2016 rMB - Skipping Skylake? Possible specs: Kaby Lake, 1TB SSD, 16GB RAM?

[Jobsian]

Just interested speculating here. With the recent iMac Skylake bumps and no rMB in sight it looks almost certain that rMBs will be updated in 2016. By the time they release it, what other tech do you think might we see inside?

I wonder if they'll keep the same chassis or overhaul it along with a 14" model (which seems to be rumored all the time). Would be unusual after just one iteration but adding a 2nd USB-C seems to be an important issue for a lot of people.

Given most other big tech companies already have Skylake chips in their notebooks, might Apple be eyeing Kaby Lake instead? It's a micro-architecture upgrade to Skylake, though still at 14nm (not sure if it's technically a "tock") - the 10nm "tick" Cannonlake has been delayed to late 2017 (some sites suggesting 2018). Anyway I'd like to see any performance boost on these machines!

I'd also hope to see a 1TB SSD and 16GB RAM option but that's pure conjecture - anyone know if dense enough modules would be available next year?


I've been holding off buying the rMB (tempting as it is) to wait for a big enough upgrade to justify replacing my Air, can't wait!

 

[SteveJUAE]

This is the trouble playing the waiting game, too much speculation and wishes not enough hands on time

If you can justify/afford a rMB then buy else you are on a rubber band of future releases with an option/wish list that gets in the way of actual enjoyment.

Just interested speculating here. With the recent iMac Skylake bumps and no rMB in sight it looks almost certain that rMBs will be updated in 2016. By the time they release it, what other tech do you think might we see inside?

I wonder if they'll keep the same chassis or overhaul it along with a 14" model (which seems to be rumored all the time). Would be an unusual after just one iteration but adding a 2nd USB-C seems to be an important issue for a lot of people.

Given most other big tech companies already have Skylake chips in their notebooks, might Apple be eyeing Kaby Lake instead? It's a micro-architecture upgrade to Skylake, though still at 14nm (not sure if it's technically a "tock") - the 10nm "tick" Cannonlake has been delayed to late 2017 (some sites suggesting 2018). Anyway I'd like to see any performance boost on these machines!

I'd also hope to see a 1TB SSD and 16GB RAM option but that's pure conjecture - anyone know if dense enough modules would be available next year?


I've been holding off buying the rMB (tempting as it is) to wait for a big enough upgrade to justify replacing my '12 Air, can't wait!

 

[fanta88]

KL is slated for Q3/Q4 2016 as far as I know, so unless the MacBook update is pushed to late 2016, it won't be Kaby Lake. In any case, Apple tends not to be the first out of the gate to use new processors, and with good reason: they are very invested in optimizing their OS and making sure it works synergistically with new tech and that takes time.

Likewise, I can't see an upgrade to 16GB RAM. I think 8GB is fine for what the MacBook is right now.

 

[Jobsian]

In any case, Apple tends not to be the first out of the gate to use new processors, and with good reason: they are very invested in optimizing their OS and making sure it works synergistically with new tech and that takes time.

True though not always, eg original Macbook Air where not only were they the first, had a customised version of the chip built for them.

And to the poster above, I get "actual" enjoyment speculating while waiting for a more powerful rMB

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

I think it will stay with the same configuration, but may have higher BTO options.

I think the rev B will be a features upgrade in the form of TB3 and Skylake. Which is good enough for me.

 

[pmouritz]

I don't think there will be added any ports then on the current model, maybe they won't ever add more ports. But I think there will definitely be a revised version with Skylake processors next year. It would simply be too long to wait for Kaby Lake and would not be very competitive.
Honestly I don't think that Apple will change the BTO options either (except for perhaps the frequencies of the processors). According to the Skylake leaks the base-model rMB with Skylake will perform equally to the current 1.2 GHz model, except for the integrated graphics which will get a solid speed bump.

 

[zhenya]

I think that so long as Intel does not suffer further delays, that the entire Macbook lineup will be refreshed in late winter or early spring. The Macbook Pros will see the biggest physical changes, being brought into the same design language as the MacBooks, maybe with color options, maybe not, losing up to 1/2lb in weight. I think the Macbook will be updated to Skylake but keep everything else essentially the same; there's nothing else it really needs right now. The power boost and ability to better drive modern displays will be enough. Finally, I think that there is a chance that there will be a 14" Macbook with at least 2 usb-c ports, and possibly a 15w processor which will be the 'retina Macbook Air' that everyone has wanted, and it will come in at around 2.5lbs.

 

[shaown]

If you can justify/afford a rMB then buy else you are on a rubber band of future releases with an option/wish list that gets in the way of actual enjoyment.

I can justify/afford, except for one gap. High Quality external display support. CPU speed, price, RAM, disk space are all fine otherwise. So hoping to get a refresh with a USB-C TB3 port.
-Shaown

 

[Admiral]

On Skylake, doesn't Thunderbolt 3 require an additional chipset (Alpine Ridge) on the motherboard? The Retina MacBook has a very small logic board, which is both (i) tiny and (ii) full up. Where is Alpine Ridge going to go? Also, I have heard that the Alpine Ridge chipset is likely to consume significant amounts of power, meaning lower battery life and greater heat to dissipate. I wouldn't count on Thunderbolt 3 coming in a Skylake refresh of this Retina MacBook. Nor would I count on it coming in a "Kaby Lake" refresh. That pushes us out to 2017 when TB3 will be built into Cannonlake if we're lucky.

The best we can look forward to is Kaby Lake having USB 3.1, a 10GB connection. Is that enough? That bandwidth is sufficient for my Thunderbolt 1 peripherals and performs very well. 40GB would be awesome for sure, but we have to be realistic.

I, too, am hot to get my hands on a Retina MacBook to solve all my problems. But I'm sanguine about when.

I do think TB3 will be in MacBook Pros Real Soon Now™. I may even plump for one of them, although I gotta tell you, travelling with the Retina MacBook is like a dream.

 

[xmichaelp]

I wonder if they'll keep the same chassis or overhaul it along with a 14" model (which seems to be rumored all the time).

A 14" model has never been rumored. It's purely an invention of wishful thinking from macrumors users. Don't expect it.

The best we can look forward to is Kaby Lake having USB 3.1, a 10GB connection. Is that enough? That bandwidth is sufficient for my Thunderbolt 1 peripherals and performs very well. 40GB would be awesome for sure, but we have to be realistic.

Kaby Lake will have USB 3.1 built in. It's a guarantee. Thunderbolt may not come to the MacBook though.

 

[Jobsian]

Well, this looks more likely now. They're saving their notebook upgrades because they're gonna blow our socks off.

 

[ZipZap]

Well, this looks more likely now. They're saving their notebook upgrades because they're gonna blow our socks off.

Or not.

 

[noobinator]

Naw, we will get skylake just as kaby lake comes out. Tis the apple way.

 

[oneMadRssn]

Since Kaby Lake is the "tock" version to Skylake, I don't think there would be much OS optimization needed. Meaning, if they have a version already optimized for Skylike internally, it will be just as good for Kaby Lake.

According to the leaked Intel roadmaps, the Y-series of the processors will launch first. So if those are out in Q3 2016, we could see an rMB update prior to holiday shopping.

 

[xmichaelp]

Well, this looks more likely now. They're saving their notebook upgrades because they're gonna blow our socks off.

It doesn't look any more likely. Has the machine even been out a year? Usually upgrades are annual.

It will get the new processors and that's it. Maybe faster SSDs and a price cut.

I hope they make a 128GB model for 999 for people who don't need 256GB. It makes no sense that the MBP starts with less storage than the MacBook.

 

[5097842]

I don't need one so I can afford to wait. I'd like the speed and power improvements of Skylake, along with (at least) a 720p Facetime camera. Otherwise I was impressed for a first gen product. The MacBook Air was ahead of its time, so IMHO it took a few generations to optimize. For what it is, I think the rMB is almost there.

 

[splitpea]

In an era where consumers are doing their computing on tablets... When laptop users are power users and developers... When development is increasingly done in virtual machines - often multiple open at once... When you can get a Windows laptop with 64GB of RAM... I don't care if base is 2GB but the next top of the line Mac laptop damn well better have a 32GB option.

 

[justin216]

We'll see a refresh in April or May -- so Skylake, almost certainly.

There were those recent leaks out of the Mac OS X Server installer reflecting an "Early 2016" model. On top of that, most of their laptops have historically been revved every 8-12 months. The only time we've had delay in the notebook line is when the parts necessary for the rev aren't readily available from Intel/AMD/nVidia/etc. In this case, the parts are available.

Now, there has been a time or two where a new model identifier has leaked but the product never came to pass -- so that's certainly possible, but I'd throw it into the "unlikely" category. There have been far more leaks come to pass, than those to fail, with regards to model identifiers.

I expect we'll just get a press release sometime in the next 30-60 days to cover the update, like they did with the last rMBP 15 refresh. If all they change is the SoC, it's exceedingly unlikely they'd wait for a regular media event.

 

[Queen6]

As a current owner of the rMB, I will likely wait on Kaby Lake, as for me the biggest differentiator will be TB3 on chip. Skylake will offer a decent bump on the GPU, little on the CPU, power management remains to be seen. I would really need to see something tangible to pull the trigger on a Skylake rMB as the current model is in fact a very good product.

I guess my only caveat is, if I decide to drop the MacBook Pro in entirety, then year on year updates of the Retina MacBook makes sense, with remote access to a desktop solution for the heavy lifting.

Q-6

 

[5097842]

In an era where consumers are doing their computing on tablets... When laptop users are power users and developers... When development is increasingly done in virtual machines - often multiple open at once... When you can get a Windows laptop with 64GB of RAM... I don't care if base is 2GB but the next top of the line Mac laptop damn well better have a 32GB option.

As far as I remember, Apple always uses Intel's latest chipset when going to the latest processor. So as long as the Intel chipset supports it, you'd be able to add the memory. I don't know of any case where Apple artificially limited the memory supported by the Intel chipset. What they offer on the BTO store may be less though.

The current MBPs are odd because they stuck with Haswell only a month or so before Broadwell was available. That's why I skipped this years upgrade and am waiting on Skylake.

 

[splitpea]

As far as I remember, Apple always uses Intel's latest chipset when going to the latest processor. So as long as the Intel chipset supports it, you'd be able to add the memory. I don't know of any case where Apple artificially limited the memory supported by the Intel chipset. What they offer on the BTO store may be less though.

My (possibly entirely inaccurate) recollection was that recently the memory max has been lower than what the chipset supports because Apple only makes room in the enclosure for a certain number of memory modules, and until they move to DDR4, which is more compact, they can't fit any more than 16GB in there.

 

[toddzrx]

We'll see a refresh in April or May -- so Skylake, almost certainly.

There were those recent leaks out of the Mac OS X Server installer reflecting an "Early 2016" model. On top of that, most of their laptops have historically been revved every 8-12 months. The only time we've had delay in the notebook line is when the parts necessary for the rev aren't readily available from Intel/AMD/nVidia/etc. In this case, the parts are available.

Now, there has been a time or two where a new model identifier has leaked but the product never came to pass -- so that's certainly possible, but I'd throw it into the "unlikely" category. There have been far more leaks come to pass, than those to fail, with regards to model identifiers.

I expect we'll just get a press release sometime in the next 30-60 days to cover the update, like they did with the last rMBP 15 refresh. If all they change is the SoC, it's exceedingly unlikely they'd wait for a regular media event.

Good points all, and some sanity in this thread of ill-informed wishful thinking.

Purely based on history, Apple will not change the 12" MB in gen 2, to include not adding an additional USB-C port. That would actually require significant internal changes which Apple is loathe to do on their computer lines. I expect the processor upgrade to Skylake and more storage options, including a base option of 128GB (and maybe 4GB RAM), along with a $100 price cut so that they can start the line at $999 and show the 11" MBA the door. Given the recent 9to5Mac article citing an early 2016 MacBook, this release should happen by the end of April, again based on Apple history.

Now, that said, I speculate that if Apple wants to EOL the 13" Air as well, they'll have to release a 13 or 14" MacBook. Whether or not this has a 5W or 15W processor is anyone's guess, but the 5W would be required if Apple wants to keep it as slim (proportionately) as the 12" MacBook is now by eliminating the need for a fan.

Beyond that, I think Apple's entire computer lineup is getting pretty stale and just about every model other than the iMac line is begging for updates or redesigns. Processor power is not going to see any breakthroughs for a while; Intel's 5-10% performance improvements will continue for the next several years, especially now that they are on a tick-tock-tock cycle.

And that's fine. I think USB-C is the single largest performance enhancement of the next couple of years. It'll be nice to not have to deal with several different types of ports on a computer: just find an empty one and plug it in, whether it's a charging cable, video output to an external monitor, a thumb drive, or whatever. It'd also be nice to see retina/4K/5K screens across the entire range of Apple products, and quite frankly, bin the "Retina" and "Air" monikers (already done with the current MacBook). I'm cautiously optimistic about the next couple of months, including WWDC, to see what Apple has in store.

 

[Admiral]

And that's fine. I think USB-C is the single largest performance enhancement of the next couple of years. It'll be nice to not have to deal with several different types of ports on a computer: just find an empty one and plug it in, whether it's a charging cable, video output to an external monitor, a thumb drive, or whatever.

Now instead of dealing with several different types of ports, we'll get to deal with several different types of cables (USB 2.0 charging cable, USB 3.1 Gen 1 charging/data cable, USB 3.1 Gen 2 charging/data cable, Thunderbolt 3 cable), all of which will look more or less the same. Yippee.

 

[5097842]

My (possibly entirely inaccurate) recollection was that recently the memory max has been lower than what the chipset supports because Apple only makes room in the enclosure for a certain number of memory modules, and until they move to DDR4, which is more compact, they can't fit any more than 16GB in there.

My bad - I forgot that we were talking about Apple laptops, which you can't upgrade anyway except BTO. And those are limited by Apple. Doesn't seem like that long ago where we could upgrade Ram and Storage on laptops.

My 2014 has 16GB, which was enough when I purchased it. I'd like to get the 2016 with 32GB/1TB for the same reason as you. It would be nice to have upgradability after the purchase, at least on Pro machines, but I don't see a return to that unfortunately.

 

[sober2ndthought]

Just interested speculating here. With the recent iMac Skylake bumps and no rMB in sight it looks almost certain that rMBs will be updated in 2016. By the time they release it, what other tech do you think might we see inside?

I wonder if they'll keep the same chassis or overhaul it along with a 14" model (which seems to be rumored all the time). Would be unusual after just one iteration but adding a 2nd USB-C seems to be an important issue for a lot of people.

Given most other big tech companies already have Skylake chips in their notebooks, might Apple be eyeing Kaby Lake instead? It's a micro-architecture upgrade to Skylake, though still at 14nm (not sure if it's technically a "tock") - the 10nm "tick" Cannonlake has been delayed to late 2017 (some sites suggesting 2018). Anyway I'd like to see any performance boost on these machines!

I'd also hope to see a 1TB SSD and 16GB RAM option but that's pure conjecture - anyone know if dense enough modules would be available next year?


I've been holding off buying the rMB (tempting as it is) to wait for a big enough upgrade to justify replacing my Air, can't wait!

Nah Apple will just give us Skylake, we can wait till Cannonlake to get Kaby Lake.