Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview

[MacBytes]

Category: Opinion/Interviews
Link: Steve Jobs: The Rolling Stone Interview

Posted on MacBytes.com

Approved by arn

[edesignuk]

Hmmm...that was an intresting read...

[redAPPLE]

i agree. really interesting. ok people. now stop talking about a "movie store".

[pbooker]

Shouldn't it say "Do you see an iTunes movie store?"

It may be corrected by the time I post this.

Yup it was.

[Viv]

Hey the guy talks sense!

Viv

[nickmcghie]

Jobs replies: "We don't think that's what people want. A movie takes forever to download -- there's no instant gratification."

He couldn't be more wrong. Sure, it's not for everybody just yet, but from my own experience living in a college dorm with a superfast internet connection, the truth couldn't be further from what he thinks.

Apple has already made a huge hit with the iTunes Music Store in terms of publicity and mindshare recognition, but that hasn't really translated into much sales for college age kids. A song is considered relatively to purchase online from a buck apiece, and it's still much easier to just download from a P2P service. People are always hyping the ease of use and reliability of legal sites, but it's really not that big of a deal. P2P networks aren't exactly difficult to use, and if you do happen to download a bad copy of a song, you just go back and find another to download.

A movie, on the other hand, is what really would benefit from an online store. It takes longer to download a movie than a song, but with a speedy internet connection, it can take as little as 5-10 minutes, sometimes even less. Sure, that's not instant gratification, but it's plenty for most people. The main problem here, however, is reliability. There is a far greater proportion of "bad" copies of movies on P2P networks than music. People have already been shown to be willing to pay for "soft" copies of movies via pay-per-view on cable, so why wouldn't they do the same for high-qualityz, reliable copies from an online movie store? A lot more people watch movies on their computers than all those know-it-all analysts think.

Another important issue is selection. One of the often cited advantages of P2P music is the ability to find old and rare tunes, but that isn't really the case with movies. Rare movies are just as hard to come by as Beatles music is on the iTMS. Instead of 30-sec previews, Apple could show trailers of movies in an online movie store.

I believe that, in the long run, an online movie store has a far greater greater potential revenue stream than a music store. And I don't think it's too late to get the bandwagon started today.

[cubist]

Re the advances (at the end of the article), I don't think those can be eliminated, because the musician uses that to hire musicians, buy better equipment, get a good studio, etc. They could probably be reduced, I suppose.

[spinner]

I think that what he said about Dell and M$ is quite interesting.
I have to agree with him on Dell, there just some things you want to see and hold...and then take home with you right now.
As for the M$ comment I am not so sure. Yes they may be making a copy & maybe it won't be as good but you put that copy on every desktop of every new computer and before long they start gaining market share by default, not because they are better.

[Trimix]

sj has it really figured out - he UNDERSTANDS the market, i am gonna call my broker and order more AAPL

[copperpipe]

no nonsense, I love it! Steve has his feet grounded, that's for sure. Talk to Bill Gates, Ballmer, the head of any major technology company and they blah blah blah away telling you about things you don't need. They got their heads in the clouds, and most of the "innovations" that come out these days don't simplify your life one bit. That's why Apple is so successful under Steve Jobs - he gets rid of all the bullsh*t and says "will people actually use it", and "will it make their lives better". Isn't that why wwee love OS X? Isn't that why we love iTMS? Isn't that why we love, iTunes, iMovie, iCal?

[howard]

very good article.

i like his "remedy" for the record companies, i think it makes a lot of sense.

he always has the intrigueing but vague answers to some questions. like "we are going to be very competitive" thats gotta mean changes...but what.

[ITR 81]

I think you should be able to dl movies from an online store. I think it would work for all college and just out of college kids around the world. It's either that or buy a DVD or borrow a DVD.

I like the talk about SJ thinking about doing his own record label. Even if it doesn't happen it's atleast been on his mind.

[jeremy.king]

Why download a movie when you can buy it at a store?

Its not like a movie download service is going to offer much better prices. Add in time and cost to burn it to DVD and its not really worth it. In reality, are people going to take their DVDs with them everywhere on their 200 GB iPod (someday )? Add in complexities of DVD encryption, anti-piracy techniques and its a huge undertaking to make this even a reality...but still not worth it.

As for music...The one benefit of iTMS is that you don't have to buy the whole album to enjoy an artist's music. You can download a single song! If you noticed recently CD prices are falling and starting to compete with the "Buy album" feature of iTMS. What are you going to do with a movie? Download a chapter or two from a movie? I don't think so.

If you are looking for one time viewing, don't cable companies and satellite providers already have this covered with Video on Demand services?

I just don't see the need for Movie downloads.

[centauratlas]

>We don't think that's what people want. A movie takes forever to download -- there's no instant gratification."<

4-5-6 years ago, people said the same thing about music (at least at a reasonably good bit rate). 2-3 years from now it will be quite do-able.

I hope he is saying that *now* while planning for the future and doesn't want to tip his hand regarding Apple's plans.

As hard drives get larger it is *much* more reasonable to have an "iVideo" (like iTunes for DVDs) to manage your DVD collection and stream it to TVs in your house.

At that point people will want to download directly to the computer and avoid the DVD step.

All the advantages re iTunes and Music apply here: easy, very quick (and quicker in the future), cheaper (costs less if you don't need to press CDs), easy to organize etc.

If you can tie this in with a ReplyTV/TiVo type interface you'll see how nice it is.

You can share your DVDs all over the house, it is simple and very convienent.

[centauratlas]

Originally posted by kingjr3
Why download a movie when you can buy it at a store?

Add in time and cost to burn it to DVD and its not really worth it. In reality, are people going to take their DVDs with them everywhere on their 200 GB iPod (someday )?

1. There were 1000s of people last weekend who couldn't *get* to a store to get a DVD due to the snowstorms in the north east.

2. You never *have* to burn it to a DVD. You stream it (like iTunes) to your TV directly from your computer. This is what ReplayTV allows between its units and something that Apple will do eventually even if they don't realize it right now.

[kenaustus]

I don't think purchasing a movie over the internet would be a major success. When you add the cost of the DVD to burn the movie and the cost of the purchase it would start to get rather expensive.

The road to success is therefore in renting the movies, and including software to block burning. The movie would stay on the HD for a certain number of days and then automatically be cleared, or allow a certain number of viewings. Burning would be an option that you pay for and my guess is that it would be for older, very hard to find movies.

[Edot]

Originally posted by nickmcghie
He couldn't be more wrong. Sure, it's not for everybody just yet, but from my own experience living in a college dorm with a superfast internet connection, the truth couldn't be further from what he thinks.

Apple has already made a huge hit with the iTunes Music Store in terms of publicity and mindshare recognition, but that hasn't really translated into much sales for college age kids. A song is considered relatively to purchase online from a buck apiece, and it's still much easier to just download from a P2P service. People are always hyping the ease of use and reliability of legal sites, but it's really not that big of a deal. P2P networks aren't exactly difficult to use, and if you do happen to download a bad copy of a song, you just go back and find another to download.

A movie, on the other hand, is what really would benefit from an online store. It takes longer to download a movie than a song, but with a speedy internet connection, it can take as little as 5-10 minutes, sometimes even less. Sure, that's not instant gratification, but it's plenty for most people. The main problem here, however, is reliability. There is a far greater proportion of "bad" copies of movies on P2P networks than music. People have already been shown to be willing to pay for "soft" copies of movies via pay-per-view on cable, so why wouldn't they do the same for high-qualityz, reliable copies from an online movie store? A lot more people watch movies on their computers than all those know-it-all analysts think.

Another important issue is selection. One of the often cited advantages of P2P music is the ability to find old and rare tunes, but that isn't really the case with movies. Rare movies are just as hard to come by as Beatles music is on the iTMS. Instead of 30-sec previews, Apple could show trailers of movies in an online movie store.

I believe that, in the long run, an online movie store has a far greater greater potential revenue stream than a music store. And I don't think it's too late to get the bandwagon started today.

I don't see this happening anytime soon. People want high quality. Audio does not take up that much space, even at CD quality. DVDs are around 5GB. I don't care how fast your connection is you aren't downloading a DVD in 5-10 minutes. Until fiber optics are being used by a large number of people this is not really a solution. I can go to the store in 5-10 minutes and pick up a copy for a little more than the price off a movie store. Plus I can watch it on a big screen from my couch, not just on my 17in monitor. Computers need to be fast enough to make this experience no longer or less gratifying than the current iTMS. I don't think that will be accomplished for another 10 years or so.

[mainstreetmark]

Originally posted by centauratlas
1. There were 1000s of people last weekend who couldn't *get* to a store to get a DVD due to the snowstorms in the north east.

2. You never *have* to burn it to a DVD. You stream it (like iTunes) to your TV directly from your computer. This is what ReplayTV allows between its units and something that Apple will do eventually even if they don't realize it right now.

I agree with you, and disagree with Jobs.

While consumer connection speeds have not increased much in the last 4 years, the availability has skyrocketed, and everyone has a reasonably fast connection. If the servers were fast enough, which Apple's likely already are, you could get an entire DVD-quality movie in like an hour or less, maybe.

And, speaking personally, I would much prefer to NOT drive 20 minutes to blockbuster, pick out a movie, and drive 20 minutes back, watch it, then drive 20 minutes to blockbuster to return the movie, then drive 20 minutes back... that sucks. I'd rather go, "Hey, I'm almost done working for the day, let me pick out a movie"

Further, I'd be willing to pay maybe $20 or more to watch a first-run movie that was currently in theaters. I'd just invite some pals over, and we could watch "Return of the King" without having to sit next to a 40 year old who's dressed up as Gandalf (unless, of course, those are your friends). I hate theaters and I hate blockbuster.

And, since you've come this far, i'd like to see some varying prices on these movies. I don't want to pay $15 for Shrek and also pay $15 for, like, City Slickers 2- the Legend of Curly's Gold.

What would the DRM be? Would the movie expire after 2 views if you just 'rented' it, and could you burn it to dvd if you 'buy' it? Do they realize that there is no such thing as an un-crackable DRM, and if so, will that prevent them from even trying?

[MacSlut]

I've been saying for years...Apple should buy Tivo. Allow for DVD quality movie downloads with an iMedia interface. The files would either play with iMedia or could be transferred to your Tivo unit.

Of course Tivo would seamlessly integrate with iPhoto and play music as well.

Alternatively, iMedia could burn a DVD-R/RW or DVD+R/RW, with limited burns. We'll soon be looking at speeds even greater than 8X for burning and 50 cents for a DVD-R...plus you could always use rewritable media...so the cost of burning is negligible.

I would use it. As it is now I legally download 1-2 hour videos at DVD quality for reviews. It's not that bad of a download. Even at today's bandwidth, a DVD quality movie (I would offer them minus extras) would be quicker to download via iMedia than to Netflix.

One thing Apple could do to improve download speed is have the top sellers be propagated similar to how BitTorrent works.

And of course the iPod hard drives are already in size capacities such that you could take a movie or two with you. They're only going to get bigger.

[evoluzione]

i think it would be a good idea, i was only thinking about this the other day, downloading a movie and streaming it wirelessly through my TiVo so i can watch it on my big tv with good sound etc.

it wouldn't take too long to dl it either. and yeah, i can't always get to a store to buy a dvd, i live in brooklyn and that means a 45 minute subway ride into the extortionately priced stores in manhattan. i'd rather pay a couple of bucks less and download it quicker.

as for the limited viewing idea....look what happened to DIVX.

there's a load of dvds i want to buy, and i almost always buy them from amazon.com, so why not buy them online from an iFlix store? i rent a load from netflix.com and those i really like, i buy. and blank dvds only cost a buck anyway.

ok so you don't get all the packaging etc, but a lot of dvds come with nothing anyway, just a lame chapter sheet, let me print out a pdf instead if i want to.

[old_macpro]

I think everyone is forgetting a key aspect of Quicktime...Quicktime supports move pointers (alias) which allows a MOV file to point to other external files. Why would this be important?

Imagine when you buy a movie, you actually purchase the "controller" movie which points up to 5 external movies. The movie store immediatly starts downloading the first part - which you can begin watching very quickly. In the background, the other parts are being downloaded - which will automatically be used without you even realizing that you have switched from part one to part 2. Once all of the movies are downloaded, QT will realize that you have it all and ask if you want to combine the parts into one movie.

This approach would provide the immediate results users are looking for.

[pgwalsh]

SJ is one smart muddaphucka. I'm still waiting for Indies, but it will come... The only commercial group I really like is U2.. Online music sales and distro. is the way to go.

As for studio's.. It's all going virtual. It'll move more and more in that direction and it'll be cheaper and cheapter to have all the resources at your fingertips.

[arn]

Originally posted by old_macpro
Imagine when you buy a movie, you actually purchase the "controller" movie which points up to 5 external movies. The movie store immediatly starts downloading the first part - which you can begin watching very quickly. In the background, the other parts are being downloaded - which will automatically be used without you even realizing that you have switched from part one to part 2.

I think you fail to realize that bandwidth is the limiting factor.

Downloading 5 simultaneously is really no different than downloading 1 (which would download 5 times faster by itself). It will be about the same speed since the limiting factor will be your own bandwidth.

arn

[mrdeep]

A normal music cd is ~650 mb, but you're download compressed versions of the data so its more like ~65 megs. What would make you think that you'd download entire dvds rather than compressed versions?

If there were to be such an movie store, you wouldn't download 5 gig dvds, at most, you'd be download (at most) 2 gigs for a movie (we're talking about lotr, extended edition here). An "average" move of good quality would be ~700-1000 mb.

I would probably use such a service, it really depends on prices though, but SJ doesn't seem too keen on the idea so this is all moot.

[agreenster]

Man, every time I hear or read Steve he always covers his bases and speaks very intelligently and elequently. No wonder he runs two multi-million dollar successful businesses. Good for him, and good for iTunes.

As far as the iTunes Movie store goes--just wait and see people. Bandwidth will get better (internet 2 Ive heard it called, as well as fatpipe) and demand for online movies may grow. But just like any businessman, demand needs to ramp for investors to see a real reason to provide such a service.