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Discussion in 'MacBytes.com News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Mar 8, 2004.
Link: Apple Death Knell #38: "The Mac Market Is Ending"
Posted on MacBytes.com
Generally speaking, I'm in favor of any article that puts a neon "idiot" sign around the neck of Paul Thurrott or Rob Enderle. But that's just me.
Don't give the guy hits.
He thinks because Mac sales are growing--but currently not as fast as Windows sales--that Mac OS X is doomed in the face of the glory that is Windows XP
I don't understand Thurrott's logic. If I understand it correctly, he's basically saying/agreeing that, "PC sales are predicted to grow, so based on that and assuming Apple's sales won't grow, mac market share will fall."
I guess it can be expected from someone who said in July last year, after the launch of BuyMusic.com, "iTMS, excellent though it is, is now officially toast. Apple should have supported Windows from Day One. Now, it's too late."
What a moron.
Why bother with him? Deep Thurott will continue to speak against Apple regardless of how well it does in hardware, software, or sales. It's his job.
There is a point, though. Apple needs dearly to expand. It's not bleak but I wouldn't exactly consider the situation prosperous.
what's worse than people blindly touting apple superiority (face it, it happens!)??? it's people that STILL blindly tout apple's doom... seriously... doesn't this seem rediculus?
the name thurott has become synonymous with blind, uninformed, apocalyptic tales of apple computer. it's just so darn annoying...
Lies, damned lies and statistics
I'm not at all saying that the 1.88% world market share is wrong, just that it includees a whole lot of markets that Apple isn't in and doesn't want to be in. The numbers include everything from diskless PIII desktop email stations to $15,000 servers.
Apple doen't make and I don't think intendes to make a low-end "el cheapo" business computer system. Personally I'd love to see it happen though; something along the lines of the old LC series, small, basic, cheap, no built-in monitor.
Apple also doesn't have any high end servers. The xServe is a very niche product and does what it does well. But the xserve doesn't compete in the high end 4+ SMP market. There's certainly no Mac that I'd use foe a plain-old F&P server, they're just way too overkill and expesive for that.
If you were to look at Apple's main two designated markets: Consumer and Professional, you'd see dramatically different market share numbers.
Go after the Linux market share
What percentage of those run Linux? For years I tried to like Linux. Coming from a UNIX background it seemed like it had the potential to be the best of both worlds. I could never achieve what I wanted from that OS. Then I bought my G5 with OSX. It's a dream come true. If somehow Apple could play to the Linux world and convert them to the Mac, that would definitely be a nice increase to the market share
Here's a quote from Linux Magazine "MacOS X, of course, is the leading Unix desktop operating system of all time." See http://www.linux-mag.com/2003-12/bsd_01.html for the entire article.
Though the author is a little outhere he does have a few valid points. I think Apple has a very big problem with smaller and smaller sales. when you start thinking that out of 100 new computers sold apple is getting 2% of those sales that isnt good no matter how much we think Apple does no wrong. How does this bring in programs to the mac when it is such a tiny fraction of what can be made when you can sell programs to the 98% of the market. Apples whole product line trips over each other with crippling killing more sales, finding software for mac is a headache unless you live in California. Its only Mail order in most parts of the world and thats only if someone makes the program you want for mac. Here where I live if i had a Pc I can walk into anystore and come home with stuff for it( hardware and software) for Mac its mail or a drive into the next state. Then there is the waiting and waiting for the next expo to see if they will release what you are looking for. To many games from Apple. Sure they have money in the bank but what good will that be when the market gets down to 1% of new sales? Apple is taking the road to obscurity. I am not saying they will be dead anytime soon but this path is not the correct one and i lay more blame on Motorola's G4 and Steve Jobs then anything else. I have used Macs for 15 years but even I have thought of becoming a switcher simply because there is so little on the Apple side and so much more on the otherside. am I wrong?
I wonder how many of those 187 million boxes are actually going out to replace existing boxes (thus a smaller gain in new users), and how many of the 3+ million apple boxes are going out to new switched users.
apple may only hold a small margain at best on the market, apple is also not going to die. in my opinion, they will actaully grow in the coming years. that is as long as they keep up in the processor clock wars (big blue is certainly helping that). furthermore they have pretty much cornered the mp3 player market. keep up the good work apple!
one must also remember that this only counts new macs being sold, what about the already installed user base? pcs tend to have a shorter shelf life than macs and so more pcs are sold to replace outdated/broken ones, whereas macs have a much longer life and the turnover rate is much longer....so while apple has 1.8% sold in the year that doesnt count who already has macs ect, same with the pc market...thus we really dont know the exact propotions, just what was sold that year...
Several things to note --
Many companies purchase two copies of Windows for each computer. This happens because they buy a site license to cover all their installed computers, but then they buy the machines from an OEM which is essentially forced, through its contracts with MS, to sell a Windows license with every PC sold. Because of this fact, not only are many companies truly wasting their money, but the number of copies of Windows licensed is wildly exaggerated.
Secondly, even of all those Windows boxes sold, the vast majority of them are not used as general purpose computers. They are niche products used as point of sale terminals, glorified terminals for mainframe/server access (like those used by telemarketers and people working at 1-800 numbers for megacorps, or bank tellers, etc), email/browsing machines for secretaries (and CEOs), and other braindead tasks. They will never have third-party software installed on them and they are not a part of the market for software. For example, note that before Acrobat Professional became a standard for corporations, more than half of Adobe's revenue came from sales of Mac software.
In short: if you consider only general purpose computers that will have software installed on them, a large portion of the marketshare of Windows is eliminated. Further, the market for software on the Mac is far larger per computer than the market for software on Windows, because Mac users do more with their computers (I saw a study that determined most Windows users use 4 to 5 applications regularly, while most Mac users use 10 to 12.). So, for businesses that want to sell software, we are getting to more accurate numbers here. I'd analyze it more thoroughly, but this should give the general idea.