More on Flash Based iPods?

[MacRumors]

News.com provides more hints at an upcoming Flash-based iPod coming from Apple. Flash-based iPods were previously rumored. One analyst even gives an expected price:

Milunovich said a recent meeting with Apple executives left him with the impression that more is in store for Apple, including a flash memory-based iPod that could start selling early next year in the $149 price range, $100 less than Apple currently charges for its 4GB iPod Mini.

[Mac Boy-Canada]

Anyways, this sounds like it is good news; I hope there is more speculation as to the capacity of this device. Anything less than 1GB might not suffice.

[HiRez]

I would definitely pay $150 for flash-based, 1 GB iPod. What I can't decide on is the size. Something really small like a keychain/pack of gum/medallion device would be cool, but then you'd lose the great iPod interface and screen. It seems like the Mini form-factor is about as small as they can go there, and if that's the case I'm not sure the proposition is so attractive (might as well just pony up for a Mini in that case).

[TrenchcoatJedi]

It'll probably be the same iPod mini with a 1-2GB flash drive.

[Porchland]

It's curious that Apple's not rushing this out the door for Christmas, since there's going to be a lot of first-time purchasers in the market. This Christmas is going to be huge for market share as more and more people are falling on either Apple side or the everyone-else side of the player market.

Either Apple couldn't get the flash player to market or they're sufficeintly satisfied with iPod's traction in the market to go with what they've got.

[melgross]

Originally Posted by TrenchcoatJedi

It'll probably be the same iPod mini with a 1-2GB flash drive.

It would surprise me if it were 1 Gig. 2 Gig is out of the question. The price is simply too high.

If they come out with one, it might be as high as 512 Meg.

If Apple is to sew up the market for players, they need one using flash to cost closer to $99 than $149. 512 still holds about 8-9 albums of music.

If Apple could grab 75% of the flash market, they would hold about 85% of the whole market. If they could maintain that, they would get perhaps 85% of the downloads as well. That would cement their hold, if they can maintain their lead in player purchasing psychology.

But, in the rest of the world the iPods don't have that same lead. They have to grab it there as well. It's almost nowhere in China, for example, where cheaper players are growing sales. They have to get in there as well.

[swissmann]

I definitely see a market for this. Everyone who follows the latest craze (tons of people) like the iPod are trying to get one. I bet a lot of those people stop when they see the price tag. Call it iPod something and make it cheaper and it will sell.

[Lancetx]

Anything with less than 1GB of capacity would end up tossed in the drawer and never used (to roughly paraphrase Steve Jobs). I wouldn't be in the market for one as the current 4GB mini is as low as I could ever go, but if Apple truly believes there is a large enough market for an even smaller capacity iPod, then they should go for it.

[zakee00]

meh, i don't like flash players for my purposes, but if apple did it right (like they would), i can see alot of people springing for a flash based iPod with anywhere from 512mb-1gb of space.
on one news post on this subject, it said that apple had been confirmed to buy the flash CONTROLERS. this could mean either a) flash based ipod, or b) new flash controllers for reg. ipods, prolly more flash memory built in.
the new ipod photo has 17 mins of skip protection as opposed to the 25 of the regular ipods (and mini). what is up with that, does anyone know?

edit: another thought, apple just had a music/ipod event. it's getting close to christmas, don't you think they would have released the "flash ipod" there along with the ipod photo/u2 ipod?
strange, i doubt they are making a flash ipod anytime this year.

[MacinDoc]

Originally Posted by melgross

It would surprise me if it were 1 Gig. 2 Gig is out of the question. The price is simply too high.

If they come out with one, it might be as high as 512 Meg.

I agree with you that a Flash-based iPod would have no more than 512 MB of Flash for $149 at this time.

[Koodauw]

But the real question... Will it be compatible with the new announced iPod Socks?

[jdang]

dont listen to the Milunovich. he also said that they wouldnt release a Photo iPod this year. he needs to brush up on this analysis.

jm

[QCassidy352]

If it's less than a gig, SJ is going to look like a fool (after his comments about flash drive players sitting in drawers). The whole point of the ipod, from the start, was the ability to take your entire music collection with you. A 512 MB player would make a mockery of that idea.

[AirUncleP]

Many People. Maaaannnnyyyyy People!, don't need to load their entire music collection on a music player. All they want to do is load created albums for the days run, workout, train trip, ....etc.

$99 iTunes compatible 1G device would jump off the shelfs.

[unsigned]

I really truly believe apple will never make a flash ipod with less than 4gb. They will, however, integrate the iPod experience with other products. If apple is developing iPod software that can operate using flash memory, it's not for a standalone player. It's for a cell phone, or some other application.

There's just no point. The price difference between flash memory and the 4gb mini hard drive is going to evaporate as soon as the holidays are over.

If not price, what is the advantage? The mini's hard drive is already a compact flash form factor. It's not what drives the size of the mini. A flash ipod wouldn't be significantly smaller, or significantly cheaper, but it would have significantly less storage.

An iPod, with less than 4gb, and without any other functionality, just doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense, when the mini's hard drive is going to plummet in price. Hard drives have historically always been cheaper per megabyte than RAM and there is no reason to think that's going to change without some major breakthrough in ram technology.

I'd put the smart money on a 4gb mini at $199 or even $179, and a 6gb mini at $249, at macworld in january.

A better speculation: How will sony's PSP affect the ipod's perceived value? For $195 it plays mp3s (not as well, granted) plays games as good as a ps2, plays movies, has a color screen, has wifi...

[evilgEEk]

Originally Posted by AirUncleP

All they want to do is load created albums for the days run, workout, train trip, ....etc.

I completely agree. There's a huge market for this. I've talked about this to a few of my friends and they all said they would buy a flash iPod as fast as they could because they don't want/need the huge amounts of storage regular/photo/mini iPods provide.

I think it could do very well.

[Elan0204]

Originally Posted by AirUncleP

$99 iTunes compatible 1GB device would jump off the shelfs.

Apple is never going to release a 1GB flash iPod at $99, at least not until 1GB flash cards cost like $20. You'll be lucky if Apple even gives you 512MB for $99, but I could see them charging $149.

I too would love a flash iPod, because I really don't need my whole music collection with me. Plus, I know a bunch of people that want an iPod, but can't afford the $249 and up it costs to get one. A flash iPod priced at $99 would sell like crazy.

[MacinDoc]

Originally Posted by AirUncleP

Many People. Maaaannnnyyyyy People!, don't need to load their entire music collection on a music player. All they want to do is load created albums for the days run, workout, train trip, ....etc.

$99 iTunes compatible 1G device would jump off the shelfs.

It sure would, considering that you pay nearly that much for 1GB of flash without the iPod.

[broken_keyboard]

Steve Jobs was just dissing flash based players in a speech a few days ago. I strongly doubt there will be a Flash based iPod...

[Yvan256]

Originally Posted by Porchland

It's curious that Apple's not rushing this out the door for Christmas, since there's going to be a lot of first-time purchasers in the market. This Christmas is going to be huge for market share as more and more people are falling on either Apple side or the everyone-else side of the player market.

Either Apple couldn't get the flash player to market or they're sufficeintly satisfied with iPod's traction in the market to go with what they've got.

If they use the same casing for the 1GB Flash and the 4GB HardDisk, and can barely keep up with demand with the 4GB (what if it's not the harddisk, but everything else that's in short supply?), that's one reason not to introduce the 1GB right away.

They WILL lose people to "the other side", but really, how many? And of those, how many will buy music on-line and "commit" to another format?

I'm sure they all planned this out and this is the best course of action they can do for now.

[Jaz]

I doubt it.

It just doesn't fit in with what Apple strategy is and also what Jobs says. Apple never competes on price ... never! It killed them in the desktop for many years until the iMac arrived as a compelling price/performance option.

With a consumer good like the iPod, when you move 2 million units a quarter at full price (no rebates, discount etc) why would you want to cannabilise that until there is at least a 20% fall of per quarter. Right now Apple sells more each quarter than the last, with Xmas yet to come.

Maybe in a year I'd guess, when they could do a 4Gb flash version without killing the price. Much better battery life and thinner would be the main selling point.

[Yvan256]

Originally Posted by melgross

It would surprise me if it were 1 Gig. 2 Gig is out of the question. The price is simply too high.

If they come out with one, it might be as high as 512 Meg.

If Apple is to sew up the market for players, they need one using flash to cost closer to $99 than $149. 512 still holds about 8-9 albums of music.

Flash prices hav gone down (a LOT) in the last few months. In fact, I'm quite sure that for Apple, the price difference between 512MB, 1GB and 2GB must be around ~20$US each.

A 512MB iPod would seem weird, especially since a lot of players are 128/256/512MB. Very few are 1GB, and Apple would stand out if only for that.

Of course, there's the nitro at 1.5GB but I think it's HD-based... costs the same as a 4GB mini.

---

iPod mini/flash, 1GB, 129$US. February 2005.

[snahabed]

I cannot see Apple ever doing this.

Since when do they put out low end, cheap stuff? Jobs was just putting flash players down!

[ericdano]

Originally Posted by melgross

It would surprise me if it were 1 Gig. 2 Gig is out of the question. The price is simply too high.

If it was somehow removeable, it would make more sense. I just bought a 2 gig flashcard for $135. If they sold a barebones player with removeable flash, it would be a sweet thing....

[aswitcher]

Originally Posted by Macrumors

News.com provides more hints at an upcoming Flash-based iPod coming from Apple. Flash-based iPods were previously rumored. One analyst even gives an expected price:

Yeah, if its a gig...thats like $220 AUD...about $150 AUD less than the iPod mini which can be found for about $370 AUD...

I hope its out soon and in huge numbers or else we will be facing another 7 month delay fiasco.