Global warming is getting scary...

Discussion in 'Community' started by groovebuster, Aug 8, 2003.

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  1. groovebuster macrumors 65816

    groovebuster

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    #1
    This summer is the advent of what's still coming in the near future regarding global warming.

    Since 5 years now here in Germany the average temperature of the year stasitically is above average and it's getting warmer every year. Since three years every months of the year was just right or too warm. This never happened since temperatures are recorded. Since a few years we have really bad storms in spring and fall I have never experienced before in my whole life. Stastically bad storms occure once every 20 years... we have them several times a year now.

    This summer is the hottest since 70 years and the dryest since weather is recorded scientifically. July in some german regions was around 7°C above average. We hardly had any rain since April and the last rain here in Berlin is about 3 weeks ago (just a few drops). Since then we had every day blue skies and around 30-35°C. In some regions farmers will lose 100% of their crop this year, not to mention the erosion because the earth is so dry that the wind is blowing it away. Wild animals are dying all over the place because it is too hot and dry.

    All over western europe they report new temperature records.

    I have to admit that my status changed from worried to scared. All this was predicted by scientists since about 20 years. And what happened??? Nothing! People just ignore it! Even on the media they just talk about how nice it is to have such beautiful weather and to go to the beach every day.

    Some countries even block every effort to reduce green house gases.

    Why humans always only act when it is too late? I have a 2 y.o. daughter and I am really worried about her future...

    At the given time no resources should be wasted for war and such a crap. All efforts should be united to at least give future generations a chance to live in a not too damaged environment. But I guess human beings are too self-centered and greedy for that! :(

    groovebuster
     
  2. crenz macrumors 6502a

    crenz

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    #2
    Yes, I agree that it is quite scary. The implications of global warming affect many areas of our lives -- new sicknesses due to different ecosystems, shortage of water in some areas (maybe even resulting in wars), bad harvests, floods, ...

    While I'm not sure how much of the global warming we can attribute to our actions (there were other periods of warming in earth's history earlier), I am appalled that we are not spending more resources on researching climate phenomenons and working on countermeasures.

    I think it is generally accepted that greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a good thing. Only few states, however, actually managed to reduce their emissions since 1990 -- Great Britain (~13%), Luxembourg and Germany. And Germany's reduction in emissions (~20%) mostly is due to reforms in the former GDR. The emissions from the former west are only reduced by a few percent -- nowhere near the 25% reduction of CO2 emissions till 2005 we wanted to achieve... So I guess Great Britain made the best effort.

    And that was the good news. For the other industrialized nations, the increase is anywhere from 3% to 30%. Just goes to show that humans don't really care until they feel the immediate effects of their actions.

    Edit: I should mention that I am talking about the western industrialized nations. Things are a bit different in Eastern Europe, but the countries that have the most emissions (and therefore have the highest impact) are still in Western Europe and Northern America.
     
  3. iJon macrumors 604

    iJon

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    #3
    guess all we can do now is were short clothes, put on some sun glasses and wear some sun screen. it is an interesting subject. i wish i knew more so i could have an educated post, ill probably end up learning from this thread.

    iJon
     
  4. Stelliform macrumors 68000

    Stelliform

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    Oct 21, 2002
    #4
    New studies are tending to think that we do not have enough recorded history to accurately determine if the feared greenhouse effect is happening. Just recently scientists have found that the sun operates in cycles of 1500 years.. And yet more discoveries show that there is also a 100,000 year cycle related to the sun.

    I personally think that we do not know enough about the Earth's climate yet to determine future trends with any certainty.

    Now on a more sympathetic note, I am sorry for the suffering Europe is going though. From what I understand it hasn't been that hot there in 50 years! Hopefully summer will be ending soon for you guys....
     
  5. Mr. Anderson Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

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    VA
    #5
    Climate change is what we're getting. Even if the average temp is rising it doesn't mean its getting warmer everywhere.

    Also, historical record from ice cores in Greenland show that climate change can drastically change in a decade. So we might be pushing for a melt down and then end up right in an ice age.....;)

    D
     
  6. scem0 macrumors 604

    scem0

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    Location:
    back in NYC!
    #6
    Its even scarier when you are on your roof re-roofing your house at 12:00 in Texas.

    Yesterday it was 106° :eek:...

    Gah - I gotta get on the roof now :eek: :rolleyes:.

    Hard Labor is Hell.

    scem0
     
  7. G4scott macrumors 68020

    G4scott

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    Location:
    Austin, TX
    #7
    That's why we have hired professionals do the job ;)

    We just had part of our roof redone, and the workers did an excellent job.

    As for global warming, I do feel that pollution could be a cause, but I also believe that we shouldn't blame everything on pollution. We don't know enough about the cycles of our planet to safely assume that the warmer temperatures we're feeling are caused by pollution and greenhouse gasses.
     
  8. scem0 macrumors 604

    scem0

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    back in NYC!
    #8
    Well, yall will be glad to know that I just sliced my leg open with a large piece of metal.

    It was the best thing ive done since roofing! 30 minutes of freedom while the cut closes up. Not very painful but VERY bloody.

    Oh well ;) - So far I am glad I did it.

    My parents are mad at Bush for not acknowledging that global warming is occuring. I guess I'm mad at him for that too.

    scem0
     
  9. Powerbook G5 macrumors 68040

    Powerbook G5

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    St Augustine, FL
    #9
    Bush is just a dolt. I too have noticed an increase of temperature, increased storms, and insane weather patterns. It's hard to say it's just from pollution since Earth's history is riddled with many sudden climatic changes, but pollution cannot help anything, either. The problem is that so many people just worry about the impact during their lifetime and can care less if what they are doing is going to cause problems for a generation or two beyond their lifespan since they'll be 6 feet under by then in the shade...
     
  10. bobindashadows macrumors 6502

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    #10
    A few things:

    1. I think that we need to cut down on greenhouse gasses.

    2. The reason it hasn't been this warm in about 40 years is because in the 60's and 70's (unsure about 50's), it was very, very cold. It's just the way things work. And there were only more cars then than in, say, the 40s.

    3. Believe it or not, there are geologists who still say that global warming isn't a real situation. I'm not sure who is right.

    4. I've read several articles that point out how humans generate more Carbon Dioxide than cars. There are more greenhouse gasses than just CO2, but the math in those articles is hard to counter. Unless you don't believe the average mileage from the DMV.

    5. The average temperature is going to change year after year. I don't know about anyone else, but in New York, you are required to take the science class "Earth Science" in order to get a Regent's diploma (necessary to get into college, pretty much). It's a useless course for 99.9% of all who take it, but it provides a lot of interesting insight. And this is where i got some of my facts. And even our teacher, who was liberal, said he has studied the facts and as for now is not convinced that global warming is a real, serious phenomenon.

    Food for thought. And remember - I said we should cut down on greenhouse gasses - only negative things can come from them - but I'm not convinced that global warming is a problem _yet_.

    Oh, and I must say - professional roofers do know what they're doing. My father has owned a roofing contracting company for 20 years, but I'm not biased! Actually, residential roofing can be harder than commercial - slanted roofs are more difficult to work with, and are often designed poorly and don't allow water drainage. Bad water drainage = lots of frozen ice stuck in the roof. My dad just did a little side (cash) job for a friend of ours - he had 2 feet of ice accumulated on the top of his roof and my dad's workers got to chop it off. Unfortunately, he thinks one of the guys chopped into the roof and now they have to go fix that :rolleyes: On commercial roofs, you have about 2 feet or so of rubber and concrete deck... don't have that kinda problem ;)

    Oh, and for my second edit, I'd like to say thank you, Mr. Anderson, for pointing that out about 5 posts before I did.
     
  11. patrick0brien macrumors 68040

    patrick0brien

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    The West Loop
    #11
    This'll raise eyebrows...

    Global Warming is not really that scary.

    Woah!

    The solution can be set in motion in an hour.

    This is one of the reasons why Gore didn't sign the Kyoto Accord, and why Bush still won't - it's solveable, and we have a solution in hand.

    The only reasons it hasn't been deployed is that Global Warming itelf hasn't been proven definitively, much less the cause of that theoretical warming, e.g. extra carbon dioxide. And further experimentation of the solution is needed, so deployment of the solution now would be irresponsibly premature on many levels.

    It's called "Iron Fertilization", you all can Goggle it.

    Yes, there are critics that state that that there may be unintended side-effects from seeding oceans with phytoplankton-feeding iron, and there needs to be further experimentation. But recent data suggests that slow and gradual periodic re-seeding will be controllable both in scope of the resultant bloom, and the affect of the local ocean's Ph levels to avoid harming the sea creatures and the chemistry of the ecosystem.

    Additionally, Iron Fertilization would only be used as a last-ditch effort if natural and other artificial solutions do not prove as effective as we wish.

    Frankly, I'm more concerned - automobile-wise - about dependance on foreign oil.
     
  12. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

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    #12
    Sorry, didn't read the entire thread (I know its relatively short :eek:), but the "hole" in the ozone layer is actually getting smaller, and is filling up again. This will give the US an excuse to create more pollution, since its filling up with the way things are now. They'll probably create pollution to the point where the hole isn't getting bigger or smaller, but staying the same size. People never actually do anything about a problem unless something is obviously wrong and harming us. If the hole is getting smaller, we need to create just enough pollution for the hole to remain status quo. We always have to sit on the brink.......directly on the edge of harm.
     
  13. patrick0brien macrumors 68040

    patrick0brien

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    #13
    -Abstract

    That's a very interesting point...
     
  14. frescies macrumors regular

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    #14
    Conveyor belt



    Climate is changing. The traditional view of global warming is, of course flawed. It would take a drastic, sudden, release of greenhouse gas to turn this planet into Venus. We have a giant ocean that acts as a buffer and will counter act a major swing in such a direction.... But with drastic consequences.

    Global warming does exist and climate is seriously changing... and we are definately a part of it. It may not seem entirely apparent at this moment to us (as humans prove to be quite adaptive to any situation). But try adapting to to a massive ecological change. A couple of degrees might not make much of a direct change to some of our lives, in a direct sense, but a single degree is a HUGE difference for our most important stabilizing force... the ocean. We don't have the attention span to pay attention to an entire century of rapid global temperature change that is greater than the change in the previous 3,000 years. Would we all be more alarmed if it happened in one day? The facts remain....

    It seems that everyone is forgetting the polar ice caps. The area covered by the polar ice caps has shrunk at a drastic rate. According to recent satellite studies performed by NASA, "Between 1978 and 2000, 1.2 million square kilometres of apparently permanent ice melted away. That is an area five times the size of Britain and represents a loss of nine per cent per decade" (http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/climate/climate.jsp?id=ns99993138)

    As ice disappears, global warming WILL speed up, for several reasons:

    1.) Polar Ice provides a resistant force to warming temperatures of the ocean, fueled by the sun.
    2.) Ice reflects most of the suns rays back into space, while the ocean absorbs more heat.
    3.) Warmer waters provide more resistance against refreezing.

    It is obvious that a point of no return exists... and is very close. Nasa scientists venture to say that the Arctic Polar Ice cap may be completely gone by 2100. So to say that there is no problem with global temperatures, "yet" is an oppinion based on no understanding of geological changes.


    Lately there has been a trend of and increase of 1.2 degrees celcius per decade in the air above the Arctic Ice caps. This is so sudden in geological time (where a decade is less than a microsecond) And we are obviously at fault. To think that this just happens to coincide with an instantaneous (in geological time) surge in industrialization is a bold statement to say the least. Not only are we pumping out trillions of tons of greenhouse gas, but Deforestation is on the incline. The brazilian rainforest (Perhaps the largest forestrial carbon sink) saw its worst acceleration in deforestation in 2000 since 1995.... a jump in 40 percent from the prior year. We are releasing enourmous amounts of carbon and destroying the precious things that absorb it. And Kyoto protocol is a little flawed in believing that planting forests to compensate for the CO2 released will fix the problem. Such a disturbance in the soil will release more CO2 than the trees that they plant can absorb in the next 10 years.

    Not to mention Ecological change. Such as the bleaching of Ocean coral, caused by a pathogen carried by a worm whos population has surged due to rising ocean temperatures. Many things rely on healthy Coral colonies (more than I have time to mention, and I don't feel like mentioning a few and leaving others out). This is one example out of hundreds.

    There is a fourth problem in regards to the polar ice caps.

    The Ocean "Conveyor Belt" Thermohaline Circulation.

    Eventually, when we melt the polar ice caps, the sea levels will rise and the earth's temperature will peak (after many things die, The food chain is destroyed and food sources will radically need to change). But the conveyor belt will stop.

    What is the "conveyor belt"?

    A massive Ocean current fueled by the polar ice caps. "Warm, shallow water is chilled in the far North Atlantic, grows saltier and sinks. The cold, salty current flows south near the bottom, creating a northward surface layer flow of the warm, less salty water" (http://www.anl.gov/OPA/frontiers/d8ee.html)

    In other words. Water near the equator (warm water) travels northward to the Arctic Ice cap. There it is cooled. Cooler water is denser and thus sinks to the bottom of the ocean. At this point the water travels back south along the bottom of the ocean to the equatorial areas where it is heated again and pushes water northward as it rises to the surface. This is perhaps the ONLY think that keeps our climate relatively stable. This provides almost all heat exchange for our climate. However when the polar ice caps melt, the conveyor belt will shut off and there will be nothing to bring warmth to the poles.

    http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/32.htm
    http://www.enn.com/enn-news-archive/1999/09/092699/conveyor_5908.asp

    A harsh ice age begins. Moisture gets trapped in ice, and equatorial regions become baron. This happened before. (When I find the link I will post it). There was an ice age that formed a Glacier where the outlet, of what is now "Hudson Bay" in Canada, is. A giant lake formed (much larger than the Hudson Bay is today) and when the glacier finally melted, The giant body of water poured most of its contents right into the critical exchange region of the conveyor belt, where the Atlantic Ocean meets the Arctic. This sudden contamination of fresh water ofset the crucial densities at work and the conveyor belt shut down for centuries. Climate was drastically affected and what had been a normal Ice age, was turned into a Horrible stage where The higher latitudes were frozen and the middle latitudes were Hot and baron.

    Humans wouldn't fair to well in such a situation (not to mention the Millions of species of plants and animals that would be affected). Of course such a sitution would be in the distant future, but I would hope that many people are concerned with the future of this Earth. Also, keep in mind that it's to late not to feel any consequences. It's going to get bad over the next few decades (even if we were to fix things right now). But we can at least change things for the future to prevent such drastic results.


    If you are interested in reading more on this topic, I would suggest going to http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/climate/


    Edit: Whoops... I was calling The Hudson Bay "LAKE HUDSON"... lol whoops.
     
  15. mymemory macrumors 68020

    mymemory

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    Location:
    Miami
    #15
    To reduce greenhouse gasses you would have to change the automotive industry that just will not change.

    I live in a country that produces and export oil and let me tell you that such big corporations have enough money to cancel any investigation. It will be too late when some one start doing something about it, the governments just do nor care right now, too many things to do besides dealing with terrorism.

    I live in Venezuela and he had 6 metters of water in our reservory before the raining season started, 6 meters of water is about nothing for 10 million people, and each year is getting worst, not only becasue the lack of rain but deforestation too.
     
  16. frescies macrumors regular

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    Los Angeles, CA
    #16
    Re: This'll raise eyebrows...


    I'd rather see the entire human race expire than endorse such god-playing.
     
  17. GeeYouEye macrumors 68000

    GeeYouEye

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    #17
    Re: Re: This'll raise eyebrows...

    What a surprise that you actually believe in global warming then.

    Is global warming happening? Possibly, though I doubt it, and if it really is, I seriously doubt that humanity could contribute anything even remotely significant; a single volcanic eruption produces more CO2 than the entirely of human industry, all ~200 years of it. First, remember that 20-25 years ago, scientists were going on about global cooling. Second, without exception, the 'evidence' for global warming is all based on one of two things: anecdotal evidence (ie. Europe is having the hottest summer in 50 years.) and computer models. The anecdotal evidence is nice and dramatic, but ultimately meaningless - this summer has been far cooler here than it was for the past couple of years, and, more importantly, so was this winter.

    The computer models look convincing, but are based on appallingly incomplete data. Some things typically unaccounted for in models: rainfall(!), radiation, volcanic and other tectonic activity, any greenhouse gasses other than CO2, H2O (and yes, water vapor is a greenhouse gas), and CH4 (methane), wildfires, sun cycles, sunspots, El Niño, and more. This of course leads to skewed results. Using data from 1900 to 2000, the 2001 results were higher than reality by at least 2 and up to 7 degrees F. If they can't even make an accurate post-diction, I don't think it's reasonable to trust the models for the future.
     
  18. Backtothemac macrumors 601

    Backtothemac

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    San Destin Florida
    #18
    Wait a minute. Why is he a dolt. Because he has followed the lead of the last 10 aministrations? Or did global warming just start in the last three years?
     
  19. patrick0brien macrumors 68040

    patrick0brien

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    #19
    Re: Re: Re: This'll raise eyebrows...

    -GeeYouEye

    Agreed 100%. There just isn't enough data, let alone gathered for long enough time to prove that Global Warming is happening at all, much less if Humanity is the cause of it.

    I do, however, believe that the Earth is getting warmer as a midterm trend, but not in the catastrophic, not-naturally-reversible definition of Global Warming.

    And this is a key point. We're coming of a particularly nasty Solar Maximum, which does warm the earth and swell the atmosphere in a 'normal' maximum.

    We just don't have enough information, and kudos to both the Clinton and Bush administrations for not submitting to controls that have no proven scientific basis for either the perceived problem, or the solution.
     
  20. Backtothemac macrumors 601

    Backtothemac

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    #20
    Re: Re: Re: Re: This'll raise eyebrows...

    Exactly, it makes me laugh how proud we are as a species. This planet has been around for over 6 billion years. Now, there have been massive global events through the years. How can we be so egotistical that we believe that we will have as much of an impact on the planet as mother nature herself. As pointed out earlier a single volcanic eruption produces more gases into the atmosphere than all of mankind's history.

    We are nats. When mother nature is tired of us, we will go bye bye.
     
  21. crenz macrumors 6502a

    crenz

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    #21
    Well, it also depends on consumer behaviour. I am lucky in that I can use public transport cheaply (as a student), so I don't own a car. I find it too much of a hassle, and too expensive. Instead, I do car-sharing. An organization keeps the cars clean and repaired, and I pay them on a per-use basis. I like! And by the way, this is all happening in the home town of DaimlerChrysler :D .

    By the way, for cars, usage (ie. driving around) amounts to about 80% of the total energy balance (the rest is spent on production and recycling). AFAIK, for computers (at least for normal desktops), more energy is spent on production than on powering them throughout their whole lifetime.

    If you bought a G5, and your ecologic conscience is bothering you now, I am willing to trade it against my G3 266 so you can sleep at night again :) .
     
  22. frescies macrumors regular

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    #22
    Re: Re: Re: This'll raise eyebrows...


    Did you read my other post further up? There is some non-anecdotal evidence. Also your numbers represent some strong convictions. Do you have any sources for these numbers? Also when you say that "this summer has been far cooler here than it was for the past couple of years", which "here" are you talking about?.... your home town? And the past couple of years ay???? By geological comparison, the past couple of years are the equivelent of the time to represent a random quantum fluxuation. If you were to take one split second measurement of a quantum state and happened to observe a particle behaving in a very strange manner, would you base your assumptions on such? No, because such a time frame is nothing. Particularly when "the past couple of years" have been:

    A.) This year
    B.) The year before, which as you may recall we happened to be experiencing dramatic Warm-ocean-Currents (known in some places as el-nino) which made last summer particularly warm.

    Even more interesting about your argument is that you state that you have no interest in anecdotal evidence. Well isn't the very statement; "this summer has been far cooler here than it was for the past couple of years, and, more importantly, so was this winter", purely anectodal support for your argument?

    Also you mention the point that a volcanic eruption releases more CO2 than all of industrialized humanity. I have not seen this proven anywhere other than computer assisted models interpreted from limited collection samples.... The kind of computer model that you say is so flawed.

    I agree that computer models can be misleading representations of the state of our climate.... particularly because they seem to focus on a single variable at a time. However there are so many more things to observe than mere computer models and "anecdotal evidence". Statistically rising Ocean and Atmospheric temperatures (particularly near the poles) is something that you define as anecdotal evidence, but your rebuttle is nothing more than the same. I venture to say that the poles are the closest thing to the Earth's thermometer, considering that they are MOST resistant to climate change. Climate can fluctuate elsewhere on earth for several years, decades, and sometimes centuries before a change is represented in the Poles. However, a climate change at the poles is a geological prelude to worldwide climate change. Carefuly monitored data and observations (not just computer models) have shown the temperatures to rise at the poles, and resulting polar melting has reached an alarming rate. This is more than mere "anecdotal evidence"

    You may bring up your opinion that Volcanoes aren't melting the polar ice caps so how could we? Well.... how else could you explain the melting of the polar ice caps? We do release many other greenhouse gasses besides the CO2 that is released in a volcanic eruption. Are you suggesting that because its a natural process for carbon dioxide to be released into the air, that we should add to it? Theres a lot of things that occur naturally that we shouldn't do ourselfs as our input would be overwhelming.
     
  23. TEG macrumors 604

    TEG

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    Langley, Washington
    #23
    I agree that global warming appears to be a problem, but the reasons aren't as clear.

    In the late 60s early 70s , scientists said we were in "Global Cooling", average temeratures were 3 to 10 degrees celcius (sp?) below recorded averages. Several places around the globe even had snow durring their summers.

    Here is is 30 to 40 years later, and the oppisite is true, many places didn't have much of a winter last year. However, though I feel for those who have had hot/dry summers, for which I am in too. Scientists blame it on "Global Warming."

    However, Many places around the globe are having weather that is cool and wet, or just overly wet in general. I'm currently in Portland, Oregon, US, the average daytime high so far this summer is around 80 degrees F (about 25c), and at home in Seattle, its just slightly cooler at 78f (24c). However, where much of my dad's family lives, Delphi, Indiana, US, they are still recovering from cool weather, and major flooding. That rain, should be in the western plains, not the eastern planes, the heat should be east Portland/Seattle, and to the south.

    Coupled with all the finger pointing, is a premature El Nino (sorry, non mac system, no tilde). Causing many foul up is the weather.

    Another fact to take into account, in 1970, the earths population was just arround 3.5 Billion, now we are over 6 Billion. At 37 degrees c, (98.6f) it is only natural that 6+ billion people would warm up the earth by ourselves, no to mention all the heat released by our inventions. Computers, Cars, Lightbulbs, even bicycling, causes the generation of heat, more so than any other polution. The best thing we really can do, is to reduce our output of heat. Decrease friction, radiation output, and generally live smarter, that can set the precident for the right direction.

    TEG
     
  24. Dad macrumors newbie

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  25. Gyroscope macrumors regular

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    #25
    Duh! Although I see human race as a cancer of this planet. We in fact believe that we are so important because (apparently :)) we are inteligent. The reality however is that we will eventually die out (like so many others before) and our moma earth will certainly continue to rotate for a long time after that. Point of this post is to say how insignificant we are in this vast universe. Nothing lasts forever.One day our sun is gonna run out of hydrogen,way before that last living organisms on our planet will die out and eventually our universe will collapse in great crunch.

    Meanwhile, learn to cope with the heat,use your mac,drink lot of water(while there is still some :)) and hope that maybe new generations would grow up to become much better human beings than these damn baby boomers.

    Thank You
     
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