Put me down in the, "I'll believe it when I see it" crowd. Getting decent battery life out of
anything with a 0.3W radio transmitter in it is difficult -- unless you don't use it to actually talk to anyone, or put in a large battery. "Ye cannae change the laws o' physics!"
Then there's the whole broadcast standards issue:
- Too slow for music downloads (IMHO):
- GSM - best worldwide coverage and market share, but the channel for voice data (hence any other kind of data) is <14.4kbps.
- EDGE - improves on GSM by bonding multiple GSM channels together, but that still only gets it to ~180kbps under ideal conditions. Marginal at best.
- CDMA (IS-95) - has excellent coverage in North America, Latin America, and South Korea, but again is limited to <14.4kbps.
- CDMA-1X (IS-2000) - similar coverage to CDMA, but at up to ~153kbps (ideal conditions). Same problems as CDMA and EDGE.
- Fast enough for music downloads (again, IMHO):
- CDMA EV-DO (and REV A) - Downlink peaks at >2.5Mbps. Same coverage problem as CDMA.
- UMTS/3G/3GSM/WCDMA - Downlink peaks at >1.92Mbps. Broad deployment in Europe, growing deployment in U.S. The air interface (the radio) actually is CDMA, it's just not using the IS-95/2000 standard to avoid a lot of Qualcomm's IP.
- HSDPA - UMTS upgrade. Theoretical downlink speeds approaching 14.4Mbps. Still being deployed.
Therefore, I think UMTS would be the way for Apple to go for the broadest market opportunity at this time with a phone that does downloads of full-quality iTunes music files. In the U.S., since Cingular already has its own WMA-based music store, this might present a conflict of interest. T-Mobile, perhaps? European buyers can clearly go and get the phone unlocked.
An Apple MVNO? Maybe, but risky. Virgin Mobile is doing pretty well, but Disney's expected to
lose $135 million on its ESPN and Disney MVNOs this year.
If --
IF -- there is ever an iPhone announced, I'll be the first on the block to buy one. And promptly take it apart to see how much of the hardware Apple actually designed.