Apple's Q3 2004 Results Webcast

[MacRumors]

Apple will be broadcasting their Q3 2004 financial results at 2:00pm PT/5:00pmET on Wednesday, July 14, 2004.

Please note that comments made during this call may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. For more information on the factors that could influence results, please refer to Apple’s SEC filings.

The quarterly broadcast often includes interesting insight during the Question and Answer session from Steve Jobs and other Apple executives.

[oingoboingo]

Originally Posted by Macrumors

Apple will be broadcasting their Q3 2004 financial results at 2:00pm PT/5:00pmET on Wednesday, July 14, 2004.



The quarterly broadcast often includes interesting insight during the Question and Answer session from Steve Jobs and other Apple executives.

It will be very interesting to hear the investors' take on the recent iMac supply debacle. It will also be worth noting if the new revisions of the PowerMac G5 have resulted in improved demand. I think I remember from the last investor conference call that PowerMac G5 revenues had been 'flattish', or not quite as good as was hoped for.

[Savage Henry]

Yessiree, I think the iMac supply debacle andd the continuing G5 err Supply debacle could feature heavily. Although I am interested to see how much of a tickle the G5 revenues felt after the recent dual 2.5 release.

[dogbyte_13]

I dont get it? they will webcast a financial report but not the keynote??? i love apple but sometimes i just dont get there mentality.

[GetSome681]

Originally Posted by dogbyte_13

I dont get it? they will webcast a financial report but not the keynote??? i love apple but sometimes i just dont get there mentality.

They webcast it to keep people happy who have large sums of money invested in the company. It makes perfect sense.

P.S. - It's 'their'.

[Mantat]

Originally Posted by dogbyte_13

I dont get it? they will webcast a financial report but not the keynote??? i love apple but sometimes i just dont get there mentality.

Because keynote arent important for the investors. Watching Steve talk about the iPod and ITMS for 30mins wont give them any insight of the company future. Financial repports on the other hand are a key tool in an investor technique to evaluate a company. Steve may have a huge ego but he is still at the mercy of the investor.

[Quixcube]

Does it make anyone else nervous that Apple is increasingly seen as a music company in its investors' eyes? In that light, the best thing Apple has going for it right now is a dominant share in the online music market. If they lose that dominance investors who fail to see that Apple is also a profitable computer manufacturer could cause a lot of trouble. Panics aren't usually well thought out, but they always end in a mess.

So does this leave Apple trying to become the next Sony? Quickly becoming a consumer electronics maker with a vanity line of very capable but very expensive computers? I think the days of associating Apple primarily with Macs are over for good. I don't know if this is a bad thing or not, but I hope I can still buy a Mac in 5 years.

[jimsowden]

Anyone else notice Apple stock is on the rise after a week of decline? It has to be related. Anyway, is this just audio, or are they going all out with a video stream? Either way, i'm in.

[Edot]

Originally Posted by dogbyte_13

I dont get it? they will webcast a financial report but not the keynote??? i love apple but sometimes i just dont get there mentality.

I think there is some law about their results being publicly avaliable. They mention it at the beginning of the wecast. It is audio only and requires much less bandwidth than a very popular keynote webcast.

[Freg3000]

Originally Posted by Edot

I think there is some law about their results being publicly avaliable. They mention it at the beginning of the wecast. It is audio only and requires much less bandwidth than a very popular keynote webcast.

I think Reg FD (Regulation Fair Disclosure) forces publicly traded companies to announce events like earnings reports at the same time to everyone so that no one has an advantage in knowing information before others.

[wdlove]

I will miss out on hearing the live webcast. Will probably still be at MacWorld Boston, Where Steve should have visited. It's the customers that make Apple.

I will look forward to hearing the highlights here tomorrow evening.

[BakedBeans]

what time is that in the uk?? anyone know????

[rjwill246]

Originally Posted by AL-FAMOUS

what time is that in the uk?? anyone know????

2200h London

[Mantat]

I dont understand why you all want to listen to it. Its mostly for investor, there wont be any anouncement. They will only talk about sales, inventories, lawsuit, etc...
When asked about the iMac, Steve will simply say whats writen on the website and hint about the new iMac to be awesome.

[BakedBeans]

Originally Posted by rjwill246

2200h London

10 pm wednesday or tuesday?

[Edot]

Originally Posted by AL-FAMOUS

10 pm wednesday or tuesday?

London Time is EDT + 5h or PDT + 8h. So 5pmET would be 10pmET London. You aren't that far away

[rdowns]

Call me a pessimist but I fear Apple has some pretty lousy numbers to report. I hope not for my 575 shares. Seems so because of all the rapid fire Apple announcements today, Airport Express shipping, new displays shgipping, 2.5s shipping, signing Office Depot. Gives Jobs abd Co. something positive to spin.

[~Shard~]

Originally Posted by dogbyte_13

I dont get it? they will webcast a financial report but not the keynote??? i love apple but sometimes i just dont get there mentality.

This is being webcast because it has to do with investors and financial matters, not Jobs blathering on for an hour about the iPod and presenting a lot of Marketing fluff. This is real business. I could go on, but I won't slam you any further since you're just a newbie and all...

I’ll be interested to hear what they have to say, but I am still seeing a future downtrend in Apple’s stock. I shorted 500 shares of Apple when it was at $33 and filled the order at $29, so I made a nice $2000+ USD off that, and am looking at taking a short position yet again depending on the pending announcements... Apple's stock crossed its 50 MA 2 days ago, so I am seeing seeing some potential there...

[Mantat]

Originally Posted by ~Shard~

Apple's stock crossed its 50 MA 2 days ago, so I am seeing seeing some potential there...

Oh god... A technical analyst... I hope that you really understand all the statistical and mathematical notion behind all these average and the risk associated with it!

The first thing I learned from investment was that the current stock value was related to the perception of the buyer/sellers about the future of the company.

So people should decide to buy or sell there stock according to what they think will happen with the profit of the company.

Now enter all the technical analysts who want to predict the stock value by analysing the past value and fluctuation of the stock. So you are using the past expected value to decide of the future value (if you should buy or sell now).

I have to agree that for some market, it may work because you are a small investor in a large market so you can benefit from market anomality such as these. But for Apple, this is a very risky move because Apple sales are hard to predict. Just look at the iPod mini: analysts were saying that it was too expensive and would be a flop... guess they were wrong... Last quarter they complained that the G5 sales werent as good as predicted and thought it was because the market was shrinking. We all know that the sales were down because everyone was waiting for a g5 revision.

I hope you see my point: you are basing you assessement on bad analysis! I personnaly predict a good quarter (compared to others 3rd Q) for Apple and the stock will rise by the end of the week. But as a wise investor, I know that I shouldnt put money on apple because its too unpredictable to my taste.

[~Shard~]

Originally Posted by Mantat

Oh god... A technical analyst... I hope that you really understand all the statistical
and mathematical notion behind all these average and the risk associated with it!

Since I have my Securities course certification and would be licensed to operate as an Investment Broker if I so chose (which I don’t have a desire to, thank God), yes, I do understand all the statistics and mathematical notions behind averages and well as many other indicators, methods, etc. Thanks for the concern though...

Originally Posted by Mantat

The first thing I learned from investment was that the current stock value was related to the perception of the buyer/sellers about the future of the company.

So people should decide to buy or sell there stock according to what they think will happen with the profit of the company.

That is a very valid point, but there are quite a few other complicated factors at play as well. But in the end, no one knows what will happen – otherwise we’d all be millionaires!

Originally Posted by Mantat

Now enter all the technical analysts who want to predict the stock value by analysing the past value and fluctuation of the stock. So you are using the past expected value to decide of the future value (if you should buy or sell now).

So what you recommend I do, predict the price based on future values? Seriously, all these are just tools which are not conclusive or 100% accurate 100% of the time. They’re all just models, guides and methods which should be used as tools and nothing more. Yet, they can provide insight if used correctly. Bid-ask spreads, MACD, momentum – I could go on and on. They’re all just tools, so don’t be too hard on them. For instance, during my last couple of shorts on AAPL I analyzed some very good indicators – on June 28 there was what is termed as an “Engulfing Line”, which is a bearish indicator, indicating a potential end to the current uptrend and is considered to be a short signal. Then on July 2, there was a significant Gap Down. Gaps usually represent important areas of support or resistance. This, to me, indicated that the current level of support had been broken and a resistance level was forming. These analyses could easily have been wrong, but in the end, they weren’t, and I made a nice chunk of change for only a couple weeks’ worth of work. (On this one stock that is, but I won’t get into my other gains... )

Originally Posted by Mantat

I hope you see my point: you are basing you assessement on bad analysis! I personnaly predict a good quarter (compared to others 3rd Q) for Apple and the stock will rise by the end of the week. But as a wise investor, I know that I shouldnt put money on apple because its too unpredictable to my taste.

I don’t see how you can call any of this “bad analysis” myself. It is simply analysis. Time will tell what happens, but if can make the profits I have made with “bad analysis”, then I’d hate to see how much could make with “good analysis”.

Fair enough though – I appreciate your comments. But rest assured, I am fairly experienced when it comes to investing and trading.

[kenaustus]

Depending on what is said today it might be profitable to short Apple. It's in the mid-$29 range and could hit $25 - $27.50 if there are enough people that can't see past tomorrow.

I also believe that an "under $30" price is a good level to look at for buying in the long term. If you look at the next 12 months what do you find?

- new iPod in August
- redesigned G5 iMacs announced August 31st.
- AirportExpress selling well - 80,000+ pre-orders
- A 3 gig PowerMac when IBM solves a few problems
- redesigned G5 PowerBook
- Tiger
- iLife improvements
- Enhancements to iSight
- A possible revision of the iBook?
- "one more thing" from SJ

I know that the last year has been tough, but we've been reasonably informed on the G5 fabrication problems, and I believe that they will be resolved. Some major engineering efforts have been needed, and will continue to be needed, but the potential is very exciting. My guess is that Apple stock will break $40 and maybe come close to $50 in 12 to 18 months if things go reasonablywell.

[Mantat]

My point was more related to the fact that your analysis method (at least the part you talked about) consisted more in looking at the trading data than at the company financial situation.

But considering that you are investing on a very short horizon, I guess trading infos have more weight in the stock value equation than the company financial health.

Personnaly, I prefer to invest for the long run, I never put anything for less than a year, using mainly a Dogs of the dow strategy adapted to the canadian market and removing company with a social ethic that I dont approve. So far, so good, I beat the index and thats all that matters to me.

One concept of technical analysis that I like is the resistance line. Especialy when its tested over a long period of time. I might be wrong but all the test I have tried showed me that buying stock when its below this line will result in a long term (12month) gain, unless the company is in a financial jeopardy. This is a strategy to be used when there is a small crash on the market because of lose of confidence, ex: war vs irak, 911, etc. Out of fear, people sell everything which break the resistance line and a few month later everything is back to normal.

Anyways, I wish you luck but I am pretty sure that Apple stock is going to go up soon...

[Mantat]

Originally Posted by kenaustus

My guess is that Apple stock will break $40 and maybe come close to $50 in 12 to 18 months if things go reasonablywell.

Why should the stock value increase?

As far as I know, Apple doesnt uy back stock fromt he market to increase its value and gives no dividends. So whats the point of investing in Apple? The price fluctuation over the Apple stock is only related to the hype around its products, not gains to the shareholders. Of course, shareholders can sell their shares and make a profit, but who would buy them? Someone who think that its value will go even higher... Seems like speculation to me!

Apple should really start to buy back shares or give dividends other than that, they will never have my money.

Someone correct me if I am wrong!

[~Shard~]

Originally Posted by Mantat

My point was more related to the fact that your analysis method (at least the part you talked about) consisted more in looking at the trading data than at the company financial situation.

But considering that you are investing on a very short horizon, I guess trading infos have more weight in the stock value equation than the company financial health.

Personnaly, I prefer to invest for the long run, I never put anything for less than a year, using mainly a Dogs of the dow strategy adapted to the canadian market and removing company with a social ethic that I dont approve. So far, so good, I beat the index and thats all that matters to me.

One concept of technical analysis that I like is the resistance line. Especialy when its tested over a long period of time. I might be wrong but all the test I have tried showed me that buying stock when its below this line will result in a long term (12month) gain, unless the company is in a financial jeopardy. This is a strategy to be used when there is a small crash on the market because of lose of confidence, ex: war vs irak, 911, etc. Out of fear, people sell everything which break the resistance line and a few month later everything is back to normal.

Anyways, I wish you luck but I am pretty sure that Apple stock is going to go up soon...

And that's cool, and I agree with where you're coming from. I try to diversify, so I have my long term holdnigs as well (real estate, ETFs, misc. funds, etc.) but I also find good gains in playing the trading game as opposed to the investing game - I'm not a day trader by any means, but I'll pop in and out of stocks on a weekly basis, and I keep a close eye on the markets. But you have to do what works best for you.

I'm still not sure if AAPL will decrease in the near future, and you may very well be correct, but we'll just have to see... I may short it for at least a couple days...

[~Shard~]

Originally Posted by kenaustus

My guess is that Apple stock will break $40 and maybe come close to $50 in 12 to 18 months if things go reasonablywell.

I have three simple words for you. NO FREAKIN' WAY. I may not be able to predict the markets but if Apple's stock does, for some reason, hit $50, it will NOT be due to any of the reasoning you've used in your post. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but there are a lot of other factors at play that affect stock prices that have nothing to do with the fact that Apple is releasing a new iMac in September, trust me.