Gene Munster Still Believes in the Apple Television Set, Thinks 2016 Launch Likely

[MacRumors]

After numerous failed attempts at predicting Apple's first foray into television sets, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has not yet given up hope that the company will deliver. During an interview at Business Insider's 2014 Ignition Conference earlier this month, Munster made yet another prediction on the rumored Apple technology, citing a two-year wait for Apple's own television set.

Munster regarded this year's prediction as an "annual penance" for being consistently incorrect in guessing the release date for Apple's rumored television set. Instead of the usual one-year prediction Munster has been throwing out the past few years, the analyst looked into the past to further support his two-year suggestion for Apple's next big product.

"Apple takes a long time in-between products. If we look back over the last decade, it's 3-6 years between major products. And so, ultimately the Watch is what hit this year, they're gonna refine that next year along with payments. And then that probably gets us into 2016 as more of a time frame for the actual television."

Though it may seem a bit behind the game for Apple to launch a television set when connected TVs are already becoming ubiquitous and prices continue to decline, Munster looks at the lack of innovation and the true potential of Apple entering the market as significant positives for the company.

​

"So far the connected TV market really hasn't done much, they sell a lot of units but people don't really use the connected TV part unless they're accessing Netflix. So the concept of what the opportunity can really hold around connected TVs hasn't even been tapped, so they haven't missed out on anything."

Business Insider went on to ask Munster about the potential market gains Apple would see if they entered into the television set space. Munster addressed the current plateauing market of around 220 million TVs sold every year, hypothesizing that if Apple captured 10 percent of that market (Apple currently has 20 percent of the smartphone market) it could possibly sell around 22 million TV sets per year. Munster thinks that that market size is "big enough that it could be a 5 or 10 percent addition to the overall size of Apple."

Finally, Munster addressed the price of the possible Apple TV set, thinking it could run around $1,500, or "about double a comparable sized TV." Rumors began swirling around an Apple TV set a few years ago, particularly after Steve Jobs himself hinted at a breakthrough in his authorized biography published shortly after his death in late 2011. Rumors have been mostly quiet in recent months, however, as attention has turned away from a TV set or even a revamped set-top box and toward the imminent launch of the Apple Watch.

Article Link: Gene Munster Still Believes in the Apple Television Set, Thinks 2016 Launch Likely

 

[Z400Racer37]

Can we PLEASE just get a box with gaming and iCloud sync for god's sake??? Seriously, how does Amazon beat us to this??

 

[Boatboy24]

Keep the dream alive!!

 

[bergert]

analyst pffffh

keep repeating it every year - fail.

 

[VeryVito]

Apple would REALLY have to do something to make this work at this point, and frankly, I don't see it happening anymore. They had an excellent window of opportunity in early 2014, but missed it. Since then, Amazon has stepped up to the plate and made the product Apple couldn't.

Amazon FireTV is all most of us wanted in a new Apple TV: Ease of video consumption combined with an app store and a developer SDK so it could continue to grow. Apple, meanwhile, allowed Apple TV to whither and die on the vine.

I'm just mad they made me buy an Android device.

 

[lincolntran]

We need to make the chart a sticky ON MACRUMORS FRONT PAGE so that the whiners will stop complaining about "no new product" at every Apple keynote.

....but wait... they'll find another reason to complain... nvm.

 

[MacGizmo]

How does this douche boat captain continue to get airtime???

 

[Peace]

Me thinks Gene is hitting the eggnog early.

 

[LFCYNWA]

nostradamus

 

[janderson0719]

"Let it go, let it go."

- Elsa

 

[thebeans]

There will not be an Apple Television in 2016 or 2015 or any other year. It is not going to happen. Ever.

 

[0098386]

Can we PLEASE just get a box with gaming and iCloud sync for god's sake??? Seriously, how does Amazon beat us to this??

Us?

 

[elgrecomac]

Lol. You beat me to it!


He must work for Apple....

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

Us?

Ha - revealed that he works at Apple.

Anyways, I agree with Gene Munster that Apple is working on a television set.

It seems to me that the market is completely stagnant and has been for years. If you think getting Amazon or Netflix on a TV is a revolution and that Apple blew it, you're mistaken - you've been able to do that from the moment they existed by just plugging your TV into your computer.

It's the content model that completely sucks. To watch a show I still have to pay ridiculous amounts of money, watch ads, and wait for it to actually air (exception: Netflix's exclusive shows). I could see Netflix, Amazon, or Apple blowing this to bits, but no one has done it yet.

 

[TuffLuffJimmy]

There's no money in the television business... what could an Apple television do that an Xbox or similar cannot do? There's no way Apple could get the large margins they're used to with a TV set.

 

[0098386]

There's no money in the television business... what could an Apple television do that an Xbox or similar cannot do? There's no way Apple could get the large margins they're used to with a TV set.

Let you stream content from the iTunes store for a subscription fee, like Netflix? Other than that I'm all out. My 2 year old TV can stream all those popular services, and older TVs just need a cheap £20 Chromecast. iOS games aren't enthralling enough to create a games console when microconsoles are already struggling.

Maybe it's something further away, like an iMac with a 55" display?

 

[2457282]

I agree with the sentiment already stated before my posting. I want a better Apple TV box. One that has an app store and that does not require a cable subscription to use it. One with an SDK for developers to build apps for and contollers that allow some level of gaming. I dont want a TV. I want a High Def Display in the size of my choice. An integrated TV approach is not what I want. IMHO what I want is actually doable if Apple wanted to do anything. An integrated TV is more complicated and harder to sell.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Personally I wouldn't want "smart" hardware integrated into a TV anyway. If we've learned anything... it's that things change waaay too fast. File formats get added, processors get faster, etc.

I just want a "dumb" screen and then a cheaper box that I could swap out as needed. Screens don't change very often... but playback hardware certainly does.

Apple has had the right idea all these years by making the AppleTV a separate box that you add to whatever TV you happen to have. It's a lower barrier of entry.

Sadly... Apple has let the AppleTV languish for a long time. I hope they're working on new and exciting things.

And I hope one of those things is gaming. Apple has impressive hardware and a popular app store. And they certainly have developer support. All they need is a nice gaming controller and a new SDK. It wouldn't replace an XBox, Playstation or Wii... but it could certainly add some extra value to the AppleTV.

Imagine a $100-150 AppleTV with the iPad's A8X processor and affordable games that you buy right from your couch. Every kid would be shouting for that. And at such a low cost... it would appear in millions of homes.

I believe there's a space between $400 consoles with $60 games... and mobile devices and $1 games. Apple has all the pieces to slide into that space... and maybe even dominate it.

 

[ipedro]

I think we'll see it sooner than 2016. I've always been a believer that Apple's TV will simply be an Apple display with a built in AppleTV chipset. It sounds obvious but all these speculations suggest that Apple is going to reinvent the wheel here. They already ship an AppleTV box and they already ship a display that is due for an update. They simply have to integrate both products and they'll have a TV.

Apple has already got the ball rolling with the introduction of the 5K iMac. I expect that next year, that 5K panel will come to Apple's standalone displays. Dual Thunderbolt cables will be necessary initially for Apple's existing computers to output retina content.

The new AppleTV box will be introduced at an event and the new Apple displays will piggyback on that announcement. Initially, it'll be an added feature for a 27" display whose main purpose is use as a computer display but later in the year, perhaps in time for Christmas, additional sizes will be introduced.

 

[octothorpe8]

I can't see why we'd want a television vs. a box that can plug into any existing TV or projector.

At this point, if they do a TV, it would have to be 5K OLED or something to justify the $$$$ it would likely cost.

 

[Bubba Satori]

I can't see why we'd want a television vs. a box that can plug into any existing TV or projector.

At this point, if they do a TV, it would have to be 5K OLED or something to justify the $$$$ it would likely cost.

Higher margins.
Some folks will pay twice as much for an Apple tv
after it's rolled down a Vogue runway by Jony.

 

[unplugme71]

I'd like the ability for Apple Watch to sync up with my Bluetooth speaker to output Siri's voice. Or do something similar to Amazon Echo.

I'd like the ability to have an App Store on Apple TV.

I'd like the ability to access files in iCloud Drive on my iPhone/iPad.

While I think Apple making an actual TV was a far fetch, I may actually think it'll be possible in the near future since they came out with a watch - something few people wear and yet they see a demand for it. The 4K+ market is new, Apple can make a product in those price points while maintaining a margin. Will it happen, probably not. But it seems more realistic now.

 

[Chrjy]

Is this guy for real!?

If he keeps saying it for the next 50 years it will likely come true at some point!

 

[nutmac]

I frankly think Apple should make both the set top box and a TV set, much like Mac mini and iMac.

Before everyone yells and argue "I am not going to replace my TV every few years", let's not forget that current 3rd generation Apple TV came out almost 3 years ago and it was a small spec bump from 2010 2nd generation model. So in nearly 5 years, Apple TV hardware hasn't changed all that much.

Since Apple's TV set will undoubtably be more expensive than set top box, Apple can put more future proof, beefier processor and larger storage (e.g., A8, 1GB RAM, 32GB storage). Meanwhile, the set top box needs to be more price competitive and use lower cost components (e.g., A6, 512MB RAM, 8GB storage).

OK, specs aside, which don't mean all that much without software that takes advantages of them, why should anyone buy Apple's TV set instead of set top box?

I see Apple's TV as the dashboard for home, always on and ready to keep you and your iOS devices updated. I set an alarm on my phone or watch and if it's in the same room as the TV, turn on the TV to preferred news channel or let Siri update me on my upcoming day.

If I am in the living room (because it senses my nearby Apple Watch or phone), show important notifications on the TV. It will have microphones sensitive enough so that I can talk to it (via Siri) from much greater distance than I would with a phone.

 

[MellowFuzz]

Personally I wouldn't want "smart" hardware integrated into a TV anyway. If we've learned anything... it's that things change waaay too fast. File formats get added, processors get faster, etc.

I just want a "dumb" screen and then a cheaper box that I could swap out as needed. Screens don't change very often... but playback hardware certainly does.

Apple has had the right idea all these years by making the AppleTV a separate box that you add to whatever TV you happen to have. It's a lower barrier of entry.

Sadly... Apple has let the AppleTV languish for a long time. I hope they're working on new and exciting things.

And I hope one of those things is gaming. Apple has impressive hardware and a popular app store. And they certainly have developer support. All they need is a nice gaming controller and a new SDK. It wouldn't replace an XBox, Playstation or Wii... but it could certainly add some extra value to the AppleTV.

Imagine a $100-150 AppleTV with the iPad's A8X processor and affordable games that you buy right from your couch. Every kid would be shouting for that. And at such a low cost... it would appear in millions of homes.

I believe there's a space between $400 consoles with $60 games... and mobile devices and $1 games. Apple has all the pieces to slide into that space... and maybe even dominate it.

Nailed it.