Calling all football psychics

Discussion in 'Community Discussion' started by jefhatfield, Jan 25, 2006.

  1. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #1
    let's say i place $250 dollars down on the steelers to win the superbowl by 14 points in a bet against a friend (who is a real football stats freak)

    if they lose, i lose all and he keeps the $250

    if they win, but by 13 points or less, i still lose all and he keeps the $250

    if they win, by at least 14 points, then i win $6250

    is it worth it? i could use a new used work truck for my businesses
     
  2. WildCowboy Administrator/Editor

    WildCowboy

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2005
    #2
    If you can afford to lose the $250, I would definitely say to go for it. Where else in life do you have a reasonable chance of making 2400% in one day?

    Your chances are much less than 50/50, so plan on losing the $250. But it could certainly work out in your favor, which would be tremendous, obviously.

    Now, if it were betting $25 to get $625, I'd be all over it. $250 is a bit steep for me, but I don't know what your financial situation is.
     
  3. katie ta achoo macrumors G3

    Joined:
    May 2, 2005
    #3
    Kt's future predictor/fortune cookie fortune writing machine says:
    Money will exchange hands.

    I GUARANTEE 100% THIS PREDICTION.

    :)


    Go for it! If you lose, you can always pick up a lotto ticket on the way home from the super bowl party and try your luck on that.
     
  4. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #4
    i am not a football expert but i am reasonably versed in it...hint, the seahawks have been great in the regular season and even greater in the playoffs so far...and i have some graduate school math background in statistics

    everything i know, as far as numbers, and football for this season, makes the odds of me winning about 500 to 1 on a bad day and slightly better on a good day!!

    i don't like to throw money away and even $25 dollars on scratchers (which are a better bet than a 14 point steelers win) is scary for me...$250 is a literal donation of mass proportions ;)

    if i was a millionaire, i would go for it, but then again if i were that rich then i could buy a $6000 dollar used truck as easily as i could buy a bag of potato chips
     
  5. macbaseball macrumors 6502a

    macbaseball

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2005
    Location:
    Northern California
    #5
    I wouldn't take it. I think the Steeler's will win, but a 14 point spread is huge. The Sportscenter guys are saying it's going to be a close game. BTW, in which part of Monterey do you live?
     
  6. Kwyjibo macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

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    Nov 5, 2002
    #6
    giving 14 points is very generous ... I'd give him 7 max
     
  7. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #7
    carmel by the sea, 4400 people or so, 1900 actual...mostly out of town owners of the houses leading high school students here, very bored mind you, to break in and party but leave the house at the end of the weekend cleaner than they found it ;)
     
  8. clayj macrumors 604

    clayj

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    Jan 14, 2005
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    visiting from downstream
    #8
    Then his friend would almost certainly lower the payout by a LARGE percentage... it sounds like he's willing to pay 25:1 based on the huge point spread.

    I'd take that action, but ONLY if I could afford to lose the $250.

    Oh, and also if I was sure he was good for the $6000 if I won the bet. (That's not chump change.)
     
  9. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #9
    i found out from a lottery person that vegas makes its living with bets like this...it sounds like a viable bet, without doing real research, but actually there are enough suckers out there to take the bait and make it well worth the $6000 loss

    some major houses in vegas pay out five dollars for every six dollars that come in...but enough to post a $700,000 dollars gross profit at the end of the night
     
  10. ziwi macrumors 65816

    ziwi

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    Jan 6, 2004
    Location:
    Right back where I started...
    #10
    Steeler's are currently a 4 point favorite.
    The last couple Superbowls have been pretty close thanks to parity. I think no way do the Steeles win by 14.

    Perhaps split the difference and get a 1200% return for say a 7 or 8 point spread. ;)
     
  11. 2nyRiggz macrumors 603

    2nyRiggz

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    Location:
    Thank you Jah...I'm so Blessed
    #11
    Don't mean to break your heart but i think Seahawks is going to walk out with their 1st title.....seven point win.


    Bless
     
  12. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #12
    sports, economics, psychic predictions, basically fall into an exponential pattern so a 7 or 8 point win might garner me $100 bucks profit, 9 points maybe a grand, and 14 points 6 grand+
     
  13. Kwyjibo macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    #13
    you're definitely right ... for some reason I thought he was taking like 600 instead of 600 ... the truck didn't make sense but its been a long day for me.

    my general advice remains the same ... I don't see the steelers winning by more than 7 if they win. Part of me would like to see the NFC contend just so the AFC teams stop being so uppity
     
  14. BearRanger macrumors member

    BearRanger

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    May 23, 2005
    Location:
    Deep in the Woods
    #14
    It's all about what you can afford to lose, as others have said.

    Keep in mind, the betting line (Steelers +4) is designed to get people to bet EQUALLY on both sides. This is to hedge the bets of the house, so that they come out ahead no matter who wins. The line will change if the betting for one side or the other gets too far out of hand. In the regular season, a team with the home field advantage would be given a +3. The betting line MAY reflect this in the proximity of Detroit to Pittsburgh, even though it's supposedly a neutral field. So the +4 on the game may not be that impressive.

    I know you said you don't know that much about football. In my opinion (and it's just my opinion) there is no way I would take that bet. The point differential is unrealistic, given what we know about the two teams. On paper the two teams seem evenly matched. IF the betting line really does give a home field advantage to the Steelers, the Vegas boys think so too.

    Now, the psychic part. The Seahawks will win outright. Since it's a psychic prediction no logic is required. But if you need a reason, it all comes down to pass defense.

    Finally, it's sports. It's meant to be entertainment. If betting on the game is going to cause you to stress over it instead of having fun, I say let it pass.
     
  15. grapes911 Moderator emeritus

    grapes911

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    Citizens Bank Park
    #15
    I love to bet on sports, especial football. I don't make huge wagers, but win more than I lose. There are a few rules whn betting on football. One of the biggest rules is except for extreme cases, never give up more than 7 points. Football is a sport of parody. It is rare to have a blowout especially in big games. If the line is more than 7, then you should probably stay away.

    I've been doing my research on this game so I can make my bet. I've noticed that the underdog has covered the last 4 years. I expect a close game this year. I'm actually leaning to a teaser bet by picking a winner and an over/under. I'm think going to buy some points for Seattle at a plus 7.5. I see no reason why they can't cover that. They have a very underrated defense, one of the best running backs in the league, and a QB that can win a game in the air if need be.

    In short, I think you are making a big mistake with this bet. I'm not going to say the Steelers can't win by 14, but it would go recent against history.
     
  16. Sushi7 macrumors newbie

    Sushi7

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2006
    #16
    Hi,

    Well the main question is: Have you mostly been lucky in your life or not?
    If you know quite a bit on football and you know that the team you are betting on is good, it might be a very good try! You will only lose 250$ but on the otherhand you will win 6250$! You say that you could use a new used work truck for your businesses.. It is a point and if I was you, I would get down on it and bet! If money is extremely valuable to you then just think a little bit before doing it...

    I hope I was helpful
    Sushi7 ;)
     
  17. e²Studios macrumors 68020

    e²Studios

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    Apr 12, 2005
    #17
    We already know the Seahawks will win, thats a suckers bet ;)

    Ed
     
  18. Mr. Durden macrumors 6502a

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    Jan 13, 2005
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    Colorado
    #18
    I guess first off I'd recommend that if you can afford to lose the bet, go ahead and take it. Its a terrible idea to try to make money by risking money you need to keep.

    I would look at it his way (this is more of a poker strategy than a sports betting strategy, but its what I know. And keep in mind that this is pretty fuzzy math):

    It costs you $250 to try to win over $6000. Divide the 250 into 6000 and you get 24. So if you took this bet 24 times, you would need to win once to break even. Do you think that if they played 24 times Pittsburgh would cover that spread more than once? If you answer "yes", take the bet. If you answer "no", dont take the bet.

    Thats worked out well for me in playing poker. Wether or not it actually stands up to mathmatical scrutiny, I dont know...

    By the way, Pittsburgh is going to KILL seattle. I would take a 20 point spread with that bet. The AFC is easily the superior league, and Pittsburgh rolled over the #1, #2, and #3 seeds in the playoffs. Seattle's only hope is that Pittsburgh's plane goes down on the way to Detroit.
     
  19. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    A geographical oddity
    #19
    I just have to ask the question. But for the (somewhat) recent realignment, Seattle is in the AFC. How do the AFC-lovers/haters react to that. By the way, I don't have the cash - and my wife would never let my bet that much - but I would put my money on the Steelers in this game. Call it a gut feeling. But, I wouldn't make the bet until closer to gametime. I don't trust practice injuries....
     
  20. WildCowboy Administrator/Editor

    WildCowboy

    Staff Member

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    #20
    I find it amusing that Seattle fought so hard to keep from being moved to the NFC, but lost out. And now then in a Super Bowl where they're an underdog to the sixth-seed in the AFC. If Seattle had still been in the AFC, there's no way they make the Super Bowl, and maybe not even the playoffs.
     
  21. Mr. Durden macrumors 6502a

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    Colorado
    #21
    That further proves my point. Seattle would have been abused by everyone in the AFC playoffs, and probably wouldnt have been able to make the playoffs had they remained in the AFC. The chargers and the Chiefs would have also man-handled the Seahawks and they couldnt make the cut for the playoffs. Seattle was a "Good" team for a few years in the AFC, but put them in the NFC and they darn near go undefeated (14-2 I think).
     
  22. grapes911 Moderator emeritus

    grapes911

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    #22
    What does that have to do with the price of peas in china? Since 2002, Seattle has been in the NFC. Why would anyone care? They are in the NFC and they proved to the the best team that conference. What's to react to? And I can't believe that anyone could love or hate a whole conference.
     
  23. nbs2 macrumors 68030

    nbs2

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    #23
    The posts above yours are what what I was asking about. People generally believe that one conference or another is dominant at any given point in time (for example, the NFC through the 1980s/90s).

    There are two ways to look at Seattle:
    1) They are a weak AFC team in the NFC and thus their 1 seed is worth less than Pittsburgh's 6 seed, as they would never make the playoffs in the AFC. The overall weakness of the NFC this year is the only reason they made the playoffs and SB (that and the Bears forgot how to play defense and any WR can only do so much).
    2) They are a legit AFC caliber team, which is why they ran over the NFC and haven't lost at home this year. They may not have won the AFC, but they still would have been good enough to make the playoffs and are a better team than Pittsburgh.

    Three years isn't very long, even in the NFL. That's why anyone may care, but you are right, this doesn't have anything to do with the price of peas (in China or elsewhere).
     
  24. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #24
    i think that seattle is probably a little better than pittsburgh but they seem closely matched in most areas so the betting line is almost even...but right now with the slight edge to pittsburgh because they have momentum, nothing to lose having been the last seed, and location (closer to home)

    even if pittsburgh is "4" points better than seattle, it would probably take 25 games played before pittsburgh could carry a 14 or more point win over seattle...and like has been stated, recent history does not show blowouts and i think the lack of an aikman, emmett smith, or joe montana type superlegendheroboy goes a long way to explaining this

    so the guy/house/vegas who is willing to lay $6250 on the line on the bet will probably win and take my $250 dollars if i decided to bet (hypothetically)
     
  25. Applespider macrumors G4

    Applespider

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    looking through rose-tinted spectacles...
    #25
    Ask the Magic 8 ball or go with your gut. If you don't regret the $250 go for it, since you'll kick yourself if it happens. Bear in mind that no-one thought that the Steelers would trample over Denver by so much or be so many points clear of the Colts.
     

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