If you go Preferences-> Devices-> and check "Disable automatic syncing of iphones and ipods" it may do the trick, but I don't know.
I find that I either plug the thing in and leave it, in which it really doesn't matter if itunes launches, or if I am sitting at my computer, in which case I probably already have itunes open.
Edit > Find... > "RunOnce" > uncheck all options except for "keys"
When it finds it, choose the key right above RunOnce which is called "Run". That is a list of all the programs that run when windows starts. Find "iTunesHelper" in the right hand pane and delete the entry entirely. That's all there is to it.