Apple Watch 2 Expected to Focus on Internal Upgrades Rather Than External Changes, Launch in Late 2016

[MacRumors]

Apple Watch shipments will decline more than 25 percent year-over-year in comparison to 2015, according to a new research note issued by KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The wearable device sold an estimated 10.6 million units in eight months last year, but Kuo predicts that even with the launch of the Apple Watch 2, and a full twelve months of sales, the device's shipments will still come in at less than 7.5 million units in 2016.

The analyst describes an "immature wearable device market" and a few key lacking features of the first-generation Apple Watch -- iPhone independency, no killer app, limited battery life, etc. -- that will contribute to its overall sales decline prior to the launch of the second-generation version. Kuo believes that the Apple Watch 2 will enter mass production in the third quarter of 2016, in line with a fall launch alongside the iPhone 7, so its overall contribution to shipping numbers for the year is predicted to be limited.

Kuo's note also predicts some of the features of the next version of the Apple Watch, which is expected to adopt the same upgrade cycle as the iPhone. In essence, 2016's Apple Watch 2 will see some under-the-hood spec improvements and possibly minor form factor changes, while fans will have to wait until 2017 for a massively redesigned wearable from Apple. The similar design is one of Kuo's biggest reasons for declining Apple Watch shipments in 2016, despite even the uptick in sales the device could have during the holiday season.

The recent KGI Securities research note directly conflicts with a report from less-reliable Apple analyst Brian White, released last Friday, that predicted the Apple Watch 2 will not only launch in two to three months, but adopt a 40 percent slimmer case design. That launch window would put a reveal by Apple at WWDC in June with a launch following a few weeks later.

In either launch scenario, the Apple Watch 2 is rumored to have a bevy of feature improvements over its predecessor, including a FaceTime video camera, an expansion of its Wi-Fi capabilities, and new model tiers. Rumored casings of the next iteration of the device could possibly even incorporate new materials such as titanium, tungsten, palladium or platinum.

Article Link: Apple Watch 2 Expected to Focus on Internal Upgrades Rather Than External Changes, Launch in Late 2016

 

[spiderman0616]

Analyst Speculates On Numbers That Have Never Been Reported: Film at 11.

 

[kemal]

Maybe they need more band options?

 

[JohnApples]

Would releasing the second watch alongside the next iPhone hurt the watch sales? People will already be dropping $650+ on the new iPhone, and I don't think the watch is appealing enough to drop an additional ~$300+ at the same time.

 

[Crosscreek]

Niche market not the next big thing Tim.

 

[mroffbeat]

Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love

 

[Dydegu]

2017 for a massively redesigned wearable from Apple?

I'm interested.

 

[Tubamajuba]

There's no guarantee that the Apple Watch will ever become a smash hit, but remember- the iPad didn't really take off until the iPad 2 was released. If the Apple Watch 2 can do the same thing for the Apple Watch, it's going to have a bright future.

 

[mattopotamus]

Makes sense. Most people who want one already have one. It doesn't appear like there is a big reason to upgrade to a V2.

 

[Andres Cantu]

Of course sales will decline if the watch looks the same as the current one. I mean, we've seen this design since late 2014. And with an "S" upgrade in 2016, that means the same design for at least three years.

 

[McFreggle]

Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love

Siri isn't the fastest on the Watch, I agree. But it is capable of handling some backlog. Most of the times, I raise my wrist, I say "Hey Siri, set a timer for 15 minutes", I lower my arm, and I check back 10 seconds later if it succeeded. 99% of the times it did.

But I fully agree the watch needs more CPU power and way faster response. And they should fix the 1% of the times when it didn't work. And its Siri should be capable of doing all the things the phone Siri can do.

 

[samcraig]

Because people don't buy new smart watches every year. Because those that wanted one, most have purchased them. There is still a very viable market - but I don't think we're going to see "iPhone" numbers on the watch any time soon. Very respectable numbers within its category - but not as strong of a pillar.

 

[Zmmyt]

I see where he is coming from. It's a new class of product and I am personally waiting to see what Watch 2.0 will look like. After years of iPhone update cycles I have a rough idea what the next iPhone will look like. When it comes to the watch though, it's completely new territory.

I don't want to buy a watch today and feel disappointed in September (?) when Watch 2.0 is released and it's immensely better speced and looking.

 

[ironpw]

The Garmin's Fenix 3 is a superior product. Apple needs to take notes on that design and functionality.

 

[pixelements]

Makes sense. Most people who want one already have one. It doesn't appear like there is a big reason to upgrade to a V2.

Well, but there are people like me - waiting for the 2nd generation since the first iteration of prodcuts often are.. "Bad", or at least not polished.

 

[teslo]

at 40% thinner (reported next version) - plus whatever advancements to watch OS they make - i'd imagine they can keep a decent amount of interest going for this. i'm not a 'thinner is always better' guy at all - but the watch needs it. chunk factor is about an 8 out of 10, imo. it vaguely looks like an original iPhone with a strap.

 

[0815]

Apple Watch:
on Siri: Hey Siri (wait 10 seconds) set the time.. Hey Siri.. Hey.. set the timer for 5 minutes.. (wait 15 seconds)..done
on Apps: Starting up weather app.. shows old info.. wait for.. oh damn, does not work.. open other app
On glances: **** waiting... waiting ***

Apple watch needs more CPU power and faster response for it to work..
I still wear it every day though, notifications seem to do fine which i do love

Sadly this is very true and (almost) my only complaint. Battery life is fine, still have 40% when I go to bed after a long day.

 

[mattopotamus]

Well, but there are people like me - waiting for the 2nd generation since the first iteration of prodcuts often are.. "Bad", or at least not polished.

I agree. I just think there are less people in that boat. I came from android wear/pebble watches and even the first gen apple watch blows those out of the water in terms of looks and polish. The whole "use apps on your watch" is silly. That is not what a smartwatch is good at. It should just focus on delivering notifications.

 

[0007776]

This isn't surprising. The watch still seems like a product that was made because analysts said they should make it and other companies were trying it rather than because Apple had real ideas or a market for it.

 

[Glideslope]

Good. Just kill the dam thing and give us better Mac Book Pros.

 

[ConnYoungy]

Unless you want to use it as a glorified fitbit, I'm still struggling to see the real use of an Apple Watch

 

[dannys1]

I don't care about iPhone independent use, I don't use any apps on it, and the battery life is practically too good. What I would like is for them to just turn on iBeacon usage for the watch - the single more obvious use for my always wearable accessory so I don't have to carry my phone around the smarthome everywhere - come on Apple, its not a complex feature! Let ME decide what to do with all that extra battery life.

 

[friedmud]

I have Gen 1 and I will upgrade instantly as long as they do one thing: keep compatibility with the existing bands!

At this point I have more invested in bands than in the Watch itself. I would love to be able to grow a nice cache of bands and then just flip out a couple of hundred bucks every other year to upgrade the Watch.

Otherwise, I'll probably wait for Watch 3 so I can get some more use out of my bands.

We'll have to wait and see'

 

[dannys1]

Good. Just kill the dam thing and give us better Mac Book Pros.

Yeah cos thats exactly how it works...

 

[crsh1976]

Frankly this applies to the smartwatch niche as a whole, it was a fad and it's already dying. The industry is trying to find new ways to sell gizmos to the masses, and those plans are not all successful.

Unless Apple can make a new version of the watch that doesn't rely on the iPhone, has actual purpose, etc - then it may be an interesting boost. As is, if it's only thinner or adds a longer-lasting battery, it's really of no interest.