Analyst Believes 3 Million iPhones Sold in First Month

[MacRumors]

One analyst believes that Apple has hit the 3 million mark in iPhones sold in the first month since its debut.

"They are seeing unprecedented demand," says Cote, adding that there appears to be no signs of a let up yet. Cote, a former T-Mobile executive, has been extremely accurate with wireless predictions in the past.

Apple had previously announced they had sold 1 million iPhone 3Gs in the first weekend of the launch but have provided no additional sales figures since that time. The analyst predicts that the demand may be so strong that it could affect Apple's expansion into other countries later this month.

Article Link

[11800506]

I could easily see this as being true.

[ArtOfWarfare]

If that's true... that means they've sold 9 million total now, right?

Do you think Apple will announce when it reaches 10 million total, or just stay quite about those numbers for a few months until they have a regularaly schedueled event where they can say, "Look, 15 million before it's even the end of the year!"

IDK... when's the next press event? Don't they have something in Septembers? (Isn't that where they revealed the aluminum iMac?)

[sjo]

Originally Posted by MacRumors

One analyst believes that Apple has hit the 3 million mark in iPhones sold in the first month since its debut.Apple had previously announced they had sold 1 million iPhone 3Gs in the first weekend of the launch but have provided no additional sales figures since that time.

1m/3d = 333k/d -> 3m/30d = 100k/d, i.e., the demand is quickly drying up? although introduction in new countries will probably provide temporarily new surge in demand...

[rstansby]

Originally Posted by sjo

1m/3d = 333k/d -> 3m/30d = 100k/d, i.e., the demand is quickly drying up? although introduction in new countries will probably provide temporarily new surge in demand...

I think with the hype of the launch it isn't surprising that they sold more in the first few days than any of the following 30 days. I doubt the sales will continue to go down at that rate.

[bigmc6000]

I'd say 100k/day is a decent number but there's no way it's the average. I'd say it was more like 333k/day on the first weekend, 130-170k/day the following week and then a sustained 80-120k/day after that which would put the sales at more like 3.5-4 million. Saying 3 million in the first month means they only sold 2 million in the next 27 days (74k/day) which I think is a gross underestimate since they are still sold out virtually everywhere. The second they get them in stock they are gone - buddy of mine at work just tried to buy one, called 5 AT&T stores and not a single one even had 1 and that was just some random Wednesday! Also, considering Apple's practices they will probably count all the official backorders for the month. Another friend of mine and her husband placed their order about 2 weeks ago and just got them on Friday.

[whooleytoo]

Originally Posted by sjo

1m/3d = 333k/d -> 3m/30d = 100k/d, i.e., the demand is quickly drying up? although introduction in new countries will probably provide temporarily new surge in demand...

These figures are talking about sales, not demand; they're guestimating the number of iPhones sold, which is almost certainly limited by the amount of stock available.

Apple probably had a reasonably large stock available on release day which explains the large initial sales. With those now gone, they're just selling them as fast as they can build them.

[Michael73]

As always, it would be interesting to know the breakdown of US versus OUS sales as well as new AT&T customers switching carriers versus existing AT&T customers and how many of existing iPhone customers are ditching rev1 for rev2?

In my mind many of these questions cut to the question of market penetration both here at home and abroad as well as how good of a job apple is doing at convincing existing iPhone customers that newer hardware is better (as opposed to just upgrading their firmware to v2.0).

Answers to these questions will go a long way to bouying the stock price and keeping analysts bullish on apple's prospects.

[mudbug99]

In my little town with one AT&T store, they told me they sold 55 so far and have cash deposits for another 40 or so, for whenever they happen to get them in. The guy figured that if they had an unlimited supply, they may have sold a couple of hundred by now. Scale this up from there, 3 million actually might seem kind of low. That's just one sample, and may have had some built in sales pitch, but still sounds like its selling well.

[franzmueller]

Great where I live I'm on a pre release " waiting list " ( i was that time nr. 80 ) and after 1 MONTH I'm nr. 61 .... only 19 ridiculous phones has arrived into my town Movistar shop .

In 10 days another 20 or so countries are going to be serviced ... great ( again ) this means I may get one next year ?

By that time I may wait for the 3rd gen. iphone ....

Saludos

[gcmexico]

nice...I think there are still lines at the 5th ave store for the 3g Iphone!

[whooleytoo]

For those trying to get an iPhone - request a white one. Certainly they seem to be in far lesser demand here.

Interesting to see too the 1:10 ratio between iP3G unit sales and app store dollar sales is continuing..

[happydude]

3 million sold . . . 1 million cracked? when is apple going to address/fix this issue?

[twoodcc]

dang, i bet this is true. the iphone is selling like crazy

[megfilmworks]

Originally Posted by happydude

3 million sold . . . 1 million cracked? when is apple going to address/fix this issue?

1% of 3 million is not 1 million.
It's 10,000. I own 5 iPhones and no cracks for me.
And have yet to see one in the wild. Non issue

[jinjo235]

So, thinking about the coming months of continuous iPhone releases take this info into consideration:

1.) Many people are waiting for their contracts to end so that they can get an iPhone without any cancelation fees.

2.) The iPhone is scheduled to be release in over 40 MORE COUNTRIES by the end of this year! (most likely much more)

3.) If Apple comes to an agreement with any carrier in China, the available market goes for iPhone users goes up over a billion people

4.) Apple will continue to release updates to the software that will increase the security, reliability, and portability, which will in turn attract many more business customers.

5.) Developers (as well as Apple), will bring new and astounding applications and abilities to the iPhone furthering it from all other phones in the market.

6.) As the holidays come into a full swing of things, anticipation will grow about special deals, new versions of the iPhone, etc. (which many people are also holding out for)

What do you all think?

I'm saying Apple will release 12 million of just iPhone 3g sales by December 31st.

[alberta-mac-fan]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the minimum amount of phones sold, possibly even much more. Though I don't doubt that keeping the stores in short supply are part of a marketing decision rather then a (complete) lack of supply.

By the way this is my first time posting, but i read these forums all the time. I'm happy to finally be registered.

[TPALTony]

I was out of the country for a month starting the day after the launch, so I didn't do anything about it until today.

I walked into the Apple Store in Short Hills Mall NJ. There were 5 people in line. I was in and out in 30 minutes. The line was constantly between 5 and 10 people though, it was filling as fast as it was emptying.

I guess they have the glitches worked out now because it was a totally painless experience for me, and my phone was working before I left the store. It's syncing now.

It might not be as painless as the first iPhone (I was in line on launch day for that) but it's still a hell of a lot easier than going to a regular cell phone store!

When I was standing in line, they flagged an IRU on my account because I get a corporate discount. I called customer service and had the discount removed (because I really didn't want to go to an AT&T store!) and a minute later, the issue was resolved. Now I'm going back on the website to re-instate my corporate discount.

It was honestly totally painless! Glad I waited a month now.

be well

t

[Rybold]

Originally Posted by TPALTony

I walked into the Apple Store ... There were 5 people in line. I was in and out in 30 minutes. The line was constantly between 5 and 10 people though, it was filling as fast as it was emptying.
Glad I waited a month.
t

Same here. I got mine about ten days ago. The more they sell, the better it is for us because there will be more apps, more developers, and more companies that will integrate it into society (you might be able to download the newspaper at 7 Eleven for example or order your food while standing in a fast food restaurant instead of waiting in line.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by Michael73

As always, it would be interesting to know the breakdown of US versus OUS sales as well as new AT&T customers switching carriers versus existing AT&T customers and how many of existing iPhone customers are ditching rev1 for rev2?

The original Munster exit-poll count which said 425,000 were sold in the US the first weekend, is probably pretty close. The rest of the original "million" were sold overseas and/or were still on a boat from China.

(Paid up carrier orders might count as sales, too, even if not manufactured yet. I see nothing wrong with adding in prepaid units.)

As for previous owners, the exit poll also said about 38% of sales were to people upgrading to the newer model.

The polling was just for the first three days, btw, and only for the USA.

[Shackler]

where do they get these numbers from?
If true 10 million will be an easy task for Apple this year

[fleshman03]

Originally Posted by megfilmworks

1% of 3 million is not 1 million.
It's 10,000. I own 5 iPhones and no cracks for me.
And have yet to see one in the wild. Non issue

LOL - Sorry, I just needed to laugh at that. I've made mistakes like that all too often. But shouldn't it be 30,000?

Originally Posted by Shackler

where do they get these numbers from?
If true 10 million will be an easy task for Apple this year

Simple economics my dear Watson. Lower price to increase demand. Apple plans on make money off the ATT deal and apps, not the phone. (Per se)

[sjo]

Originally Posted by rstansby

I think with the hype of the launch it isn't surprising that they sold more in the first few days than any of the following 30 days. I doubt the sales will continue to go down at that rate.

last year the sales did continue to go down at pretty drastic rate forcing apple eventually to slash iphone price by 1/3. this year they probably can avoid price reductions because they start selling iphones in new markets.

[ThunderBull4]

Originally Posted by megfilmworks

1% of 3 million is not 1 million.
It's 10,000. I own 5 iPhones and no cracks for me.
And have yet to see one in the wild. Non issue

I believe it's 30,000 not 10,000. And why, if I may ask, do you have 5 iPhones?!?

[liveshowonlinec]

lol 5 iphones is crazy