do you think howard dean is going to get the nomination?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jefhatfield, Dec 27, 2003.

  1. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #1
    last year i heard a lot of buzz about edwards from north carolina

    then much more recently, clark seemed like the great spoiler

    but now that things are getting ready for the primaries in early to mid 2004, i think howard dean will be the man to beat...personally he is not my choice but he has the momentum at the right time and he is not in danger of running out of money too early like other candidates have in past primaries

    now beating bush will be a harder task and november 2004 is a long ways away but what i think dean can use on his side are the lingering war, the sluggish economy of the greater part of W's presidential term, and the weak way the president came into the white house in the first place

    i have always had a feeling that he was keeping his popularity by the skin of his teeth...assuming that he had any real popularity

    with ronald reagan and bill clinton, both men seemed very popular with america through most of their terms and i just don't get the same type of feeling with mr. W:p
     
  2. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #2
    Interesting story in today's LA Times about Dean's resilience. I don't know if this bodes well for the Democrats in the general election, but it seems that Dean is unusually impervious to self-inflicted wounds, or from attacks from the competition.

    More...
     
  3. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    reagan seemed quite popular and teflon like and he escaped being in office for eight years without being hated by any large segment of society

    many here may not remember, but he had this strange tendency to be blunt and put his foot in his mouth like howard dean...and like dean, he seemed to get away with it...some people can lead this way and constantly be forgiven

    this tendency to be blunt works well with uneducated and/or unskilled voters who may also be very poor and frustrated with their personal situation, but it is not really the best way to lead a country as the commander in chief having to oversee so many sections of administration which runs our great and vast country

    as much as i don't like george w bush, and as much as some republicans didn't like bill clinton, neither man was blunt and both were smart enough to keep their feet out of their mouths compared to loose cannons of their times, such as newt gingrich, and now howard dean

    i do not believe our president to be a smart man, and i was waiting for the seasoned, very intelligent al gore to rip bush to shreds in the presidential debates of 2000, but after it was said and done, bush did not make any stupid or blunt statements and he was very careful and came across as a seasoned and wise politician...very few people thought that al gore beat bush in those debates and many thought that the bush held his own against an obviously much smarter and more experienced opponent

    i think if howard dean wins the nomination, he will be able to say anything in a debate against bush and have large segments of the american society agree with him...it will be an interesting time next summer and fall
     
  4. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Bush may not be blunt, but he does have a bad habit of making poorly considered statements in unguarded moments, not to mention some howlingly nonsensical ones when he's not on script. That's why he's rarely off-script these days. Gore failed to mop the floor with Bush in the 2000 debates because Gore has always come across like an escapee from the Home for Career Politicians. The man just isn't very personable, and if he's got a human side, it's buried beneath a thick veneer of polished politician. People can read that a mile away, and rightly or wrongly, interpret it as phoniness.

    This is why Dean is doing so well, I think. Just as a lot of people are willing to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt if only because his propensity for verbal gaffs make him look more human, Dean's supporters seem to find his shoot-from-the hip style a refreshing change from Gore's practiced slickness. It is so hard to predict how this would play outside of the Democratic party.
     
  5. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    I think Howard Dean will get the nomination but will loose in the election against George, this is the problem with the Democratic party, they want to elect a very left candidate( on most things) if you will for the parties nomination and then have to race & sell this left winger to mainstream America. Howard Dean is saying a lot of things and in the process is giving the GOP lots of ammo for the election. He has to move to the middle if he wants to be president and i dont see that happening. Time will tell.
     
  6. DavisBAnimal macrumors member

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    #6
    Not trying to get on you too bad, but this is a personal pet peeve of mine:

    Howard Dean may have signed a Civil Union bill, and may be very vocally opposed to the Iraq war, but he is in no way a leftist liberal. Dean is an incredibly moderate candidate - he's pro-death penalty (a big big no no in even the moderate left), anti-increased gun control, insanely occupied with balanced budgets (in contrast to the free wheeling tax and spend attitude stereotypical of my leftists), pro-increased defense spending, on and on. I think this is really why the Republicans need to be careful in hoping Dean wins the nomination: Dean has somehow earned a reputation as a left-winger, something which has propelled him through the pre-primary season, giving him enough momentum to most likely win the nomination, but his record shows that he is moderate enough to pose a serious threat to Bush with the large portion of independant voters. The true leftists in this debate - Kucinich, Braun and Sharpton - have already been marginalized, with the press pulling out reporters and the like, and that's to be expected.

    If the Republicans are hoping to win, they need to be careful in labeling Dean a liberal and going after him from that standpoint, because his record shows an entirely different candidate - a compromising, fiscally conservative moderate, with an insanely rabid following. I'm still not sure where I'd put my money, but with Dean as the nom, I hardly think the election is in the bag.
     
  7. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #7
    here's an exercise for you, to demonstrate that you actually know what you're talking about. i suspect, however, that you'll ignore it, thus demonstrating that you're clueless, or fail, demonstrating the same thing.

    the exercise:

    examine dean's platform. for at least 5 positions, demonstrate how that position is 'very left'. contrast that to a centrist position and a rightist position.

    good luck.
     
  8. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    you are absolutely correct...i believe dean would have to move to the middle more...but then again, i am a conservative democrat so my tastes are for a fiscal conservative to win the democratic nomination

    i can see myself voting for a liberal, left on the dem party leaning, democrat, but i will do so very reluctantly...i don't like the idea of big government, except maybe in health care and a strong anti terrorist department in the intelligence community and the military, but i would find a traditional big government democrat the lesser of two evils if it was between him and george w bush

    i much prefer a joe lieberman type of democrat who is fiscally conservative but strong on defense and willing to rout out terrorists...to some in the democratic party, he seems like a republican, but i have been accused of being a republican by many a liberal...i am former cia and dod, born again christian, went to mba school, and most importantly i was an entrepreneur from a family of entrepreneurs who adored nixon and ford...yet i am a democrat, but a conservative one who has felt that the neo conservatives have ditched us business types and gone off into the side dishes of racism, xenophobia, and false religion

    i am not saying the democratic party is much better (look at byrd), but between the two choices, an ambitious self employed business person interested in long term economic growth (clinton holds the record in us history) is better off with the democratic party...at least these days

    and i know things can change very fast as they have in my life...i too adored nixon and ford and when i saw reagan becoming more interested in social issues and less interested in the checkbook (he overspent on defense and put us in a defecit twice that of jimmy carter) then i realized the gop went off to different pastures to try and capture a different more religious and blue collar vote....but it was basically a ploy but in doing so, many educated business people moved to the left and voted clinton in...college educated business people voted for mondale and dukakis but they still didnt make a major difference at the polling places...college graduates still only consitute a quarter of the adult population and it was considerably less in mondale and dukakis' time

    but the gop knew the biggest demographic was the blue collar worker and reagan, very brilliantly, spoke to them and got their vote yet still made the funds stay with the rich through personal and corporate tax cuts...it is the biggest instance of wool being pulled over the voters' eyes that i can recall and the worker got screwed:p
     
  9. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #9
    on which issues?

    where does dean fall on that scale?
     
  10. DavisBAnimal macrumors member

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    #10
    Yeah I'm going to have to agree with Zim here. Jeff, if you're a fiscal conservative (and more power to you for that!) I highly suggest you take a closer look at Dean - he may be your man (even more so than a Lieberman).

    PS - Zim, is that 'tar of yours a Duchamp Ready-Made?
     
  11. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    personally i would like to sit down with the man and hear what he has to say in private...is he a blue dog democrat like me who is fiscally conservative?...clinton took republican ideas, who the republicans couldn't withold, called them his own and made a new type of democrat...fiscally conservative and socially moderate...aka blue dog democrat which includes many former republicans and independents that reagan captured in 80 and 84

    dean is trying to make a stance and be very against the president on the war and he does appear to be as vocal as the barbara boxers of the democratic left as opposed to the liebermans of the democratic middle...the other democrats are taking a more moderate view towards the war and thus attacking dean as too liberal...but then again, this could be spin and dean could be the target of other dems calling dean too left because dean is the front runner...and the best way to take down a front runner is to call him too far left or too far right

    if dean does not prove to be that far left and is really a moderate to conservative democrat, like clinton was, then i think george bush is in real big trouble:p
     
  12. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #12
    i kind of see him as a left of leftist type of populist willing to say anything

    but i will go to his website and do some searches on him

    i do, in the end, want a democrat in the white house ;)

    gwb has been a disaster and the only good thing he did, imho, was take out most of al qaeda in afganistran, take down the taliban who conspired to hide bin laden, and go after bin laden and continue to look for him...then gwb stunned me by going after saddam before he caught bin laden and the war in iraq seemed to be more of a diversion in order to try and up his popularity rating

    but as the war drags on and americans are picked off day by day with no end in sight, i think overall the war has hurt bush more than it has helped him
     
  13. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #13
    you be the judge. from his website, here

    i'd say that's a fair bet
     
  14. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #14
    yes! well done.
     
  15. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #15
    hey, zimv20, thanks for the link...i know my comments and beliefs tend to favor the more conservative posters in this section most of the time, but as a democrat (barely maybe as some may claim), i will try and look at howard dean fairly

    i will read through it and i have already read the main home page

    fiscal responsibility and returning jobs to the middle class does sound moderate
    universal health care does sound liberal
    new simplified tax system does sound conservative

    those are just initial thoughts on first read...but i will bookmark dean's site

    btw...the one really liberal stance i seem to have is universal health care but i do recognize that to "usually" be the domain of the lefter part of left ;)
     
  16. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    I just got to talk to my sister over Xmas, she flew back to Iowa last night where she is working for the Gephardt campaign. She was saying that Dean's campaign staff is using a lot of nasty, heavy handed tactics in Iowa, twisting a lot of arms and generally being obnoxious in their quest for an Iowa victory. There seems to be a good deal of animosity between the campaigns of Dean and everyone else. I suppose that's typical of a primary and they'll all kiss and make up later when it comes down to one candidate, but it seems Dean has the win-at-all-costs attitude that people seem to like in their leaders. Dean is the man to beat at the moment, but Iowa is only a small cog in the election machine. New Hampshire and SC will probably be more telling, and hopefully after Iowa the field of 9 will shrink a little further.
     
  17. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    I would rather not thank you, but here is some for you since you seem to be the quintessential democrat, show me how raising taxes will make me happy?this isnt left? afterall he said he would repeal bush's tax give back program?i work hard for my money id like to keep more, also show me how making the nuclear family Adam and Steve a legal marriage is going to help America?this isnt left? also i'd be interested on how leaving a mass murderer like Saddam who was paying people to blowthemselves up in Israel is going to be good for the U.S let alone the rest of the world? Universal Health care sounds good but who is going to pay for all that Govt waste? god i dont want Govt managing anything except war its the only thing they are good at and spending my tax dollars, lets see what else the Al gore thing was in very bad taste since he isnt the nominee yet and Lieberman who i like wasnt told though they were running mates last time??? also all the anti war stuff while we are at war makes me sick as a U.S. veteran so in other words i dont hear much coming out of his mouth that i like. Lieberman would be my choice but i dont think its going to happen. but i do still like to read your anti gop stuff zimv20.:)
     
  18. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #18
    i only got through the first third or so (i recommend punctuation and white space), but it's enough for me to declare that you've FAILED.

    if you'd bothered to even look at dean's website, you'd see that he plans on shifting tax burden from individuals back to corporations.

    link

    and just for you:
     
  19. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #19
    I did check out his site, thanks to you and found something that interested me. The moving of all our factories to everywhere there is cheap labor. This is a situation that needs some balance. for example a family member is a cosultant for some BIG companies ( including Apple ) and all these guys are moving everything to elsewhere. So we have American companies leaving the U.S. Dean says he against all of this but really who is making this happen?? its the Democrats and the Republicans who are both selling us out. we are building China's military and dont think we are not. yeah i know we have a world economy but what ever happened for looking out for America? I dont see either party doing for Americans, i see 2 parties who cant stand the other and will stop at nothing when it dont suite their agenda even if its bad for America as a whole.
    Tom Ridge wants to now legalize millions of illegals? Didnt those clowns just pass the Patriot act? looking for the mexican vote? what have both parties been doing about this while fighting one another?, Democrats want to change the meaning of marriage to suite their gay agenda? why not leave it alone and give gays some other legal union? thats why iam a independent because both parties suck and are running down America in their own selfish ways.
    I know there are people that can only see Democrat( such as yourself) just as there are people that can only see Republican, what we need are people that can see America. How many millions and millions are going to be spent this election on spinning what the other side says. I say ban all of their damn parties. After all its the corporations who are running the show and they give to both so what they want gets passed and in the end a little more of America is lost. sorry for the rant and please no more comments on silly puctuation or spelling after all this is a rumor site not a spelling bee and Apple has given me this black keyboard and i have a dark room.
     
  20. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #20
    Can you really elect a man who wont stand in front of Bill O'rielly? all the other Democrats have but i have not seen Dean. why is that Zimv20
     
  21. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #21
    It's very difficult to read what you have to say. If you don't care if anyone can fight through what you type, then by all means don't change. But don't expect anyone to read your jumble either.
     
  22. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #22
    Why would he know?

    I wouldn't go on O'Reilly's show either. I wouldn't pay him the honour or waste my time with the likes of his little show.
     
  23. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #23
    Come on Bill is fair and yeah he will drill em whats wrong with that? Rosie went on and i think she enjoyed it. Howard Dean is the only one who wont? again why? if he wants my vote he needs to stand up for whatever it is he thinks but if he cant do that with Bill then i dont want em as my president.
     
  24. jefhatfield thread starter Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #24
    i much prefer crossfire and i really have not seen o'reilly enough to know exactly what he stands for other than that he tends to be right wing, but not as much as novak and carlson

    but i think the crossfire guys take the more extreme right and left wing positions to have a very good debate which compares and contrasts the two sides for clarity, and yes, entertainment

    i listen to crossfire's bill press on the radio and his stances are not as far left as when i hear him on crossfire

    as far as o'reilly, i don't know of anybody i talk politics with in my town, and that is a lot of people, who ever listen to him...is he that important? and why would you judge a presidential candidate on someone like him and his show?...what about rush, dr. laura schlesinger, jim hightower, crossfire, cspan or any other much more well known political tv or radio entity?
     
  25. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #25
    he will ask him the tough questions and then we get to see the real Dean, the circus thats making the rounds right now is nothing more then that. id like to see him answer some good questions and see the real man. I dont go for the party crap either way but O'reilly is one of if not the highest rated news show. come on Dean step up to the plate. being President will be a lot lot tougher then a 1 hr news show. It would be a good opportunity for him to get out his views and what he thinks. National TV, Free publicity.
     

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