Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

CalWizrd

Suspended
Jun 21, 2011
385
1,637
NYC/Raleigh, NC
...but it could come right back down to reality ($90/share) in 1-3 years in my opinion ...

Not very likely. Right now there is over $100 per share just in cash, with a P/E of only around 10. They would have to fall at about quadruple the rate of RIMM over the next few years to even approach a $200 share price.
 

ramuman

macrumors regular
Mar 7, 2005
222
0
Interesting that a company who simply produces 1 model of tablets, 1 model of phones, a few models of mp3 players, and a few models of overpriced computers has a market cap this high.

Apple will need to continue innovating and selling more than just 10 SKUs of products to hold this kind of value. I personally think the stock is extremely inflated. Sooner or later Apple will need to introduce some new products to hold this high value...the iPod line has been oversaturated for years...that's 25% of their product line...the iPhone and iPad can't carry Apple forever...and my guess is the iPhone has 2-3 years left before everything on the cell market is very similar to the iPhone (Android). If nothing rivals the iPad over the next few years, ok, cool....but then Apple is a company that banks its business on 1 product.

Don't get me wrong...I like Apple...they are obviously on top of the world right now....but it could come right back down to reality ($90/share) in 1-3 years in my opinion as iPhone and iPad competition increases and if Apple doesn't expand its overall Apple product lineup. I am interested in seeing what Apple has in store for tv...if they do it right, that could make Apple some big cash for 10-15 years all by itself.

$90 is absurd. That would make them less valuable than the short-term cash they have on hand. It's on a 15 PE. You're talking as if the current price overvalues the company or expects them to dramatically improve earnings to justify their valuation.
 

JHankwitz

macrumors 68000
Oct 31, 2005
1,911
58
Wisconsin
Wow! For everyone who bought stocks when Apple was $150 or so and didn't sell them yet would be very, very happy!

Imagine how Microsoft must feel. They purchased $150M of Apple stock when it was well below $10 to help Steve get it back up and running when he returned. Id' love to know what % increse they've seen.

----------

MSFT hit its peak in Dec 2007 at 350 Billion

I believe that MSFT hit $604B in December of 1999.
 

paul4339

macrumors 65816
Sep 14, 2009
1,448
732
....but it could come right back down to reality ($90/share) in 1-3 years ....

Anything is possible, but just remember that they have over $100 per share (about 18-20%) is in cash alone, and it is likely is they they'll add more to it in the short term. So in the unlikely event that they do mess up, it can drop, but probably not that low.


.
 

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,735
1,588
I f'ed up by selling around $445 after the earnings report hoping to cash in a little and buy back in after a correction. Well that never happened and I got back in at $500... Missed out on a couple G's but I guess it's better than nothing or a loss.:rolleyes::apple:

Trying to time the market there. Not a very good idea. Though with Apple, I've been tempted to do the same as I used to think there was a consistent dip in the stock after major announcements (like man, the iPad is just a big iPhone, is that all they've got . . . and stock goes down). It seemed like the traders were only going to buy after an announcement that they understood and they didn't understand that what Apple was announcing was really pretty incredible.
 

nickelt

macrumors member
Apr 23, 2009
94
0
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

ericinboston said:
Interesting that a company who simply produces 1 model of tablets, 1 model of phones, a few models of mp3 players, and a few models of overpriced computers has a market cap this high.

Apple will need to continue innovating and selling more than just 10 SKUs of products to hold this kind of value. I personally think the stock is extremely inflated. Sooner or later Apple will need to introduce some new products to hold this high value...the iPod line has been oversaturated for years...that's 25% of their product line...the iPhone and iPad can't carry Apple forever...and my guess is the iPhone has 2-3 years left before everything on the cell market is very similar to the iPhone (Android). If nothing rivals the iPad over the next few years, ok, cool....but then Apple is a company that banks its business on 1 product.

Don't get me wrong...I like Apple...they are obviously on top of the world right now....but it could come right back down to reality ($90/share) in 1-3 years in my opinion as iPhone and iPad competition increases and if Apple doesn't expand its overall Apple product lineup. I am interested in seeing what Apple has in store for tv...if they do it right, that could make Apple some big cash for 10-15 years all by itself.

After owning a bunch of pc's and a couple of macs i know which is by far better value. The macs may of cost a little bit more but they certainly last longer and had not even close to as many problems as the pcs that i have had. Overpriced? Not by a long way!
 

ericinboston

macrumors 68020
Jan 13, 2008
2,005
476
Don't quit your job to become a day trader.

It's arguable about how long Apple can keep up its amazing increases in sales and profits, but $90/share is an insane number baring something like a world war.

Apple's P/E at today's share price is ~15.

I don't trade stock...and frankly am not a fan of the Stock Market Casino.

I've seen and been at plenty of companies for the past 30 years that are $10 one year and $300 a few years later and back down to $15 years later.

For those of you who want to day trade and lock your money into 1 company or daydream about hitting the lottery/Apple stock lottery...great. Have fun.

Am I wrong or have we seen a rollercoaster ride a few times in Apple's history? Will it nosedive next year? Who knows....it's up to Apple to make money.

Let's also remember that in this high tech environment, Apple CLEARY does not sell to businesses. Apple sells to consumers. Fine. Great. Apple is a consumer electronics company. But unlike Bose and Sony (for example) Apple sells zippo to businesses. Therefore, Apple is (for better or worse) 100% reliant on consumers.

Apple has a few products and sells 100% to consumers...in my book that's either a great bet or a bad bet...depending on the year. iTunes and iPod is 10 years old. <yawn>. iPhone is on version 4 (I see iPhone following the same boring steps as iPod gen 4 and newer). iPad is coming on 3 and I am excited for this. Mac is not Apple's concentration but Apple is happy to make a hefty profit on those who like a sexy-looking computer. And let's face it, Mac will never have any kind of high marketshare (say 25% or higher) mainly because it simply does not live in the business world (please don't chime in about your 5-person company that is all Mac), does not have business applications, and fails to have any kind of business-class support/tech support.

I'm not spelling doom and gloom...but just getting people to think a bit more about what Apple has (as far as we know) in its product line and Apple's extremely high value right now.
 

lkrupp

macrumors 68000
Jul 24, 2004
1,873
3,795
The important thing is that AAPL is now closing in on being worth twice as much as MSFT this year.
 

nickelt

macrumors member
Apr 23, 2009
94
0
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

foodog said:
Congratulations. There is still a way to go before Apple becomes the most valuable company of all time, but that is certainly possible (I think Microsoft was worth over $600 billion at one time).

MSFT hit its peak in Dec 2007 at 350 Billion

They hit their peak in 99 at over 600b
 

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,735
1,588
Imagine how Microsoft must feel. They purchased $150M of Apple stock when it was well below $10 to help Steve get it back up and running when he returned. Id' love to know what % increse they've seen.


Wow, if they kept that stock all the way until now, it would worth $7.8 billion. That is at the point were it would actually be a not insignificant amount of Microsoft's market cap.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,835
7,396
Anything is possible, but just remember that they have over $100 per share (about 18-20%) is in cash alone, and it is likely is they they'll add more to it in the short term.

.

Yes, probably starting Friday March 16 at 6pm if history is any guide.

Apple is up $140 per share since Jan. alone. Mind boggling until you realize Apple is managed better than any other company in the world right now and its track record doesn't look to slow down in the near term for sure.
 

BobbyRond

macrumors regular
Dec 13, 2011
139
0
The Hague, The Netherlands
Apple's cashpile of nearly 1 billion is so much, yet seems so small compared to 500 billion... Just count the zero's on this puppy... --> 500,000,000,000 :cool:

EDIT: Never mind this post, I'm stupid. XD
 
Last edited:

SPUY767

macrumors 68020
Jun 22, 2003
2,041
131
GA
MSFT hit its peak in Dec 2007 at 350 Billion

Actually, MSFT hit its peak right before the market collapse at 492b, adjusted price of 58.72. IIRC

Edit:

MSFT: $117.438, 4.195B Shares December 24, 1999 Mkt Cap: $492.065B

CSCO: $79.375, 5.39B Shares March 24, 2000 Mkt Cap: $427.83B

INTC: $72.938, 5.0B Shares August 25, 2000 Mkt Cap: $364.69B

Edit Again: I derped, I used 1999-2000 prices but present day shared outstanding.
 
Last edited:

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,735
1,588
Interesting that a company who simply produces 1 model of tablets, 1 model of phones, a few models of mp3 players, and a few models of overpriced computers has a market cap this high.

Apple will need to continue innovating and selling more than just 10 SKUs of products to hold this kind of value. I personally think the stock is extremely inflated. Sooner or later Apple will need to introduce some new products to hold this high value...the iPod line has been oversaturated for years...that's 25% of their product line...the iPhone and iPad can't carry Apple forever...and my guess is the iPhone has 2-3 years left before everything on the cell market is very similar to the iPhone (Android). If nothing rivals the iPad over the next few years, ok, cool....but then Apple is a company that banks its business on 1 product.

Don't get me wrong...I like Apple...they are obviously on top of the world right now....but it could come right back down to reality ($90/share) in 1-3 years in my opinion as iPhone and iPad competition increases and if Apple doesn't expand its overall Apple product lineup. I am interested in seeing what Apple has in store for tv...if they do it right, that could make Apple some big cash for 10-15 years all by itself.

Possibly some of the worst analysis ever.
There is no possibility of $90 per share in 1 to 3 years unless iOS is proven to cause cancer when you look at it. Apple will come back down to earth when it no longer has a dominate position in the smartphone market. As long they can make a compelling smartphone that they can sell at a great margin, they will make boat loads of cash.

The only way the TV market can be the win for Apple that iPad, iPhone and iPad have been is if they can make such a good product that they can sell that at a high margin as well. So far, all they've been able to do is sell $100 hockey pucks.
 

TallManNY

macrumors 601
Nov 5, 2007
4,735
1,588
Apple's cashpile of nearly 1 billion is so much, yet seems so small compared to 500 billion... Just count the zero's on this puppy... --> 500,000,000,000 :cool:

Uhh, Apple's cash pile is 100 billion. Same number of zeros.
 

jonnysods

macrumors G3
Sep 20, 2006
8,426
6,892
There & Back Again
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; CPU iPhone OS 5_0_1 like Mac OS X) AppleWebKit/534.46 (KHTML, like Gecko) Mobile/9A405)

I should sell my single share!!
 

nickelt

macrumors member
Apr 23, 2009
94
0
Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

SPUY767 said:
MSFT hit its peak in Dec 2007 at 350 Billion

Actually, MSFT hit its peak right before the market collapse at 492b, adjusted price of 58.72. IIRC

Wrong and wrong.
 

lkrupp

macrumors 68000
Jul 24, 2004
1,873
3,795
Imagine how Microsoft must feel. They purchased $150M of Apple stock when it was well below $10 to help Steve get it back up and running when he returned. Id' love to know what % increse they've seen.

----------



I believe that MSFT hit $604B in December of 1999.

Enough with the FUD about Microsoft saving Apple! Apple was NOT near bankrupt when Steve came back. They were in big trouble, no doubt about that, but not anywhere near insolvency. Microsoft's purchase of non voting stock did NOT "save" Apple. It was a small token to show continued support as well as continuing to develop Office for the Mac. $150 million was pocket change for both companies at the time. Gates and Jobs also resolved the patent issues festering between them. Steve Jobs saved Apple, not Bill Gates.
 

Chupa Chupa

macrumors G5
Jul 16, 2002
14,835
7,396
Let's also remember that in this high tech environment, Apple CLEARY does not sell to businesses. Apple sells to consumers.


Oh really...

1

2

3

4

Plenty more where that came from. The iPad is taking enterprise by storm. It's why Windows 8 will be made with tablets in mind b/c the iPad is a huge threat to Windows in a way the Mac OS never could.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.