Ace up the sleeve

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by pseudobrit, Oct 7, 2004.

  1. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Location:
    Jobs' Spare Liver Jar
    #1
    Polls are showing Kerry ahead. Assuming Kerry puts Bush away in the coming debates, what can Team Arbusto do to avoid elimination?

    I'm thinking they're holding the bin Laden card, and will announce his "death" just before election day. It will be presumed, of course, after a bombing attack. "Officials still need to verify DNA samples, but the body matches the profile" will be the clause.

    Then, even if we haven't killed him, it will take a week or more for bin Laden to rush a new videotape onto the scene, by which time Bush will have (if the ploy works) won the election.

    Call me crazy, but I'll bet they've got this one in the playbook.
     
  2. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #2
    i'm still of the belief the election date may slip. i'm sure there are a number of scenarios cooked up to make that happen.
     
  3. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

    Joined:
    May 22, 2003
    Location:
    San Francisco
    #3
    I'm not buying into the "they've got bin Laden on ice waiting to announce his capture" conspiracy theory. What I do think will happen is heighten terror alerts approaching the elections, including the use of such threats to place fear in the minds of people going to the polls. All they need is some announcement by Ashcroft about attacks against voters to hold down the numbers. Of course, al Qaeda will be eager to make such threats real. I would hope it would backfire, but who knows?
     
  4. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #4
    Bin Laden? Who's that? I thought Saddam planned 9/11?

    J/k BTW.

    I think the whole "we got Bin Laden" thing might backfire. So many people are expecting it to happen that way. Besides, we're pulling people out of Afganistan and Pakistan, so where would we catch him? Iraq? That would look mighty suspicious, and I would hope most people wouldn't fall for it.

    If they do catch Bin Laden and announce it right before the election, I hope there is time for questions to be asked.
     
  5. wwworry macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2002
    #5
    a lot of right wingnuts are already claiming Bin Laden is dead, conveniently!

    I just heard the justice department issue a special terror alert for schools "not based on any specific information" just after what happened in Russia. This goes along with what Sayhey was saying - fear for your children etc. But I would not be surprised by anything this administration pulls. We have seen Cheney publicly lie a number of times already and with Bush you never know if he is lying or just crocked.
     
  6. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #6
    Hey, if we're lucky, just before the election Osama will issue one of his "Nyaah nyaah, you missed me!" videotapes. :D
     
  7. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #7
    I really wonder about demographics...

    As for the traditional voter(s), who are well-represented in the polls, it seems that only a slim margin have not already decided who they are voting for. That remaining margin is trumped up as the deciding factor in deciding the Election. That could very well be the case, and they might be receptive to last-minute spin.

    There is, however, the group of mostly youthful, left-leaning voters who are being mobilized by grass-roots campaigns such as ACT. They are traditionally not very politically active and perhaps subsequently not taken into account by "experts" forecasting the Election. It is doubtful that this group would be significantly swayed by anything out of the Bush Campaign.
    I beleive that it may be this group that actually decides things.

    Perhaps it is merely wishful thinking...but if there is any monkey-business to do with effecting the Election, I believe it would be done in the vote-tabulation arena.

    I have a feeling that it will be a little messy, with both sides crying foul, if they lose...

    oh democracy, take a look in the mirror.
     
  8. mischief macrumors 68030

    mischief

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2001
    Location:
    Santa Cruz Ca
    #8
    Declaring Bin Laden DOA would be the biggest tactical error concievable. If the USA, Britain or Israel claimed to have waxed the guy it would make him the ultimate Jyhadi Martyr. It would be even worse if we had proof or, god forbid... video tape.

    I think that if this administration has any un-coke-fried braincells left they better keep the Martyrdom thing in mind.
     
  9. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #9
    for the sake of argument, here's a contender:

    ...could be ripe for the pickin'

    FWIW (from washpost)
     
  10. Lyle macrumors 68000

    Lyle

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2003
    Location:
    Madison, Alabama
    #10
    I am admittedly a partisan Republican, so I'd like to throw out the question just to understand the "other side" sees this. Suppose that Kerry were to win the presidency, and that this discovery (a computer disk with diagrams and photos of several U.S. schools) were made sometime next year, after he takes office. What would be an appropriate response by the F.B.I. and/or the DHS?
     
  11. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2004
    Location:
    having a drink at Milliways
    #11
    I'll bite first.
    If the disk was real, then there would be only one way to deal with it, and it would be to do "whatever it takes" to prevent anything from happening. I don't know specifically what the "correct" course of action would specifically be, but -regardless of their previous screwups- I would still hope that the fbi, cia and dhs agencies would know best what to do.
    But here comes the problem: the current administration has flooded us with so much lies (or blunders, incompetence, mistakes, misunderstandings, misjudgements, whatever you want to call them), that they are left with zero credibility, and almost anything they do will be suspicious and suggest second motives. This alone should be reason enough (but far and away not one of the major ones) to vote them out.
     
  12. pseudobrit thread starter macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Location:
    Jobs' Spare Liver Jar
    #12
    Invade something.
     
  13. pseudobrit thread starter macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Location:
    Jobs' Spare Liver Jar
    #13
    Many schools are polling places, FWIW.
     
  14. wwworry macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Mar 23, 2002
    #14
    Scare First. Explain Later.

    Here is the follow up that no one will hear about. Most people will just thing there is credible information that terrorists are targeting specific schools.

    Scare First. Explain Later.

    U.S. officials say no terror threat linked to disk with school data

     
  15. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #15
    i'm surprised the terror light hasn't been flicked on and off as of late. that would move the polls a few points into the bush column, i bet. or maybe that's the plan for next week.
     
  16. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #16
    I dunno, Bush did tell us that when you are being shot at is when you need to vote most, right? So if there is a terrorist attack, that's even MORE reason to vote according to the president.

    All I know is that they better be damn careful if they pull anything like that. The Spainish government tried to pull a fast one on their citizens and got voted out because of it.
     
  17. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2004
    #17
    With Bush playing the 'you're safe with me' card, it's hard to tell exactly what would happen if there was some terrorist-type incident on US mainland 48-96 hours before the polls open, particularly if considerable casualties were involved.

    Because it would have happened 'on his watch' it could go heavily against the Republicans OR people may just rally around... it may play like the Reichstag fire or it may not.

    As mactastic just pointed out, the Spanish government badly miscalculated the effect on the public's mood of the train bombings and were booted out...
     
  18. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #18
    In the case of Spain, the backlash against the government was mainly a function of their attempting to sandbag the evidence that the attack was perpetrated by Al Qaeda. A terrorist attack in the US before the election would have an unpredictable impact on the outcome, but a foiled attack attempt would be a big plus for Bush.
     
  19. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #19
    and how would we learn of a "foiled attack?"
     
  20. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #20
    If they were doing their job, you'd never hear about the successes, only the failures. Unless they wanted to publicize and politicize and success, and use it to scare people. It could very well backfire on him, though.
     
  21. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #21
    What, you think the White House would be too shy to tell us that they'd apprehended a person or persons in the process of planning or carrying out an attack? In fact if I had to guess at an October Surprise, it would be the arrest of "major terrorist suspects" in US who were "planning an imminent attack on _____." It'd take weeks at least before anyone could begin to sort out whether the government had any kind of case against the arrestees, and by then of course, the election is long gone. That dog is just way too easy to wag.
     
  22. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #22
    exactly. the annoucement would come from those who would benefit from it the most.
     
  23. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2002
    Location:
    Republic of Ukistan
    #23
    How could you even suspect such a thing? How un-American of you!
     
  24. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #24
    You forgot the :p or ;)
     

Share This Page