iPhone 3GS, Marble Delayed, Tablet Exists?

[funrush]

John Gruber :


WWDC 2009 Predictions

Sunday, 7 June 2009

What I know, don’t know, and know I don’t know about tomorrow’s WWDC announcements. As usual, please, no wagering.

IPHONE 3GS

Everything I wrote about last month in “The Next iPhone” still stands. I expect Apple to announce updated iPhones with significantly faster processors, twice the RAM, and twice the storage. I expected prices to remain the same as the current lineup: $199/299 for 16/32 GB, respectively. The video camera is going to be a major selling point.

One additional tidbit I’ve heard is the new hardware’s code name: iPhone 3GS. I’m not certain that’s what it’ll be officially named, but my hunch is yes. I have no idea what the S stands for.1

The other new tidbit is battery life: 15-20 percent longer than the iPhone 3G.

As for form factor, I believe the 3GS will have the same or very similar dimensions as the 3G; the screen size is unchanged and existing cases might fit the 3GS. I assume that the new models must look different — newer, cooler — in some way, but I don’t know how.

LOWER-PRICED IPHONES

There are pervasive rumors that Apple is also set to announce lower price points for the iPhone. The Financial Times, citing anonymous sources “familiar with the initiative”, reported it as fact.

I believe this is true, and the new price will be $99. But since I expect the new top-of-the-line iPhone 3GS to start at $199, that means the $99 iPhone must be something else. I see two possibilities: (a) a new device, something that is to the iPhone what the iPod Mini was to the original iPod; or (b) the existing 8 GB iPhone 3G, unchanged but reduced in price.

I would wager heavily on (b) — that the new iPhone 3GS models will not replace the 3G, but rather assume the flagship position while the year-old 3G slides down to the second spot in the product lineup. I believe Apple will eventually create an iPhone Mini or Nano or Junior — something that is smaller and thinner, in an array of colors but with fewer features and lower tech specs, at lower prices. And when they do, they will promote it heavily in a major play for raw mobile phone market share.

I don’t think that time is now, though, which is why I believe the imminent $99 iPhone will simply be the existing 3G at a reduced price. I’m not even sure this $99 iPhone will be announced at WWDC — Apple may well wait until the new iPhones are available for sale to announce it. In fact, if I’m right that the $99 iPhone will simply be a reduced-price 3G, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were something Apple sold only through its own stores, and perhaps only for a limited time until their stock of old 3G models is gone.

IPHONE TETHERING

It’s no secret that iPhone OS 3.0 supports tethering: sharing the phone’s 3G internet connection with your computer. What we don’t know yet is how this will work with Apple’s various carrier partners around the world. It’d be nice if it just worked, with no additional charge over the current data plan. But “it’d be nice” seldom happens with phone carriers. So I expect we’ll be charged for this feature; the question is how much.

At a fair price and assuming the feature works well, iPhone tethering could obviate the need for something like Verizon’s MiFi. I look forward to never paying for hotel or airport Wi-Fi service again.

SNOW LEOPARD

The big question with Snow Leopard isn’t with regard to technical details, but its marketing. Starting with version 10.2, previous major updates to Mac OS X have sold for $129, and were marketed almost entirely based on their new features. Apple has explicitly made clear that with Snow Leopard its focus was not on adding new features but rather on improving and optimizing existing ones — shoring up the foundation of the core OS shared by the Mac, iPhone, Apple TV, and future products to be named later. I think this was a great idea. OS X is here for the long haul — it is the foundation of Apple’s entire business for the foreseeable future.

But how do they sell Mac OS X 10.6 to consumers if it doesn’t bring major new features? Here are the options I see:

Sell it for $129, just like previous major updates. Advertise it as faster and better. If it doesn’t sell as well as 10.5 Leopard did, well, so what? Slow uptake would be an irritation for developers who want to ship software that depends on 10.6-specific APIs, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world. And who knows? Apple has never tried selling a full-priced OS update based on something other than new features — it might sell as well or better than 10.5 did. Maybe it’s not true that people only pay for features upgrades.

Sell it for a lower price, say $59.

Sell it for a nominal price, say $19. I think free is out of the question, if only because of Apple’s interpretation of U.S. accounting regulations. They give iPhone owners free OS updates because they use subscription-based accounting for iPhones. They charge iPod Touch owners for the same OS updates, because iPod Touches aren’t accounted for on a subscription basis. The Mac is like the iPod Touch in this regard, so I think a free Snow Leopard isn’t possible.

The risk with options 2 and 3 is that it might make it more difficult for Apple to go back to charging $129 for 10.7 and beyond. But Apple is not Microsoft. OS upgrade revenue is a nice extra for Apple, not a core part of its business.

The wildcard with Snow Leopard would be if Apple were set to unveil some sort of heretofore secret new features, features which they could then use as the basis for an advertising campaign and the regular $129 price. But from everything I’ve heard, Snow Leopard development is winding down — they’re tying off loose ends and fixing bugs.

I have no idea how Apple is going to play this.

MARBLE

The other X-factor is “Marble”, the rumored redesign of the entire OS’s visual appearance. Could that be the secret Snow Leopard “feature”? Six months ago that’s what I was expecting: that from an engineering point of view, Snow Leopard’s changes would be low-level, but that by making everything look all-new, Apple would have an obvious way to sell it to consumers as something worth paying for. If it looks new it is new, from a normal person’s perspective.

But while I am convinced that “Marble” is a real design project at Apple, I no longer believe it is slated for Snow Leopard. A new visual appearance isn’t something Apple can spring on third-party developers at the last moment. If they plan to ship Snow Leopard soon — say, by the end of August — that just isn’t enough time to allow developers to update their software to look good under a new UI theme. (There’s also the problem of creating software that looks good under both the new and old themes.)

So my hunch is no Marble for Snow Leopard — that it’s now a 10.7 thing. But I’d never bet too much money on the side of Apple accommodating the needs of third-party developers.

THE TABLET

I’m completely convinced that the tablet is real. But I am almost just as convinced that it is not ready to be announced. Patience on this one.

[CherryJello]

I've heard this guy is reliable. But am not totally sure.

However I do like his realistic expectations. Too often at this time of the year these forums turn into a frenzy and when what people "expect" to happen doesn't..they get pissed. So I feel that these predictions are spot on.

[InvalidBassist]

The S stands for Sport!

The next iteration with be a 3GR... the R stands for Racing!

[CherryJello]

Originally Posted by InvalidBassist

The S stands for Sport!

The next iteration with be a 3GR... the R stands for Racing!

He said at the very end of the post he thinks the S stands for Speed

[Dizzler]

Who is John Gruber????

[The General]

iPhone ///M3G

[Goona]

No way Snow Leopard is going to be free, it will be the same price. I think there will be features, Apple just won't be heavily focused on them.

[w00master]

Originally Posted by Dizzler

Who is John Gruber????

Gruber is da man. All Apple fans should follow his blog: http://daringfireball.net/

Who is John Gruber?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gruber

w00master

[brian4610]

even though this is hardly official, i'm disappointed in what the iphone announcement might be...

video, and a faster processor as upgraded hardware is hardly a big deal. I know 3.0 is going to be nice, but for me i continue to be disappointed in these iphone announcements....I might be in the minority here, but i was hoping for more (face front camera, alert notification, etc)...All this really is is the iphone catching up to other smart phones that were made in 2005. Sure the processor speed might be different, but the rest of the 'upgrades' have been standard on other phones for years (camera, mms, even face front camera...)

anyway, already bummed out....i was hoping for a home run, i'll have to settle for a stand-up double......

[Goona]

Originally Posted by brian4610

even though this is hardly official, i'm disappointed in what the iphone announcement might be...

video, and a faster processor as upgraded hardware is hardly a big deal. I know 3.0 is going to be nice, but for me i continue to be disappointed in these iphone announcements....I might be in the minority here, but i was hoping for more (face front camera, alert notification, etc)...All this really is is the iphone catching up to other smart phones that were made in 2005. Sure the processor speed might be different, but the rest of the 'upgrades' have been standard on other phones for years (camera, mms, even face front camera...)

anyway, already bummed out....i was hoping for a home run, i'll have to settle for a stand-up double......

Please tell us what else the could put in it?

[Etnies419]

Originally Posted by InvalidBassist

The S stands for Sport!

The next iteration with be a 3GR... the R stands for Racing!

Can I get a 3GL (Luxury)?

[w00master]

Originally Posted by brian4610

even though this is hardly official, i'm disappointed in what the iphone announcement might be...

video, and a faster processor as upgraded hardware is hardly a big deal. I know 3.0 is going to be nice, but for me i continue to be disappointed in these iphone announcements....I might be in the minority here, but i was hoping for more (face front camera, alert notification, etc)...All this really is is the iphone catching up to other smart phones that were made in 2005. Sure the processor speed might be different, but the rest of the 'upgrades' have been standard on other phones for years (camera, mms, even face front camera...)

anyway, already bummed out....i was hoping for a home run, i'll have to settle for a stand-up double......

I guess I'm having a hard time understanding the appeal to a.) front facing camera and b.) video conferencing.

w00master

[elppa]

Originally Posted by Goona

No way Snow Leopard is going to be free.

I think the article is fairly clear on this as well – they did give away 10.1 updates for free at retail (I got one), but they had a lot less users then, and even fewer of those had probably brought 10.0.

Originally Posted by Goona

I think there will be features, Apple just won't be heavily focused on them.

I think the leaks from the beta show features, I doubt there will be any more on top of those though. There can always be surprises though.

[skwoytek]

Originally Posted by Goona

Please tell us what else the could put in it?

Only thing I would want that Gruber doesn't mention is OLED.

Of course Gruber does say "updated iPhones with significantly faster processors, twice the RAM... [and battery life] 15-20 percent longer than the iPhone 3G."

There are only a few ways to accomplish that: OLED, larger battery and/or 17" Macbook Pro battery technology. I'm hoping for OLED. The other question, with Push Notifications being such a big deal on 3.0, is that 15-20 percent with notifications on or off. I'm guessing with APNs on, the battery life will be a wash.

[hefeglass]

3gs type-r

^using a more efficient processor and lower power radio and components may be able to accomplish that on their own...although I am hoping for oled as well..but doubtful

[dissdnt]

Higgens Boys and Gruber?

[skwoytek]

Originally Posted by w00master

I guess I'm having a hard time understanding the appeal to a.) front facing camera and b.) video conferencing.

w00master

There are probably a few thousand people gathered in San Francisco for a week for WWDC that would use mobile iChat to talk to their kids back home. There are actually plenty of situations where a camera that points back at you would be used. But the real question is whether it's worth the higher cost per unit to Apple, yet.

I still say that when we see a front facing camera, we see iChat for Windows. Along with that, iChat with a mobile me account will keep all text chats in sync. So as I go from my Mac to my iPhone, my iChat session looks just like it did on my Mac.

[skwoytek]

Originally Posted by hefeglass

3gs type-r

^using a more efficient processor and lower power radio and components may be able to accomplish that on their own...although I am hoping for oled as well..but doubtful

OLED makes for a very nice screen. It won't make or break sales, but the iPod touch this year will be up against at least one OLED competitor. It would suck to have OLED in the iPod touch but not the iPhone.

[Small White Car]

Originally Posted by CherryJello

I've heard this guy is reliable. But am not totally sure.

He is the most reliable because he simply tells you what he's heard and then lays out the options. It's up to you to decide which is the most likely.

So he's rarely wrong mostly because he refuses to make many actual guesses! He says "I know this one fact, therefore either x, y, or z will have to take place."

It's a refreshing change from many writers who take the little info they have, mix it with guesswork, and present it as the truth.

[brian4610]

Originally Posted by skwoytek

There are probably a few thousand people gathered in San Francisco for a week for WWDC that would use mobile iChat to talk to their kids back home. There are actually plenty of situations where a camera that points back at you would be used. But the real question is whether it's worth the higher cost per unit to Apple, yet.

I still say that when we see a front facing camera, we see iChat for Windows. Along with that, iChat with a mobile me account will keep all text chats in sync. So as I go from my Mac to my iPhone, my iChat session looks just like it did on my Mac.

the ability to call my wife and have her point the phone at my son anytime i wanted is priceless to me....

[hcoteen2008]

I think the naming of the new iPhone will be decided right before they take the stage. They just flip a coin. Kind of reminds me of Family Guy and how Rhode Island got it's name.

[Pooshka]

The title is a tad misleading as if John Gruber were to attend WWDC.

Who the funk is John Gruber anyway???

[elppa]

Originally Posted by Pooshka

The title is a tad misleading as if John Gruber were to attend WWDC.

But he is.

[Pooshka]

Originally Posted by elppa

But he is.

Even if he is, that's not what the post is about.

[MacRumors]

John Gruber articulates what he believes we'll see at tomorrow's keynote. Gruber first reiterates his predictions from before regarding the iPhone update:

I expect Apple to announce updated iPhones with significantly faster processors, twice the RAM, and twice the storage. I expected prices to remain the same as the current lineup: $199/299 for 16/32 GB, respectively. The video camera is going to be a major selling point.

And also reveals that "iPhone 3GS" is the codename for this next gen iPhone. It may or may not carry over to the official brand name and he is not sure what the "S" stands for.
Meanwhile, he offers some speculation about how much Apple might charge for Snow Leopard but does not believe the rumored "Marble" interface will actually make it into this version of Mac OS X:

But while I am convinced that “Marble” is a real design project at Apple, I no longer believe it is slated for Snow Leopard. A new visual appearance isn’t something Apple can spring on third-party developers at the last moment. If they plan to ship Snow Leopard soon — say, by the end of August — that just isn’t enough time to allow developers to update their software to look good under a new UI theme.

Finally, he is convinced the Apple Tablet is real but that we won't see it tomorrow.

Gruber has been know to have some inside knowledge of Apple's plans and his last-minute predictions can be quite accurate. MacRumors will have live coverage of the event at MacRumorsLive.com and we will have our own rumor roundup posted shortly.

Article Link: iPhone 3GS, Marble Delayed, Tablet Exists?