:42 PM

-Indiana looks like it's going to be close, but that Clinton will pull it out. Tiny margin though. I hope we're not forced to continue with this, but most likely, Clinton will drag it out another week, win big in West Virginia on the 13th, argue that means a whole heck of a lot, then on the 20th they'll split Kentucky and Oregon, all the while with her remaining far behind Obama in votes, and unable to catch up.

Let's hope she withdraws.

Note, there is now no conceivable way that she can catch Obama either in pledged delegates OR the "popular vote." Even if she wins all the remaining elections by an 85%-15% margin, she can't catch up in pledged delegates. Obama will have increased his lead in the "popular vote" by roughly 200,000 votes today.

No withdrawal:

"We've broken the tie. It's full speed on to the White House!" - Clinton

Wow. 2 seconds to go into saying please give me money. Contrast to Obama's speech today. She may be done tomorrow. If she has lost big today and is broke, I think she's finished.

yg17 · May 6, 2008, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevento

well, this means Hillary has lost whatever she got out of PA.

she better snatch IN, or she's going to have a hard time convincing people that she should stay.

If she snatches IN, it'll be like 1 or 2 points, likely nearly a 50/50 delegate split, and not the larger margin she was expecting. Still not enough to convince anyone anything other than she needs to drop out ASAP.

trebblekicked · May 6, 2008, 09:46 PM

The Lake County results won't come in until 11. That's where Gary is and current estimates say he'd have to grab 57% of the vote there to take the state. That's hardly impossible.

If Clinton does win, it'll be by less than 3%. North Carolina looks like a blowout. By losing so much ground tonight, expect the news cycles between now and West Virginia to be very tough on Clinton. Even if she sticks around, I expect enough Supers to commit to Obama that he can lock up the nomination in Oregon.

Mike Teezie · May 6, 2008, 09:49 PM

Listening to her victory speech, I just don't share you guys' enthusiasm.

She will drag this out until the convention.

miloblithe · May 6, 2008, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trebblekicked

The Lake County results won't come in until 11. That's where Gary is and current estimates say he'd have to grab 57% of the vote there to take the state. That's hardly impossible.

I doubt the Clinton campaign is careless enough to claim victory without being reasonably sure they'll get it.

I guess we'll see.

Up, there we go:

"...that's why it's so important that we count the votes of Florida and Michigan."

MacNut · May 6, 2008, 10:17 PM

The talking heads are saying that Hillary might have back door conceded.

zioxide · May 6, 2008, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miloblithe

I doubt the Clinton campaign is careless enough to claim victory without being reasonably sure they'll get it.

Obviously you weren't paying attention on March 4th when she claimed she won Texas.

NAG · May 6, 2008, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Teezie

Listening to her victory speech, I just don't share you guys' enthusiasm.

She will drag this out until the convention.

My belief is that the superdelegates will stop this before the convention so as to give the winner more time to campaign against McCain. But yeah, it's going to drag on for a while yet.

miloblithe · May 6, 2008, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zioxide

Obviously you weren't paying attention on March 4th when she claimed she won Texas.

She won the Texas primary by over 100,000 votes. Hard to dispute that. Certainly easier to argue that the primary is more important than the caucus than it is easy to argue she won the Indiana primary if in fact she lost it.

MacNut · May 6, 2008, 11:16 PM

The race might be over tonight if Indiana goes to Obama.

miloblithe · May 6, 2008, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacNut

The race might be over tonight if Indiana goes to Obama.

There should be no question that if Clinton loses Indiana she should drop out.

atszyman · May 6, 2008, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miloblithe

There should be no question that if Clinton loses Indiana she should drop out.

There should be no question, but unfortunately there is.

The current nightmare I have is that she'll take her support to mean she could make it as an independent, energizing the GOP base and splitting the Democrats, handing the job to McCain.

trebblekicked · May 6, 2008, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miloblithe

There should be no question that if Clinton loses Indiana she should drop out.

Seems silly that 20,000 votes will be the difference between her dropping out or not. Her inability to keep North Carolina close and her inability to close out Indiana should be a clear enough message, regardless which side of the 50.9% she ends up with.

The media has kept the narrative squarely on her side since PA - it's in their best interest to keep the race going. The math is inexcusably difficult now, so you can expect that to change. All that remains is the right way for her to make a graceful exit.

Also, Lake County is currently going 75/25 for Obama with about a quarter of the precincts in. Those precincts include half of Gary, which will go heavily to Obama. The rest should split fairly evenly. Gary could very easily flip this, and CBS is going to have a bit of egg on it's face.

miloblithe · May 6, 2008, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atszyman

There should be no question, but unfortunately there is.

The current nightmare I have is that she'll take her support to mean she could make it as an independent, energizing the GOP base and splitting the Democrats, handing the job to McCain.

Sounds like a fun nightmare, but I'd say not a chance.

Abstract · May 6, 2008, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacNut

The talking heads are saying that Hillary might have back door conceded.

Has the innuendo thread moved here?

NAG · May 6, 2008, 11:36 PM

Ack, horrible pictures in my head now. You're evil...are you Cheney?

MacNut · May 6, 2008, 11:36 PM

Well we know it's not Bill's head talking to her.

16,000

miloblithe · May 6, 2008, 11:38 PM

Looks like Lake country's evening out with the down-county vote. Getting closer, but looking like Clinton will eek it out. Union county still to report.

yg17 · May 6, 2008, 11:50 PM

Hillary canceled all media appearances tomorrow morning, and the latest fundraising e-mail didn't ask for any money....could she be dropping out tomorrow?

And check out the front page of HuffPo:

MacNut · May 7, 2008, 12:12 AM

aaaaannnnnd the race goes on....

NAG · May 7, 2008, 12:23 AM

So how is a 50/50 "win" and losing by over 10 full speed ahead, exactly?

miloblithe · May 7, 2008, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NAG

So how is a 50/50 "win" and losing by over 10 full speed ahead, exactly?

The (weak) argument is 2 out of the last 3.

What's the source on Clinton canceling events tomorrow morning?

NAG · May 7, 2008, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Tim Russert, a colleague reports, just said that Hillary Clinton canceled her scheduled appearances on the morning shows tomorrow.

It's a sign of weakness she can ill afford at a moment when questions about whether she can continue are mounting.

source

May 6, 2008, 06:38 PM	#1
CorvusCamenarum macrumors 65816 Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Birmingham, AL	Obama [probably] takes NC CNN is calling North Carolina for Obama. It's on their front page. __________________ Much of modern liberalism consists of people trying to get revenge on the football players to whom they felt inferior in school.
	0

May 6, 2008, 09:14 PM	#2
stevento macrumors 6502 Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Los Angeles	well, this means Hillary has lost whatever she got out of PA. she better snatch IN, or she's going to have a hard time convincing people that she should stay. __________________ Follow me: @luckyFTW
	0

May 6, 2008, 09:28 PM	#3
miloblithe macrumors 68020 Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Washington, DC	-Indiana looks like it's going to be close, but that Clinton will pull it out. Tiny margin though. I hope we're not forced to continue with this, but most likely, Clinton will drag it out another week, win big in West Virginia on the 13th, argue that means a whole heck of a lot, then on the 20th they'll split Kentucky and Oregon, all the while with her remaining far behind Obama in votes, and unable to catch up. Let's hope she withdraws. Note, there is now no conceivable way that she can catch Obama either in pledged delegates OR the "popular vote." Even if she wins all the remaining elections by an 85%-15% margin, she can't catch up in pledged delegates. Obama will have increased his lead in the "popular vote" by roughly 200,000 votes today. No withdrawal: "We've broken the tie. It's full speed on to the White House!" - Clinton Wow. 2 seconds to go into saying please give me money. Contrast to Obama's speech today. She may be done tomorrow. If she has lost big today and is broke, I think she's finished. Last edited by miloblithe; May 6, 2008 at 09:42 PM.
	0

May 6, 2008, 09:46 PM	#5
trebblekicked macrumors 6502a Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Chicago, IL, USA	The Lake County results won't come in until 11. That's where Gary is and current estimates say he'd have to grab 57% of the vote there to take the state. That's hardly impossible. If Clinton does win, it'll be by less than 3%. North Carolina looks like a blowout. By losing so much ground tonight, expect the news cycles between now and West Virginia to be very tough on Clinton. Even if she sticks around, I expect enough Supers to commit to Obama that he can lock up the nomination in Oregon. __________________ i work in showbiz 16GB iPhone 3G, 20" C2Duo iMac, Santa Rosa MacBook Pro, 80gb iPod
	0

May 6, 2008, 10:17 PM	#8
MacNut macrumors P6 Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: CT	The talking heads are saying that Hillary might have back door conceded. __________________ Remember Sandy Hook. 42 the Final Season.
	0

May 6, 2008, 09:49 PM	#6
Mike Teezie macrumors 68020 Join Date: Nov 2002	Listening to her victory speech, I just don't share you guys' enthusiasm. She will drag this out until the convention.
	0

May 6, 2008, 11:16 PM	#12
MacNut macrumors P6 Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: CT	The race might be over tonight if Indiana goes to Obama. __________________ Remember Sandy Hook. 42 the Final Season.
	0

May 6, 2008, 11:36 PM	#18
NAG macrumors 68030 Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: /usr/local/apps/nag	Ack, horrible pictures in my head now. You're evil...are you Cheney? __________________ Thirty-one days ago it was earlier.
	0

May 6, 2008, 11:38 PM	#20
miloblithe macrumors 68020 Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Washington, DC	Looks like Lake country's evening out with the down-county vote. Getting closer, but looking like Clinton will eek it out. Union county still to report.
	0

May 6, 2008, 11:50 PM	#21
yg17 macrumors G5 Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: St. Louis, MO	Hillary canceled all media appearances tomorrow morning, and the latest fundraising e-mail didn't ask for any money....could she be dropping out tomorrow? And check out the front page of HuffPo: Attached Thumbnails __________________ Barack Obama is not a foreign born, brown skinned, anti-war socialist who gives away healthcare. You're thinking of Jesus.
	0

May 7, 2008, 12:12 AM	#22
MacNut macrumors P6 Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: CT	aaaaannnnnd the race goes on.... __________________ Remember Sandy Hook. 42 the Final Season.
	0

May 7, 2008, 12:23 AM	#23
NAG macrumors 68030 Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: /usr/local/apps/nag	So how is a 50/50 "win" and losing by over 10 full speed ahead, exactly? __________________ Thirty-one days ago it was earlier.
	0

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