I'd say price points. I hope they have learnt their lesson of putting the price up too high, though they may well do the same, cream off the 3G fanatics, then price drop for Back to school / Christmas.
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3G iPhone preview at WWDC, Release July 11 - Who, When Where, What, Why & how much
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I'd say price points. I hope they have learnt their lesson of putting the price up too high, though they may well do the same, cream off the 3G fanatics, then price drop for Back to school / Christmas.
I'm not sure why people aren't noticing this trend. When Apple says something will ship in a certain month or year, they usually mean they'll do it at the last possible minute. When they say Time Capsule ships in February, they ship them on the 29th. When they say iPhone arrives in June, it comes right at the end of the month. When they say 3G iPhone in 2008 they definitely, 100% do not mean that it will be out before people get the best reason to buy the first generation yet.
Think about it, why on earth would Apple release a new iPhone when the old iPhone is just about to get a crapload of new functionality which will drive sales through the roof?
Think about it, why on earth would Apple release a new iPhone when the old iPhone is just about to get a crapload of new functionality which will drive sales through the roof?
You are confusing months with years.
When Apple states something is coming out in a particular month, that's what they're aiming for. But what with the vagaries of software development it sometimes slips a week or two. That's pretty good. The Leopard delay was an obvious painful exception and was due to the fact Apple did not have enough OS engineers to do it and the iPhone OS.
Apple gave an estimate of late 2008. That was to hedge their bets as at the time Jobs said that, the two potential 3G chipsets they could use had not been officially announced nor, their shipping timeline.
As it happens, both chips are available now for sampling and ramp up of manufacturing is targetted at Q2, (that's what i know, i bet Apple has a more accurate date).
Apple knows it's hurting for sales in certain markets because it doesn't have 3G. It's not going to hold off on delivering that, just cos they've got a big software bump. 3G is coming as soon as they can humanly deliver it! END OF.
M.
1) Apple has a nice big conference coming in June with developers, the world's press, lay consumers - all watching, listening, getting out their wallets. It can release on its own turf, to an anniversary of a successful v1.0 iPhone.
2) You're missing part of the reason of this thread - we're looking at the earliest feasibility of an assembled 3G iPhone, then looking at clues for component orders, assemblage, and shipping of 3G iPhones etc.
By your logic, it'd come out the last work day of December, completely missing the peak of Christmas sales. So you'd then have to back-track, using the logic that they'd do it earlier so they'd get peak sales. So why not take that further, and say they'd release when they can, before peak shopping times (in this year, pre-back to school, pre-Christmas sales for example).
And maybe do it at a time when they have lots of Apple developers and the press there. And maybe on an anniversary for the product. Maybe as soon as they can like they did the SDK. When's the SDK go from beta to full SDk again?
3) The last part hurts me. You're saying that Apple won't release a new iPhone because the old one has sustained functionality.
That's akin to saying that pre-Leopard release that Apple wouldn't release the MacBook Air/new MBPs, because the old MacBooks are about to get a lot more functionality from the new Leopard release.
Apple will release an update before people's contracts run out from the start, they'll want the Japanese, Europe market on board asap. They want 10 million. People are to an extent aware of market cycles on phones. A year is a long time (Apple has 1 iPhone, not a proper range of handsets.)
toute suite, and the tooter the sweeter.
More information in a bit when i've edited the text down
Edit:
As understood previously - Intel's behind in the game, but things hot up in 2009.
http://www.appleinsider.com/article..._of_apples_iphone_eventually_going_intel.html
Moorestown is the chip for a future iPhone, but the telling quote is this:
last fall as executives for the chipmaker flaunted an unnamed Moorestown processor, describing it as the "chip the iPhone would have wanted."
So that's the chip Apple would have wanted in 2007, available in 2009.
(The future = bottom of x axis in the picture, hence Smartphone being big market and in the future, in 2nd gen "Moorestown/Future"...)
Right. Happily Infineon and Broadcomm R&D amongst others, have had more time to tinker and currently trounce Intel Atom chip power usage.
I'll trawl to see if there's anything about dates for 3G iPhone shipping June, but ain't seen anything recently...
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Thank you. I 100% agree with this post.
Apple want to make as much money from the iPhone as possible. The 2.0 update will boost sales of the phone through the roof. All from first time iPhone purchasers.
When a 3G version is released, sales will once again get a huge boost. Many from first time iPhone purchasers, but also many from people who already own an iPhone (including those who bought their first iPhone after the 2.0 update).
If they released the 3G iPhone at the same time as the 2.0 update, they'd cost themselves quite a bit of money. It's not like they're losing money by not having 3G compatibility and release in some foreign markets right now. An extra 5 or 6 months wait in those territories won't drive consumers away. They'll still be there in November.
And to those saying "Apple will get us a 3G iPhone the moment it is physically possible," you are kidding yourselves.
Apple could have given us a 3G iPhone on June 29, 2007.
They're losing potential sales through not having 3G i'd wager. I don't think now is the time for Apple to sit on its laurels. The consumers will still be there in November. So will the general release of 3G SoC to other handset makers. By then, it's estimated you'll also have 4th generation touchscreen Sybian Nokia phones for example.
I think it's fair to ask a date if you don't think it's late June or thereabouts. It seems you're saying September?
Not when it's physically possible (Ooh, the N95 - how nice to see you. Made it to the US yet?) I myself am hedging on saying Apple will give us 3G when it's realistic.
Apple could have given us 3G already. And for sound reasons, they didn't. That given reason (power consumption) is now addressed through the current 3G chips. That power efficiency is there, to rival the current iPhone.
Those chips are producing in quantity. They're ready to be put in devices for shipping come late 2Q or thereabouts.
You're saying that Apple would have the relevant hardware ready months and then sit on it for 5 months?
What's that Engadget? http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/246966759/
WWDC ~June 8th. Add FCC time after that, and it's shipped.
Now we could all be wrong - we've seen Apple take it's sweet ^*(^$ %^^ing time with chipset/CPU upgrades on both Mac Pro and laptop lines. I'd imagine that Apple would want to ship for the back to school and Christmas time, right?
Apple wouldn't DARE announce a 3G iPhone for the future in June. Talk about cannibalizing sales...
My bet is an announcement mid-August to early September (around the time of the iPod Touch announcement) with a release in November.
I'm not saying that they're just sitting on completed hardware. I'm saying they haven't put an incredible amount of effort into getting 3G in the iPhone yet like a lot of you are assuming. It won't be hard for them to just pop a 3G chip in the iPhone and ship it when the time comes.
My bet is an announcement mid-August to early September (around the time of the iPod Touch announcement) with a release in November.
I'm not saying that they're just sitting on completed hardware. I'm saying they haven't put an incredible amount of effort into getting 3G in the iPhone yet like a lot of you are assuming. It won't be hard for them to just pop a 3G chip in the iPhone and ship it when the time comes.
If they had a 3G iPhone ready - and announced it, and then a user buys the 3G iPhone instead of the most recent one, how is that "cannabilising sales"? Apple has the sale. Can you explain what you mean by cannabilising in this context?
And neither are we. They ain't doing the R&D on the 3G chip. As you say - "It won't be hard for them to just pop a 3G chip in the iPhone and ship it when the time comes."
Apple's said it's been waiting for a decent 3G chip, before it puts one in. That chips here. All we're saying. It's being produced, being shipped. We're just disagreeing on whether the time is nearer June or nearer November.
Does Apple have anything to gain in waiting for other handset manufacturers to catch up? Wouldn't they want to keep that multi-year lead ahead of other handset producers?
Why then?
I said that if they ANNOUNCE it in June and release it later, they'd cannibalize sales significantly. As most are speculating, they'd have to gain FCC approval before releasing the handset. Apparently this is about a 2 month process, and is public record. Therefore, they'd have to submit it for FCC approval pretty soon if they want to release it in June. They'd make an official announcement about it so some kid reading through the FCC website wouldn't be the first to get the news out about a new iPhone. With the 2.0 update coming in June, why have one marketing event and sales increase when you can have two?
Apple doesn't have a multi-year lead in terms of Internet capability. They're behind most smartphones, in terms of 3G capability at least. The reason the iPhone is so far ahead of everything else out there is the GUI, and that's not going to change. An August/September announcement and November release makes the most sense, because sales will inevitably slow down between the 3G announcement and release. Why not have that slowdown when you expect sales to be a bit sluggish anyway, and the sales boost at the time most money is spent on consumer goods all year?
That doesn't mean the iPhone will use that chip.
Their comment is as useful as the other pictures in that PowerPoint slide. Ever make one of those for business? I've made hundreds. You grab whatever pictures look cool on the page.
And look closer. They say the chip is good for "Premium Smartphones", and then they show the iPhone as just a "Smartphone".
I guess on the flipside they might reckon having 2 months of sales of lower level is worth it (run down the stock, sell off refurb/ reduced price etc) for the chance to have 2 months of build up?
They're going to lose some sales whenever the FCC news hits, unless they can have a really small FCC releace to shipping time period.
I take your point about having 2 events. The flipside of that is having a *huge* event. It'd make more sense if you wanted to have a softer release of a 3G iPhone - use the 1st version to iron out the bumps in terms of the Application store, SDK etc, then have a solid line up ready for a smoother new iPhone release.
But doesn't Apple risk losing it's key selling points. I totally agree Apple is several years ahead in terms of OS - but that is a deeper thing, and sometimes cosmetic views can deceive consumers.
I'd say that Apple has the lead in terms of accessibility to the internet, but not the speed (by the metrics, the internet data usage of the iPhone is much higher than most other handsets).
Wouldn't Apple want the chance to cement in the public's view, that the iPhone is amazing, and it's new version has some great new updates?
If the GUI isn't going to improve much more, and there will soon be lots of touchscreen rivals, why not push further, and get the brand out there - so that user prerequisites, expectations, have been increased to not only touch screen, but music store (ipod capabilities, iTunes like app) and also Application store. By getting people hooked/aware of the apps out there by June, it'd weaken other handset manufacturers key selling points.
Having moved on from the GUI, and move to wanting/automatically making a prerequisite of rivals to have not only touch screen, but also be a rival in terms of music, and in terms of games, and applications -
The SDK talk seemed to show that the iPhone has so much potential to kick ass in many new areas (Games, business and non business apps).
However, i'll admit, the above doesn't necessarily need a 3G model to push it through. One problem would be, that if you did have a spike in sales come June time, then you'd have more people kicking themselves for buying just before a hardware upgrade came (5Mpixel cam with video, 3G, better battery life etc). If you launch both, you don't have that problem. So that'd mean potentially as you say, an FCC Apple announcement ~April to give 2 months so they're on sale Come the end of the keynote at WWDC.
If you announce in June, you can release August, before back to school? If the sales (the phone, and if it's not hacked, the monthly slice from the network) are spread out financially over a length of time, then financially the sooner the you've got customers, the better, no?
I guess we'll see
Fun to spar over it - hope you don't mind my slightly opposing view on timings - it's all conjecture from my side hehe
The slide is painful I agree! - Intel's got some work to do, but I don't doubt it'll try to muscle in on the larger MID/ tablet market with their new chips come 2009. The labelling is dodgy too - might make more sense after hearing the presentation, who knows.
They're going to lose some sales whenever the FCC news hits, unless they can have a really small FCC releace to shipping time period.
I take your point about having 2 events. The flipside of that is having a *huge* event. It'd make more sense if you wanted to have a softer release of a 3G iPhone - use the 1st version to iron out the bumps in terms of the Application store, SDK etc, then have a solid line up ready for a smoother new iPhone release.
But doesn't Apple risk losing it's key selling points. I totally agree Apple is several years ahead in terms of OS - but that is a deeper thing, and sometimes cosmetic views can deceive consumers.
I'd say that Apple has the lead in terms of accessibility to the internet, but not the speed (by the metrics, the internet data usage of the iPhone is much higher than most other handsets).
Wouldn't Apple want the chance to cement in the public's view, that the iPhone is amazing, and it's new version has some great new updates?
If the GUI isn't going to improve much more, and there will soon be lots of touchscreen rivals, why not push further, and get the brand out there - so that user prerequisites, expectations, have been increased to not only touch screen, but music store (ipod capabilities, iTunes like app) and also Application store. By getting people hooked/aware of the apps out there by June, it'd weaken other handset manufacturers key selling points.
Having moved on from the GUI, and move to wanting/automatically making a prerequisite of rivals to have not only touch screen, but also be a rival in terms of music, and in terms of games, and applications -
The SDK talk seemed to show that the iPhone has so much potential to kick ass in many new areas (Games, business and non business apps).
However, i'll admit, the above doesn't necessarily need a 3G model to push it through. One problem would be, that if you did have a spike in sales come June time, then you'd have more people kicking themselves for buying just before a hardware upgrade came (5Mpixel cam with video, 3G, better battery life etc). If you launch both, you don't have that problem. So that'd mean potentially as you say, an FCC Apple announcement ~April to give 2 months so they're on sale Come the end of the keynote at WWDC.
If you announce in June, you can release August, before back to school? If the sales (the phone, and if it's not hacked, the monthly slice from the network) are spread out financially over a length of time, then financially the sooner the you've got customers, the better, no?
I guess we'll see
Fun to spar over it - hope you don't mind my slightly opposing view on timings - it's all conjecture from my side heheThe slide is painful I agree! - Intel's got some work to do, but I don't doubt it'll try to muscle in on the larger MID/ tablet market with their new chips come 2009. The labelling is dodgy too - might make more sense after hearing the presentation, who knows.
Sorry - No Sale Without 3G
Okay, so today was the day I went down to the local ATT store today with the intent of buying an iPhone. No more waiting...just do it! Got to admit though, that this thread was in the back of my mind as I drove down there.
Walked into the store and right up to the demos on display. Still liked the way it felt in my hand. Still liked the nifty user interface. Things were looking good. Hmmm, the demo was running on EDGE. I'd never tried one of these without the WiFi so, with all the stuff I've read in this forum about EDGE v 3G, let's give it a try...
So I tried loading up CNN. After waiting and watching the iPhone try to load for 4 minutes, the phone went dark. Never did load the front page to CNN. Hey, there's a bookmark here for Yahoo, let's try that! 4 minutes later, dark phone - never did get to Yahoo. Tried to load eWeek...took a little nap...woke up to the same result. Called over a sales guy, told him my experience, he suggested we back out of Safari and try something on YouTube. Okay, let's load a list of today's most viewed...salesman goes "that's way too much for an EDGE connection" - turns out he was right about that. Salesman calls more senior sales guy over, who looks at demo phone and tells us we should turn the WiFi back on. When I mention web surfing with EDGE, he tells me to stick to phone calls when there's no WiFi. Youch! I thanked both sales reps for their time and suggested they call me when the 3G model comes out...NO SALE!!!
Your mileage may vary depending on your circumstances and your use of the iPhone, but my experience with a demo in the ATT store indicates that the speed of the EDGE network...well, let's just say "speed" and "EDGE" are mutually exclusive terms Think molasses running...uphill...in the winter...and that'll give you a feel for what we're talking about here. And if it's that bad as a demo in the ATT store, imagine what it'll be like under less than ideal conditions, which would be almost everywhere else!
Having experienced EDGE for myself, now I get the fuss over 3G for the iPhone. Using an iPhone on the EDGE network to access the web is not too far removed from a dial-up modem...and a darned expensive dial-up modem at that. Still want the iPhone in a bad way. Love the iPhone look and feel. However, that EDGE thing... I mean, please send all my best to those happy with the iPhone and EDGE network, but I'll wait for 3G myself. PUHLEEZE let it be June!!!
Okay, so today was the day I went down to the local ATT store today with the intent of buying an iPhone. No more waiting...just do it! Got to admit though, that this thread was in the back of my mind as I drove down there.
Walked into the store and right up to the demos on display. Still liked the way it felt in my hand. Still liked the nifty user interface. Things were looking good. Hmmm, the demo was running on EDGE. I'd never tried one of these without the WiFi so, with all the stuff I've read in this forum about EDGE v 3G, let's give it a try...
So I tried loading up CNN. After waiting and watching the iPhone try to load for 4 minutes, the phone went dark. Never did load the front page to CNN. Hey, there's a bookmark here for Yahoo, let's try that! 4 minutes later, dark phone - never did get to Yahoo. Tried to load eWeek...took a little nap...woke up to the same result. Called over a sales guy, told him my experience, he suggested we back out of Safari and try something on YouTube. Okay, let's load a list of today's most viewed...salesman goes
"that's way too much for an EDGE connection" - turns out he was right about that. Salesman calls more senior sales guy over, who looks at demo phone and tells us we should turn the WiFi back on. When I mention web surfing with EDGE, he tells me to stick to phone calls when there's no WiFi. Youch! I thanked both sales reps for their time and suggested they call me when the 3G model comes out...NO SALE!!! Your mileage may vary depending on your circumstances and your use of the iPhone, but my experience with a demo in the ATT store indicates that the speed of the EDGE network...well, let's just say "speed" and "EDGE" are mutually exclusive terms
Think molasses running...uphill...in the winter...and that'll give you a feel for what we're talking about here. And if it's that bad as a demo in the ATT store, imagine what it'll be like under less than ideal conditions, which would be almost everywhere else!Having experienced EDGE for myself, now I get the fuss over 3G for the iPhone. Using an iPhone on the EDGE network to access the web is not too far removed from a dial-up modem...and a darned expensive dial-up modem at that. Still want the iPhone in a bad way. Love the iPhone look and feel. However, that EDGE thing... I mean, please send all my best to those happy with the iPhone and EDGE network, but I'll wait for 3G myself. PUHLEEZE let it be June!!!
Not a chance. You put far too much stock into Intel. If a future iPhone revision ever gets one of Intel's new chips designed for ultramobile devices such as a smartphone, it won't be until the third or fourth revision (iPhone, Intel chip, take your pick) at the very least, and that's literally four or five years out. Why? Power. Not speed, but rather how much power it draws. ARM's RISC processors are the 800-lb. (or 1 lb.) gorilla to be dealt with in terms of performance versus power draw at the moment, and a recent AnandTech article (linked on the main MacRumors page regarding this very issue) downplays Intel's positioning of themselves into this market for years to come.
Intel wants to make itself a player, but they're so far behind ARM, it's going to take them years to position themselves as a competitor. Is it folly to completely discount Intel chips inside a future iPhone? Of course. Is it reasonable to suggest it won't be for four or five years? Based on Intel's first and probable second generation products, absolutely.
Seriously, do you think the iPhone needs to be "faster" anyway?
Let's think about this. If Apple was working on iPhone 2 years before we all seriously considered it, why wouldn't Apple build and test the phone on every network and on every service, including 3G? I'm sure they tried all the chips and found what they found. And more than likely they even had (or did it themselves) someone build them a custom 3G chip and test it until it met their specs.
I'm confident the 3G iPhone exists and has. It's in their roadmap and was all done at once. All they have to do is pull the trigger and start manufacturing in bulk.
-Steve
I'm confident the 3G iPhone exists and has. It's in their roadmap and was all done at once. All they have to do is pull the trigger and start manufacturing in bulk.
-Steve
Hence the discussion with JBaker122586 about timings. The power efficient 3G chip hasn't been out yet - it's only really as far as we know even made small samplings last autumn. Shippin in quantity around now, so Apple's had access i'd say to the 3G chip it'd pretty much use for going on >6 months, but not 2 years.
AGSHender - I agree - I don't think Intel competes. It has to fight through the tablet and laptop market first, then larger Mobile internet devices. And yes. Faster. Much faster. Hehe. Well, if it's going to take till Sept/November, at least it's guaranteed to have a 32Gb model
It seems to have gone quiet on the 3G iPhone's timing front
i don't understand what 3G is
Google it dude. It was "next gen" when it came out a few years ago in europe. Its a wireless standard for cell phone signals a third generation standard or "3G" standard.
Correct me if I'm wrong someone. Anyway it was supposed to usher in broadband type of connections with some even touting video conferencing. Never happened. But it certainly faster than EDGE thats for sure.
Personally, I'm much more interested in "4G" wimax or LTE solutions for city-wide always on broadband. Then we will see some video conferencing ala "tekwar" anybody remember those cool sci-fi telemovies that William Shatner did?
They wouldn't need to worry about CDMA, of course. They apparently only approached Verizon aside from ATT. Once those year long talks fell through, Apple knew they only had to build and test for ATT's GSM network.
As for 3G, it's possible that they built a large breadboard version, but decided it would cost too much to implement, along with worries about the extra user data plan price. (ATT probably only agreed to the $20 data plan because it was limited to EDGE.)
They didn't get seriously started on it until late 2005. By all reports, they barely got the iPhone working properly before its announcement, so it's doubtful they had any extra time to spend on anything else.
So I tried loading up CNN. After waiting and watching the iPhone try to load for 4 minutes, the phone went dark. Never did load the front page to CNN. Hey, there's a bookmark here for Yahoo, let's try that! 4 minutes later, dark phone - never did get to Yahoo. Tried to load eWeek...took a little nap...woke up to the same result. Called over a sales guy, told him my experience, he suggested we back out of Safari and try something on YouTube. Okay, let's load a list of today's most viewed...salesman goes
i shared your concerns. i've been on verizon (Treo 700w) with data for 2 years. Speeds were decent (200-800 kbps), usually around 300kbps. but i grew tired of the tiny square screen and low memory. i was only able to load certain low intensity web sites - anything graphics intensive would lock up the phone and require a soft reset.
Last weekend i bit the bullet for iPhone. I was tired of waiting for 3G. I'll be saving $50/month (Verizon was costing me $110/month) so i figure if a 3G iPhone takes 6 months, my savings alone will cover most of the cost of getting another iPhone.
EDGE is SLOW, no doubt about it. It really depends on your location. Sadly, where I work EDGE is really lousy, and i get anywhere from 70-110 kbps. Elsewhere, i get a solid 200. 200 kbps is fine - when you combine it with a good device (iPhone) and broswer (Safari). Data speed is not everything - the device and how it renders pages is important. Safari is light years ahead of Pocket IE on the Treo.
I'm happy for now. the iPhone allows me to carry one device instead of a large phone and an ipod. For me its worth it even with the slower EDGE.
This subject has been really beat to death, but as I have stated in other threads...IMHO no one will see iPhone 2 until October.
The SDK was predicted for February. Was one week late in release of Beta but no one gets to use it until June...4 month wait.
Major software update...iTunes Store...version 1.1.1 (I believe) was released roughly 4 months after the iPhone went on sale.
16gb iPhone released roughly 4 months after the major software upgrade, same time period as SDK beta release.
June comes around and has release of new 2.0 software, bolsters and renews current iPhone to empty current inventories of remaining 8gig and 16gig iPhones.
iPhone 2 released 3-4 months later to take advantage of marketing strategies and empty inventory of old model to increase the chance to reach predicted sales of 10m units. If they release software update 2.0 & iPhone 2 at the same time, they risk the chance of not reaching the sales goal. If they spread it out over two different release opportunities, they increase the odds of reaching the goal. Released in time for holiday shopping and Oct is also the start of the Fiscal Year (marketing/sales).
This is my prediction and opinion.
The SDK was predicted for February. Was one week late in release of Beta but no one gets to use it until June...4 month wait.
Major software update...iTunes Store...version 1.1.1 (I believe) was released roughly 4 months after the iPhone went on sale.
16gb iPhone released roughly 4 months after the major software upgrade, same time period as SDK beta release.
June comes around and has release of new 2.0 software, bolsters and renews current iPhone to empty current inventories of remaining 8gig and 16gig iPhones.
iPhone 2 released 3-4 months later to take advantage of marketing strategies and empty inventory of old model to increase the chance to reach predicted sales of 10m units. If they release software update 2.0 & iPhone 2 at the same time, they risk the chance of not reaching the sales goal. If they spread it out over two different release opportunities, they increase the odds of reaching the goal. Released in time for holiday shopping and Oct is also the start of the Fiscal Year (marketing/sales).
This is my prediction and opinion.
Is the SDK enough of a "landmark event. In more ways than one" ?
I'd imagine Apple wouldn't want to announce iPhone in new markets too close to the upgrade to a 3G iPhone.
So.... thoughts?
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I believe only time will tell. The only other thing i will say is that it makes complete sense for apple to release new hardware along with new software
t0mat0 said:
I believe only time will tell. The only other thing i will say is that it makes complete sense for apple to release new hardware along with new software