[A] The Agency - GAME OVER -- SPIES WIN

[FenrisMoonlight]

I've been out all day. I see people quickly voted down Wood's team - that probably makes most sense - we know it has 1 spy and possibly has 2 on it. Votes were

nay: 5 TechGod, twietee, mscriv, Queen of Spades, Moyank24
Yet to vote: Sythas, Don't panic, Koodauw, FenrisMoonlight

@Sythas Interesting team choice. It looks reasonable. I'm on it which is a good sign since I know I'm an agent. It's going with the simpler explanation of a QoS being the spy that failed mission 2. We've really got to choose which scenario we believe is true and run with it - if we're wrong we lose. It means mscriv was unlucky enough to include 2 spies on his initial team.

@twietee - your card list is slightly wrong - we used both Eavesdrops but we have an Establish Confidence left. I agree A Close Eye and In the Spotlight are now basically worthless.

I make it that we have the following cards left
A Close Eye: 2x (worthless)
No Confidence: 1x
In the Spotlight: 1x (worthless)
Establish Confidence: 1x
Open Up: 1x

We've been a bit unlucky with the cards I think to get into a state where 1/2 the remaining cards are useless to us. Fingers crossed a useful one comes out in the next mission or its fairly certain we're going to lose.

 

[TechGod]

I'm an agent as well.

 

[WoodNUFC]

I'm an agent as well.

Me too!!

 

[TechGod]

Me too!!

Ok, maybe that wasn't the best post I've made here

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

Me too!!

I totally believe you. I'll no confidence any team without you in it! NOT!

 

[twietee]

@twietee - your card list is slightly wrong - we used both Eavesdrops but we have an Establish Confidence left.

Thanks, I forgot to edit the post after DP pointed out the flaw - seems like I do have a hard time counting to six though..

 

[Queen of Spades]

Is that the final team selection? Well, considering Wood voted publicly on turn 2 (success), that means DP is still a spy. So if this team goes through we lose. Which is just as well at this point. A perverse part of me wants to see it go through, as I'm sick of repeating myself.

 

[Sythas]

Is that the final team selection? Well, considering Wood voted publicly on turn 2 (success), that means DP is still a spy. So if this team goes through we lose. Which is just as well at this point. A perverse part of me wants to see it go through, as I'm sick of repeating myself.

This is the final vote team and Wood and DP's voting are not linked together, so I don't really understand your point. with wood going out is should not change how you feel about DP, since you already "kwen knew" he was a spy...


EDIT : vote to team

EDIT 2 : I like how I skipped over the kewn thing on my first edit

 

[Queen of Spades]

This is the final vote and Wood and DP's voting are not linked together, so I don't really understand your point. with wood going out is should not change how you feel about DP, since you already "kwen" he was a spy...

It doesn't change how I feel about DP. I forgot this one requires two fail votes. I don't know, if you feel strongly about TechGod and Fenris, go for it. But DP is for sure a spy.

 

[mscriv]

Ok for my team it's gonna be

@mscriv
@twietee

now the rest is gonna be hard and I don't have my notes

@FenrisMoonlight
@Don't panic
@TechGod

So this is your final team for sure? I can only assume it is since you have bolded the names.

 

[Don't panic]

with wood being (self-outed) as a spy, yhis calls into a questions to an extent the mscriv being cleared assumption.
that was based on the fact that he was identified as an agent by two independent sources (wood and twietee).
however, one of those two pillars came crumbling down, so now it is just twietee that guarantees for mscriv.
however, if they are spies, it means there were at least 3 spies in techgod's team and they managed to coordinate that only wood would vote fail. seems highly unlikely, so i am sticking with QoS being the spy.

 

[mscriv]

Nothing's changed DP. I'm an agent like I've always been. WoodNUFC didn't lie because he had no reason to and it wouldn't have been good strategy if he did so early in the game.

I've got some interesting ideas running around in my head, but I want to hear what others are thinking at this point before I go into detail.

 

[Don't panic]

Nothing's changed DP. I'm an agent like I've always been. WoodNUFC didn't lie because he had no reason to and it wouldn't have been good strategy if he did so early in the game.

I've got some interesting ideas running around in my head, but I want to hear what others are thinking at this point before I go into detail.

yes that seems the most logical conclusion, but i want to cover my bases. i would also be inclined to think that wood was the only spy in the last team, since it would have been easy to stay hidden one more round if not, which would make twietee and sythas also agents. the only thing that gives some pause is twietee's putative "hidden message" earlier on, while sythas' would have gone the other way

 

[ravenvii]

I'm setting a hard deadline at 7 PM EST tonight to yay or nay Sythas' team. I'll assume that the team he named above is his final team.

 

[WoodNUFC]

Yay

 

[Moyank24]

Had surgery and am heading home soon, so I haven't had a chance to catch up fully but will try to do so before the deadline so I can vote.

 

[mscriv]

Had surgery and am heading home soon, so I haven't had a chance to catch up fully but will try to do so before the deadline so I can vote.

Um... surgery is a bit more important than this game so no worries. I hope all went well and that recovery is speedy.

 

[mscriv]

OK, due to the deadline I'm going to go ahead and post some of my thoughts. I agree with DP regarding the theory that Twietee and Sythas are likely agents thus forcing WoodNUFC to vote publicly. It's a worthwhile sacrifice for the spies to get a second victory and only have one of them outed for sure.

With that being said my thought is to put together a team of myself, Twietee, Sythas, DP and QOS.

Yep, let that sink in.

Here's the thing, the spies need two fail votes to win this round. We certainly believe that either DP or QOS is a spy, but the chances of them both being a spy is unlikely. Putting them both on the team ensures us that if the Open Up card comes out then we can give it to one of them and get a definite answer. If we take the team to a vote then the agents should win 4-1 and tie the game at 2-2 with a great chance of taking round 5. I understand this strategy is kind of like going "all in" at the poker table, but what other choices do we have? It's a bold move, but I think it's going to require a bold move for the agents to win this one.

My concerns about Sythas' team are...
1. He's not on it and is likely an agent
2. We know little to nothing about Fenris so going with him is another shot in the dark
3. Without QOS on the team we can't get any further information about her.

With all of that being said, NAY

 

[Don't panic]

Had surgery and am heading home soon, so I haven't had a chance to catch up fully but will try to do so before the deadline so I can vote.

good luck with everything

 

[Don't panic]

OK, due to the deadline I'm going to go ahead and post some of my thoughts. I agree with DP regarding the theory that Twietee and Sythas are likely agents thus forcing WoodNUFC to vote publicly. It's a worthwhile sacrifice for the spies to get a second victory and only have one of them outed for sure.

With that being said my thought is to put together a team of myself, Twietee, Sythas, DP and QOS.

Yep, let that sink in.

Here's the thing, the spies need two fail votes to win this round. We certainly believe that either DP or QOS is a spy, but the chances of them both being a spy is unlikely. Putting them both on the team ensures us that if the Open Up card comes out then we can give it to one of them and get a definite answer. If we take the team to a vote then the agents should win 4-1 and tie the game at 2-2 with a great chance of taking round 5. I understand this strategy is kind of like going "all in" at the poker table, but what other choices do we have? It's a bold move, but I think it's going to require a bold move for the agents to win this one.

My concerns about Sythas' team are...
1. He's not on it and is likely an agent
2. We know little to nothing about Fenris so going with him is another shot in the dark
3. Without QOS on the team we can't get any further information about her.

With all of that being said, NAY

that is a hell of a gamble. if it were 1-1 i would say it was a good plan (or 2-1 us), but at 1-2 it could cost the game.
you would be giving up the best advantage remaining (the 2 fail mission) by certainly assigning one of the spots to a spy.
i prefer the odds of this mission, since it is less likely that fenris/tech are both spies than just one of twietee and sythas is

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

OK, due to the deadline I'm going to go ahead and post some of my thoughts. I agree with DP regarding the theory that Twietee and Sythas are likely agents thus forcing WoodNUFC to vote publicly. It's a worthwhile sacrifice for the spies to get a second victory and only have one of them outed for sure.

With that being said my thought is to put together a team of myself, Twietee, Sythas, DP and QOS.

Yep, let that sink in.

Here's the thing, the spies need two fail votes to win this round. We certainly believe that either DP or QOS is a spy, but the chances of them both being a spy is unlikely. Putting them both on the team ensures us that if the Open Up card comes out then we can give it to one of them and get a definite answer. If we take the team to a vote then the agents should win 4-1 and tie the game at 2-2 with a great chance of taking round 5. I understand this strategy is kind of like going "all in" at the poker table, but what other choices do we have? It's a bold move, but I think it's going to require a bold move for the agents to win this one.

My concerns about Sythas' team are...
1. He's not on it and is likely an agent
2. We know little to nothing about Fenris so going with him is another shot in the dark
3. Without QOS on the team we can't get any further information about her.

With all of that being said, NAY

Your team has definitely 1 agent and maybe 2. It's very similiar to Wood's team except including Sythas rather than Koodauw, so if Wood put 2 spies on his team your team is also a fail team unless Koodauw was the second spy.
We also don't need both DP and QoS on the team to get information about them. Surely it makes more sense to put the one we most trust on the team and check them out.

I'm an agent so I will vote Nay on any team without me on it from now on.

TBH with the way the cards have gone we're going to need a fair amount of luck to win now. We may make it past mission 4 but I'm not particularly hopeful for mission 5 as that requires us to have identified all the spies since we'd need an agent to propose an all agent team.

So my concerns about your proposal are:
It doesn't help clear/find anyone else other than DP/QoS which I agree is useful but:
If we find QoS is a spy we still only have 2 spies found.
If we find DP is a spy we have 3 spies found which gives us a better chance of getting through mission 5.
If you and Twietee are spies we lose in mission 4.

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

Had surgery and am heading home soon, so I haven't had a chance to catch up fully but will try to do so before the deadline so I can vote.

Hope you recover soon.

 

[Don't panic]

Your team has definitely 1 agent and maybe 2. It's very similiar to Wood's team except including Sythas rather than Koodauw, so if Wood put 2 spies on his team your team is also a fail team unless Koodauw was the second spy.
We also don't need both DP and QoS on the team to get information about them. Surely it makes more sense to put the one we most trust on the team and check them out.

I'm an agent so I will vote Nay on any team without me on it from now on.

TBH with the way the cards have gone we're going to need a fair amount of luck to win now. We may make it past mission 4 but I'm not particularly hopeful for mission 5 as that requires us to have identified all the spies since we'd need an agent to propose an all agent team.

So my concerns about your proposal are:
It doesn't help clear/find anyone else other than DP/QoS which I agree is useful but:
If we find QoS is a spy we still only have 2 spies found.
If we find DP is a spy we have 3 spies found which gives us a better chance of getting through mission 5.
If you and Twietee are spies we lose in mission 4.

we lose on mission 4 even if twietee is a spy and mscriv is not (still a possibility), since if mscriv is not a spy, then QoS is (or me if you believe her). and we would lose if sythas is a spy (although i think this is the least likely)

 

[FenrisMoonlight]

we lose on mission 4 even if twietee is a spy and mscriv is not (still a possibility), since if mscriv is not a spy, then QoS is (or me if you believe her). and we would lose if sythas is a spy (although i think this is the least likely)

True. I'm going back through and looking at votes and stuff again. See if there's anything we can figure out now we know Wood is a spy.

 

[twietee]

mscriv, I don't follow you. what's the advantage about having one spy for certain on the team when Open Up would definitely give enough intel with only one (regardless which one, although I personally would feel more confident with DP) on board? On another note: did you re-read the thread (or at least the part where one of DP and QoS failed the mission - any signs of, eh, signs between them? I'm super tired now so will check in later to eventually vote but can't plough through this beastly thread just now.

I agree with Fenris' doubts re mission five. It'll be a gamble till the very end.

Koodauw, you still around?

***

All the best, Moyank!