I disagree, and here's
why.
The s700 by sonyericsson shows that these sort of devices ARE converging, and there is nothing clunky about it.
It's true that in the past convergence produced a clunky result, but the market for truly portable computing/media/communications devices is going to explode over the next 5 years as all the necessary technology is coming on stream, with the battery issue being the most problematic.
These aspects are a natural fit, as Media and communications both become much more useful with the addition of a real processor and harddrive.
PDA's are just an immature form of these future portable devices, as was the Newton. Traditional PDA type functionality is rapidly becoming a side issue, as seen by how the phones are assuming that role so easily, almost as a me too feature.
Phones can just as quickly become mp3 players too, with the addition of a decent harddrive.
The phone, you see, is the key, as everyone NEEDS to have a cellphone, but all the other features are to most people just options, including the mp3 playback.
Consider this; if in the next 3 years cellphones sprout 20gb harddrives to hold all the images you have taken with your built-in camera (a 2 mega pixel camera will be the norm by then), then what is to stop adding a little mp3 playback feature. 20gb of music on your phone, suddenly there is much less reason to own or carry yet another digital device to rattle around in your pocket; that silly old iPod.
Cellphones killed the PDA, and they will kill the iPod if it stays JUST an mp3 player.
Don't be sidetracked by what was said and done in the past, Apple will want a share of this, even if it means effectively building an iPod or some other device which includes a phone. Its one of the few things they can still do better than commodity PC makers, because making sophisticated but well designed products within a limited physical space requires real finesse.
That's the real future of the iPod.
