You're right, there's always been a constant 'we're reaching the end/limits of lithography and Moore's law' but now it really is getting to its limits. Beyond 5nm which is only a couple generations away it really stops being feasible both physically and economically to go any smaller. I have absolute faith technology won't stop and things will keep pushing forward with stacked transistors, better chip design, new cooling techniques, different semiconductor materials, better efficiency, higher frequencies and so on. But the days of shrinking transistors is coming to an end, we will just change directions. NAND flash cells are evolving in new ways with vertical stacking for example rather than shrinking them. 14>10>7>5 will probably be about the limit. Even the latest reports don't believe we can keep going much beyond that. But ingenuity and huge demand will create new solutions.
Better multithreaded programming really needs to keep improving too.
Agreed... I keep thinking that we'll find a way to use electron spin and subatomic particles to further the law.
The thing that impressed me was the growing of transistors on layers other than the Silicon base layer. That lets the chips go where they never have gone before: vertical. In that way, the lines can be shorter (instead of having the RAM farm in a certain area, it can just be above the processing area).
Now, as an outsider, it's interesting to see what the engineers come up with, and I know they have the pressure to keep Moore's law.
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Those 26 years you weren't dealing with quantum laws of nature.
There's definitely other tricks to use, but there is a fundamental limit to how small something can be.
So, what is stuff made of?
~400 BC - Atomos - Democritus
~350 BC - Earth, Wind, and Fire Aristotle (a fan of disco). Oh yeah, Water left the band early to go solo.
1869 - Atoms of different weights - Mendeleev
1897 - Electrons and other stuff - Johnson
1911 - Electrons and Protons - Rutherford
1913 - Electrons are particles that orbit the nucleus of Protons - Bohr
1926 - Electrons move in a wave form - Schrodinger (and his cat... or not)
1931 - Electrons, Protons, and Neutrons - Chadwick/Rutherford
1964 - Crap... Protons, and Neutrons are made up of other stuff... What about electrons? NO! (well, maybe no) - Mann/Zweig
2017 - ???
Sources:
http://particleadventure.org/scale.html
http://cstl-csm.semo.edu/cwmcgowan/ch181/atomhist.htm
http://www.softschools.com/timelines/atomic_theory_timeline/95/
The point I'm making is that at each point, there is the question, "how far down can we go?" and there is always one (or more) discoveries that moves that wall. I'm just open to the possibility that there is something else, while keeping in mind the laws of Nature (including subatomic Nature) that are already discovered.
As a side note, when we try to predict how things will turn out, even on things that have no "choice" in the matter, we have to predict how each of those particles will behave. That, in the context of the Chaos Theory, makes everything just a good (or not) guess. All of the wisest people that I've talked to on the subject were the first to admit that what we know would fill a library. What we don't know fills the rest of the universe.
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In fairness, sometimes technology gets ahead of itself by making predictions of where it's leading to. Take the Apple Car for example, do you have any idea how many advancements and changes will be made before 2021 will be here? A lot. Six years from now, the Apple Car could reported to fly for all we know.
Industry standards and innovations are always changing, due to efficiency and technological innovations alter the original concept, which allows the manufacturer to generate the product in a more streamlined way, assuming costs are not exhausted.
Agreed. In the post above, I put why predicting nature is hard, and predicting individual humans and groups of them is even more difficult. Just look at the 2016 choices: Bad, and Worse. Who is who depends on your point of view...