AAPL drops....why?

Discussion in 'Buying Tips and Advice' started by asherman13, Feb 6, 2006.

  1. asherman13 macrumors 6502a

    asherman13

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    #1
    Does anybody know why AAPL seems to be drastically dropping today, to the tune of almost $5 per share? I planned on basing my MacBook Pro purchase on my sale of AAPL, yet now its almost down to $67 per share. I checked nasdaq.com for news, yet there's no explaination as to why the stock is falling so much.

    Does anybody here know what's going on?:confused:
     
  2. Mord macrumors G4

    Mord

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    #2
    nope but as soon as it go's on the increase i'm buying.
     
  3. iGary Guest

    iGary

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    #3
    Me too.

    Good time to buy.

    This is the lemmings running saying it grew too quick, getting their money out now.
     
  4. asherman13 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    asherman13

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    #4
    True. I bought before the split, so AAPL would have to drop below $45 for me to lose money, yet, I want it to go up!:mad: I want my MacBook Pro!
     
  5. asherman13 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    asherman13

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    #5
    True. I bought before the split, so AAPL would have to drop below $45 for me to lose money, yet, I want it to go up!:mad: I want my MacBook Pro!

    EDIT Perhaps I should buy more?

    EDIT2 Apologies for the dual post; I was using a PC.
     
  6. ~Shard~ macrumors P6

    ~Shard~

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    #6
    Wow, how many AAPL threads are there now, 12?

    I'm closing my short position in the next couple days at ~$20/share, and will then be looking to reinvest the profits into a long position. :cool:
     
  7. budugu macrumors 6502

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    Boston, MA
    #7
    Stock was heavily traded and over heated. I read some where that the CitiBank thinks the right price is arround 65-70$ in the long term. Unless they can show that the transition goes well they are going to loose much more (Adobe announcement has got some thing to do with it?). EVERY TIME apple made a transition it lost 40% of its market share! (EE Times had a nice graph back then july issue i think). So be careful before you buy.

    A good stock need a low PE and high EPS. apple currently has the worst combination of high PE and Extremely low EPS.
     
  8. Coolnat2004 macrumors 6502

    Coolnat2004

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    #8
    Darn.. I bought it at around 69. It was going strong right after Macworld, but now it's dropped below my buying point.

    Grr..
     
  9. mdavey macrumors 6502a

    mdavey

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    #9
    Probably due to the Google|Skype announcement. The analysts were expecting Apple to produce an iphone this year and this latest announcement from Google impacts on that.

    Plus other recent news and rumors from Google also negatively impacts Apple:
    * Google OS rumor
    * 'Google mini' rumor
    * Google+Napster rumor
    * The Sun|Google announcement and rumors of Google working with Sun on a web-based version of OpenOffice
    * Google video introduction

    The analysts are starting to get the willies about Google becoming a competitor to Apple. I'm still hoping that Apple and Google are actually working together on some of the above rumors.
     
  10. dxm113 macrumors member

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    Jan 22, 2005
    #10

    TOUCHE!

    AAPL is way overpriced. An "intelligent investor" wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole ;)

    I feel that the drop in price is a market correction, because AAPL is trading at too high a price. All of the hype surrounding Apple in the past year has led to the hike in AAPL stock.

    AKA the speculation has grown much more rapidly than the value of the stock
     
  11. ~Shard~ macrumors P6

    ~Shard~

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    #11
    Yep, quite true. The technicals were pointing to a decline as well. The momentum and stochastics were giving indications, as well as the RSI. Fundamentally, there were the obvious news items as well, and then there's bound to be some uncertainty regarding the switch to Intel.... :cool:
     
  12. budugu macrumors 6502

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    #12
    I could not help notice your sign. They tried to work for some time before Apple decided that sun was the enemy! I some how thing Apple + Any thing = no possibilities. I have yet to see them go along with any one nicely for more than couple of years!
     
  13. mdavey macrumors 6502a

    mdavey

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    #13
    <offtopic>
    You may have a point. I don't think that Apple actually sees Sun as the enemy, just that Sun and Apple actually have really quite different business philosophies (despite having much product synergy).

    I think that Scott McNealy or Jonathan Schwartz recently commented that Sun and Apple had attempted to work together on several technologies including networking, X11 and a desktop technology but weren't able to find a way to work together. I suspect that this is because in each case Apple wanted to go the proprietary route while Sun wanted to go the standards-based route.

    Maybe in a few years time we'll learn that Apple and Google wanted to work together on various projects but weren't able to find a way because Google wanted to go network-centric, service based while Apple wanted to a solution based on close coupling of client hardware and software.
    </offtopic>
     
  14. mojohanna macrumors 6502a

    mojohanna

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    #14
    From market watch:
    Apple's overall business remains solid, but that there are genuine concerns about the company's abilities to match is year-over-year profit and revenue figures, according to the fund manager.

    Bacarella also said that there is little to suggest it is necessary to sell Apple shares, but that the stock needs to show some strength at the $67 mark to maintain broad confidence.

    "My gut feeling is that people are taking some [profits] off the books," he continued. "They feel the stock looks tired and want to get some payoff from it. If there was any real bad news, [the stock] would have broken down before now."

    Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call estimate that Apple will earn 44 cents a share on $4.58 billion in revenue for its current, second fiscal quarter. Such figures would result in a 29% rise in earnings per share and a 41% increase in revenue.


    Basically means that people are hedging their bets. Take the profict now because they don't feel that Apple can sustain the RATE of growth it has over the past year. When you make the base number larger, it is very difficult to continue to have 20% or more growth. From a raw number standpoint that $ amount would have to be significant.

    It doesn't have anything to do with image or bad news, but speculation. Let's face it, the stock market is leagalized gambling. You are just playing the odds.
     
  15. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #15

    and AAPL has been a favorite for speculation for quite a while now.....it wouldnt take much "bads news" to send many of the speculators fleeing creating a drop in the price of the stock.....after a number of spectacular quarters where profits surpassed projections, simply having a really good profitable quarter that meets the analysts projections would look like "bad" news to stock speculators
     
  16. CelticBhoy macrumors member

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  17. ~Shard~ macrumors P6

    ~Shard~

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    #17
    Yes please, that would be great for my current short position in the stock.. :D
     
  18. generik macrumors 601

    generik

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    #18
    Conspiracy theory:

    1) Bill Gates owns his huge personal stash of Steve's Gonads
    2) Bill's underground crack squad of hackers just managed to break the protection on OSX. Behold! OSX on Dells!
     
  19. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #19
    Where are the people who said buy AAPL at any price? Off licking their wounds, presumably -- as is anyone who acted on their advice.

    AAPL has been a momentum play for over a year now. The company's sales growth has justified the momentum by in large, but one thing we should have learned in the late '90s is that momentum stocks can bust in a hurry when the wind in the sails slacks just a little. Then you can get a mad rush for the exits, no matter what the fundamentals indicate.

    BTW, I disagree with the analysis that AAPL is overpriced. The markets make that decision every day. One day the stock is judged to be overpriced, and it goes down. The next day it's judged to be underpriced and it goes up. That said, AAPL's revenue and EPS growth has been staggering over the past few years. Consequently, it makes little sense to look at indicators like PE ratios because they tell the story of the past, not the future. Nobody knows the future until it happens.
     
  20. asherman13 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    asherman13

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    #20
  21. buffalo macrumors 65816

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    #21
    I thought I had read about a stock split sometime soon? Is that true or not?
     
  22. cb911 macrumors 601

    cb911

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    #22
    :eek:

    am i missing something here... is there an 'unspoken secret' of dealing in the stock market?

    i always thought that you buy when shares are low, then sell when they're high. that way you make money! :p
     
  23. oingoboingo macrumors 6502a

    oingoboingo

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    #23
    Step 1: Buy shares at expensive peak
    Step 2: Wait for shares to slump back down
    Step 3: ???
    Step 4: PROFIT!!!
     
  24. asherman13 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    asherman13

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    #24
    I think they meant that as soon as there's a positive upswing, meaning an indication or the beginning of a gradual and large increase, they're gonna buy.
     
  25. ~Shard~ macrumors P6

    ~Shard~

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    #25
    Yeah, there are lots of people out there who just shouldn't be buying stock... :p :cool:
     

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