'Apple Will Sell 45M iPhones in 2009 -- for $12B of Rev'

Discussion in 'MacBytes.com News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Mar 31, 2008.

  1. macrumors bot

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    #1
  2. macrumors 601

    Krafty

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    #2
    Hopefully I'll be one of those buyers
     
  3. macrumors 68030

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    #3
    Ill be one if it has 3G, GPS, and a bigger HD ;)
     
  4. macrumors regular

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    #4
    45 millions? Yeah right. As long as they have cell phone contracts that cost more then the actual phone, no.

    Seriously, 45 million? That is REALLY bold.:rolleyes::apple:
     
  5. macrumors 65816

    stagi

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    #5
    I don't think I have ever seen anything this analyist has said come true yet, seems like he just makes stuff up. I think if they can roll out more countries, introduce 3g and maybe some new types of iphone (nano?) then maybe 25 mil next year? but 40 is pretty agressive.
     
  6. macrumors 6502

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    #6
    that a whole bunch of phones i thnk everyone n there mom will eventually have one
     
  7. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    #7
    You know, before I opened that article I thought "It's going to be a prediction by Gene 'Comedy' Munster, isn't it?"

    No surprise there then.
     
  8. macrumors 6502

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    April Fools! ;)
     
  9. macrumors 604

    gkarris

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    #9
    Was posted yesterday..

    Just like every iPod (with a screen) now has video.

    Soon, every iPod will be an iPhone!!! :eek:
     
  10. Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #10
    That all hinges on rolling out to more markets. The worldwide smartphone market was something like 120M phones per annum in 2007, and it has been growing year over year. If Apple had market share placement in all the major markets at the same level they have in the US, they would sell the 45M easily. And Apple has been converting a lot of people to smartphones that did not previously have one. Not that it'll be easy to roll out to that many markets.

    Besides which, how many phones have cell phone contracts (in countries where contracts are used) that cost less than the phone? :rolleyes: Even if you have a basic US market plan of around $40/month, when you sign a two year contract, that's $960, and two year contracts are pretty standard. Even at one year, though, that's more than most phones.
     
  11. macrumors regular

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    #11
    Article: Could Apple sell 45 million iPhones a year?

    PC Mag has an interesting article on how some believe that Apple could sell 45million iPhones.

    Sort of makes the case of my original post

    I was off by only 12 months. :D
     
  12. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    #12
    Very true given the iPhone's muted reception in the European markets which is at least partly driven by your point on pricing.
     
  13. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #13
    Actually, Munster's record is pretty good.
     
  14. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    #14
    Not really. He tends to take a scattergun approach to things so he gets some right and some wrong.

    Of course, so do most analysts.
     
  15. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #15
    No, really. Most of the analysts get almost nothing right or close. Gene Munster has been closer to the mark than virtually any of them. He's been rightfully bullish and AAPL longer than any other analyst I can think of.
     
  16. Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #16
    It'll be curious to deconvolve the factors and see what happens when there's a 3G iPhone available for Europeans... As I understand it, the phone's cost is comparable to locked competitors (e.g. a locked, contracted high-end S-E or Nokia in the UK), and a lot less than unlocked competitors, and the plans, while limited in offering compared to all plans available, are reasonably competitive to the actual plans most smartphone customers use....

    I am actually having trouble finding data on how many iPhones Apple actually sells in Europe. I know the press response was muted, but online sources seem to disagree wildly on whether or not sales in Europe are actually poor or good?
     
  17. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    So... are you saying that most analysts don't get their markets mostly right?

    Because, you know, that's not even remotely close to true.
     
  18. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #18
    I don't understand your question.
     
  19. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    The iPhone is £269 plus minimum contract in the UK. The comparable Nokias, etc are free or £50 plus contract so they're quite a bit cheaper.

    The base units are but since you can get the competitor units on any network of your choice its not an issue. Practically no-one in Europe buys an unlocked, unsubsidised unit.

    They are now, 02's initial offering was grossly uncompetitive.

    The problem is that Apple will not permit its European partners to publish exact sales amounts. Most European analysts and commentators research suggest that the sales are at the lower end of initial projections and that stimulus - such as 02's change of plan allowances - has been required to kick start demand. However, it is unlikely to have sold as much as, say, the Nokia N95 or LG Viewty.

    That's why I think 3G is a bit of a red herring and why if Apple don't address the more fundamental issues of pricing and carrier choice they may continue to struggle.
     
  20. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    OK, sorry. I guess my main point is that Munster's been lucky so far because he's a bull and Apple are a bull's dream company. However, I don't think his record shows him to be a particularly good analyst in this sector.

    In other words he's having a purple patch.
     
  21. macrumors 65816

    iTeen

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    #21
    considering they put it on verizon someday...
     
  22. macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #22
    To paraphrase GBS, if you laid all the analysts end to end, they would not reach a (meaningful) conclusion.
     
  23. Moderator emeritus

    mkrishnan

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    #23
    Ahh, thanks for all the clarifications. I wasn't aware phones like the N95 were so cheap on plans...

    That could add up to a fair difference... for comparison, I purchased my refurb iPhone for $265USD, inclusive of taxes. My T-Mobile plan is $69.74USD, also inclusive of fees and taxes. I am off contract now, but those are total charges for the services I want anyway, so I would be paying about that much a month anyway. If I changed to AT&T, their service is slightly more expensive -- their plan that is more or less equivalent (fewer minutes, fewer SMS, but their hotspot plan, which is better than T-Mobile's is now) costs $80, not inclusive of taxes and fees. So in that example, for instance, over two years, the difference in plan costs would actually be larger than the initial cost of the iPhone. To me, that means I don't really care about the iPhone's $265 price tag....

    I can see how 265 pounds would be a different matter, though.
     
  24. macrumors 68000

    BongoBanger

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    #24
    Yeah, it's initial perception. Most people don't look at the total cost of their contract (which is usually 12 or 18 months), they only look at what they pay out each month.
     
  25. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Maybe. None of these guys gets it right anywhere close to all the time, but if you look at the record, Munster has been much closer to the mark than some of the other analysts we hear from often, such as almost-never-right Shaw Wu and the consistently negative Rob Enderle.
     

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