Has Apple lost it's magic? Is Amazon the new Apple?

[poloponies]

I honestly believe Apple will still be around and relevant, but they won't be as powerful as they have been in the past. I'm talking in terms of the general average consumer. Most people get and use tablets for media consumption, and the Fire HD is one of the best devices for that, for less than half of the ipad. If an ipad works for you fine, if the Kindle Fire works for you fine, if the Nexus 7 works for you, that's fine as well.

They created multi-billion dollar markets for portable music players and tablets. It's not a phenomenon that can be replicated on a regular schedule. And it was nearly a decade between the iPod and iPad.

And you still don't look at the growth of the market. So Apple controlling 100% of a market in a year when 15 million total tablets were sold in 2010 compared to Apple's 40% share in 2012 when there were 140 million tablets sold doesn't convey much when you look solely at % share, but means a whole lot when it comes to their bottom line.

So if Apple ends up with 80 million sales this year (which it appears likely to do), the most important statistic is that it will have sold 30% more than it sold last year.

 

[MacManTexas56]

The Android Market share is around 56% while the ios market share is around 39%

The Kindle fire is the most popular android platform. It accounts for 33% of android tablets. 59% of all the android market comes from the US, and the Kindle Fire HD accounts for over half of it.


HOWEVER, internet traffic was almost universally done by ios devices, with around 80%+ of the traffic, and the Kindle Fire HD in 2nd place, with around 10%+

All things indicate Android to take over from Apple in Q3 of 2013.



I got to admit, I have already moved on from an ipad and an iphone. I have a Kindle Fire HD and I love it, to be quite honest I like it more than my ipad. My phone is a windows phone that I plan on upgrading for a galaxy.


What are the opinions of fellow board members on this subject? How would you feel about an android dominated market space? Has any android device seemed tempting to you?

Please do not think I am trying to badmouth apple. Personally I don't care what people buy, if it does what you need it to do that's fine with me.

iOS devices are made by ONE single company. How many companies are included in the Android market share?

Price is the reason Apple doesn't completely dominate. Most people want an iPad or iOS device really bad, but the price is just too much. Why get an iPad when you can get another tablet for as cheap as $99?

Same goes with cell phones. Some androids can get as cheap as $40-$50 NO contract involved.

It's not really a fair comparison. You are comparing cheap $50 prepaid phones and including that in the market share. Those people would obviously never buy an Apple product bc they don't have the money. To be fair...you'd have to compare high end devices against each other.

The other thing I think is funny about these studies is the real world difference. I have been to many conferences in the past year and literally every other person has an iPhone and an iPad with a bluetooth keyboard attached. It is rare to see an android tablet or phone pretty much anywhere I go. I think if you take out the cheap Android market and I think Apple would really dominate.

 

[GKDAIR]

The first two bolded statements above are where I think your subjective opinion is influencing your belief. There's no study that I have seen has the kindle fire been catching up quickly, and ipad loosing consumer standard. From what NPD and others are observing, the ipad is holding steady, and the kindle fire has taken away other android market share.

You're right that there are cheaper ways to consume media. However, the ONLY thing android tablets do better than ipad is consuming media which has been sideloaded. 95%* of the time, this means its pirated movies or tvshows from bittorrent or usenet, and relatively few overall sideload content at all. Most consume media through apps: netflix, hulu, amazon prime, kindle app, ibooks, newstand, youtube, your local cable provider's streaming app, whatever your favote blog's app is, etc. The BIGGEST app of all for consuming media is the web browser. All of the above, except sideloading content, the iPad does better than anyone else.

Finally, I don't think the Windows analogy works. Windows dominated the PC market due to some underhanded dealings with Intel early on, and then without competition they went stale. This isn't the case with iPad; they do have competition, like the kindle fire, who are lighting a proverbial fire under their ass and keeping them on top of their game and giving them a reason to stay the best long-term.

I don't want Kindle Fire to fail, or Android. Without competentent competition, then iPad would become stale and akin to Windows; but that isn't the case yet and I doubt it ever will be.

*I made this number up, but its probably not too far from the truth. :-D

I can't remember exactly where I pulled the data from but just google Android Market Share or Ios market share and it should be some of the first few options that come up. There is nothing that specifically says the Kindle Fire is eating away at the IOS numbers, but there is data to support that the IOS is losing ground to the Android platform overall. Like I said earlier howeever, 80%+ traffic from tablet devices is done from the Apple Ipad however, and in 2nd place is the Kindle Fire HD with around 10%+ of traffic

The Kindle Fire HD is the top selling Android Tablet, as a result it controls over half of the market for Android tablets in the US. This is not my opinion, these are facts.

Amazon doesn't release official numbers as to how many have been sold, but I think with the 8.9 it's easy to see they are trying to compete with the ipad market.

The ipad does offer all sorts of ways to consume media, such as Netflix or Ibooks, but it doesn't mean that it is the best way to consume that media.

Amazon Prime allows you stream millions of television shows, books, movies, all for free at any time. To my knowledge, Apple does not offer a service like this, now it is true that you can just download the Amazon app to be able to watch these videos and books, but why on earth would you buy a 500 dollar tablet to do what you can do on a 200 dollar tablet? Now, the ipad offers other options as well as just amazon prime, and people will probably use those as well, that's one of the benefits why the ipad costs 500 and the Kindle Fire HD costs 200, but again if you are just wanting to consume media, it's pretty hard to beat what the Kindle Fire offers and Apple doesn't.

And I'm sorry, but it's incredibly ignorant to state that 95% of sideloaded content is stuff android users have pirated, and just drags down your argument that you are trying to make.

 

[oneMadRssn]

I can't remember exactly where I pulled the data from but just google Android Market Share or Ios market share and it should be some of the first few options that come up. There is nothing that specifically says the Kindle Fire is eating away at the IOS numbers, but there is data to support that the IOS is losing ground to the Android platform overall. Like I said earlier howeever, 80%+ traffic from tablet devices is done from the Apple Ipad however, and in 2nd place is the Kindle Fire HD with around 10%+ of traffic

The Kindle Fire HD is the top selling Android Tablet, as a result it controls over half of the market for Android tablets in the US. This is not my opinion, these are facts.

Amazon doesn't release official numbers as to how many have been sold, but I think with the 8.9 it's easy to see they are trying to compete with the ipad market.

The ipad does offer all sorts of ways to consume media, such as Netflix or Ibooks, but it doesn't mean that it is the best way to consume that media.

Amazon Prime allows you stream millions of television shows, books, movies, all for free at any time. To my knowledge, Apple does not offer a service like this, now it is true that you can just download the Amazon app to be able to watch these videos and books, but why on earth would you buy a 500 dollar tablet to do what you can do on a 200 dollar tablet? Now, the ipad offers other options as well as just amazon prime, and people will probably use those as well, that's one of the benefits why the ipad costs 500 and the Kindle Fire HD costs 200, but again if you are just wanting to consume media, it's pretty hard to beat what the Kindle Fire offers and Apple doesn't.

Everything you can do on a Kindle Fire, you can on an iPad, including streaming millions of tv shows, books, movies, all for free at anytime, using the same Amazon Prime through the various Amazon apps in the appstore. Many reviewers even agree that reading books on the Kindle App on an iPad is better than using a Kindle Fire.

The reason someone would pay $500 for a tablet isntead of $200 for a tablet is what I said in the original post. Apple's recent success is an indication that people are willing to pay a premium for all the smoothness of iOS, snappiness of the UI, and the customer support of Apple; specs don't matter. Any tablet that can run a Netflix app can stream a movie, but the user experience is what sets one apart from the other, and people will pay for more for a good user experience.

I don't think we really disagree here all that much. I'm not denying that the Kindle Fire is selling well; the whole tablet market is growing pretty fast in general. My point is that the Kindle Fire is mostly taking away sales from other Android tablets, not from the iPad. One Android tablet competing with another Android tablet. iPad market share has been steady and strong, and isn't budging in any meaningful way. What were Xoom buyers before are now Kindle Fire buyers. Sure, some people may have walked into a Best Buy hoping to buy an iPad and walked out with a Kindle Fire instead, but they are few and are probably the ones giving it 1-star reviews on Amazon (seriously, go read the 1-star reviews, they're mostly from people who thought it was an iPad equivalent).

And I'm sorry, but it's incredibly ignorant to state that 95% of sideloaded content is stuff android users have pirated, and just drags down your argument that you are trying to make.

Is it ignorant? I have asked in various forums and researched online to come up with a list of where people get content to manually sideload (I define manually sideloading as anything that isn't loaded with the use of an app). I came up with a pretty thorough list, from memory most of it is:

- public domain books, movies and music from archive.org
- fan fiction
- manga (apperently it's pretty much impossible to get these any other way)
- home videos
- indie music and movies (it's got to be super fringe to not be on youtube, vimeo, soundcloud, or equivaent)
- beta software for testing
- pre-production movies/music for screening
- porn (the backbone of the internet)
- pirated movies, music, books, etc.

Lacking any official NPD research into this area, I am willing to bet that pirated media and porn are the most often used in this list. Public domain stuff is probably second. The rest is probably negligible, as they are incredibly niche. I'm actually pretty certain of that. It's not ignorant because I have legitimately done lots of research on this (my forthcoming paper on criminal copyright infringement will be published in 2014 in a legal journal, I can email you the citation when it's published, or a draft of it if you like).

So I ask you, please, where else does one get legitimately obtained media to sideload? I want to know.

Some legit music stores like amazon will give you the .mp3 to download, but it would be easier to just stream them through Amazon's app. I couldn't find a single legitimate place to download a major movie or tv show file whole, as a file to sideload that is; only pirated ones. Even the "digital copy" that comes with some DVDs or BluRays is just a code to download from an app or service. Even self-published indie authors are now publishing on Kindle or iBooks.

Also keep in mind that some sideloading not in the above list is a legal grey area: DVD rips and international movies that aren't streamable anywhere. I was tempted to include fanfiction here too, but decided not to because it's so harmless. These things are technically a violation of copyright, but everyone does it and practically no one is ever cought or sued for it. It's not quite legitimate; but it's also not quite piracy either.

So... maybe not 95% is pirated, but 80% or more for sure. This is to say, very few non-advanced users sideload at all - so it's 90% of a very few people.

 

[danahn17]

So nice to see people throwing hissy fits and calling me names, oh and also people taking what I say out of context. People tend to get defensive when they have no counter point.

LOL... what did you expect posting a fairly critical opinion on an Apple forum?

I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that the Kindle Fire is the best Android tablet though. It may be the most popular (I don't know) but popular doesn't necessarily equate with best. I would rank the Note 10.1 and Note 8 higher simply because of the stylus.

I also think that while the iPad mini is expensive compared to its Android counterparts, if you want an iPad or iOS (and its apps), I personally would prefer to buy the mini for its size.

 

[filmbuff]

This is a pretty ridiculous topic. Every time Apple comes out with a device they sell millions on release day. They sell 20 million iPads a quarter. People literally camp outside the stores for a new iPhone. What other company can say that?

 

[kazmac]

if an android dominate market means

a dramatic DECREASE in iPhone/iPad theft, yes please.

Honestly, I do not care who rules the market. What is right for me may not be right for someone else. It's all good.

 

[bri1212]

This is not a hissy fit

TO OP,
I completely disagree with your assessment. Apple is still the most profitable company in the world. Apple still has millions of people waiting on baited breath for the latest and greatest. The Android market companies ( especially Samsung ) seem to always be posturing to show how much better their products are then Apple. Not the other way around.
As far as the usability of products from the get go, I can only say when ever I go to an android display in the mall, We recently had a Samsung Booth in the middle of the mall which was replaced by an HTC One booth, to show off their latest and greatest. Neither booth had wifi to try out their internet products.
When I went to a magazine site on the demo HTC one that I tried, I would have to download the content to read or view the article, which I could not do as they had no wifi.
When one walks into an apple store you can try all of the products, just as you would use them. They have internet access, and plenty of games downloaded to demo. No one ever stops you from going into or looking at settings, like the HTC reps did to me. No one ever stops you from going to a competitors site and looking at their offerings, no one ever stops you from twittering or face booking from the apple store either.
The samsung phones, the notes, and Galaxy offering were fine, I did find that they lagged a bit, when I tried them. I also know that when hundreds of people have been playing with phones all day it is not surprising to find them lagging and glitchy. Yet, Somehow in the Apple store I rarely find that to be a problem.

I also have used the kindle fire, and really don't see what your so excited about. Again my opinion. I did not see where in form or function it was better than the apple offered tablets. And the only reason it seems to be selling well is a price issue. That being the case, you go ahead and buy and play with your Chevy, but I prefer the Porsche.

 

[Hello...]

The Amazon app store is vastly inferior to Google's Play Store (which is already slightly inferior to Apple's own store). I wouldn't even consider a Kindle Fire HD over a Nexus 7.

I am considering a windows 8 tablet, but not sure i will love it.

 

[s15119]

no and no.

 

[Rodster]

I got to admit, I have already moved on from an ipad and an iphone. I have a Kindle Fire HD and I love it, to be quite honest I like it more than my ipad. My phone is a windows phone that I plan on upgrading for a galaxy.

I own 2 Kindle Fire HD's as well as a couple of iPad's. I can tell you that the iPad smokes the Kindle Fire HD in every way. For starters the hardware is better on the iPad, the UI and OS is better on the iPad as well and the resale value is better for the iPad.

Don't get me wrong I love Amazon.com and i'm a Prime member and that's where the KF-HD shines. But Apple has the rest covered quite easily.

 

[62tele]

Your assertion is laughable.

Amazon is a giant of internet retail. (I suspect it will lose a great deal of it's mojo if Congress ever taxes internet sales.) It's not in the consumer electronic business per se.

Apple is doing fine.
The iPad is doing fine and is still by far the most desirable tablet to consumers.
The iPhone is doing fine.

As others have pointed out, Android devices are not all created equal regardless of it's market share.

This statement is so blatantly thin:
"Please do not think I am trying to badmouth apple. Personally I don't care what people buy, if it does what you need it to do that's fine with me."

Please!

 

[WilliamLondon]

I don't understand the point of these posts - this isn't the first, and it certainly won't be the last, "the magic is gone from Apple," "I'm leaving Apple," or "I'm about to leave Apple" themes. What is the point?

It sounds like the OP has pretty much left Apple, so what, last minute regrets? The decision has been made, the OP is using non-Apple products (which are superior in his/her opinion), so what, instead of igniting a bag filled with turds and quickly exiting, let off a good fart in the middle of the room before you go and get everyone in the room to deny it was them?

That's what it seems like, posts like this aren't so directly attacking in Apple products (very cleverly appearing not to be trolls, in the traditional sense), but they certainly get everyone then to defend their support for Apple and its products (on an Apple positive site!). Are we meant to feel bad because we're not leaving, that we aren't enlightened yet?

Go or stay, but don't expect me to join you, I won't reassure you that your decision is correct, and I won't ask you not to go. As for declaring my continuing support for Apple, I'm staying, so I guess that says it all. What more do you expect, other than trashing your decision to leave and the decisions you've made? And what's the point in that, I don't come here to trash other companies, I come here to talk about my love of Apple and its products.

 

[neutrino23]

Android market share in the US is now around 52%. It has been falling since last year while Apple's share has been steadily rising. The latest Galaxy S4 looks like it is a flop. The news is that Samsung is frantically cutting orders for parts.

I travel several times a month on business. On transcontinental flights you see lots of iPads and a few Kindles. Rarely do you see anything else.

There is talk now that Google may give up on Android and fold it into Chrome as it gets so little benefit from it. Samsung is working to develop a replacement. The point is that the Android arena is rather chaotic. Android devices are sold in the bargain bin at Fry's or Best Buy. If you want something reliable you buy an Apple.

Yankee Group has forecast that in 2015 iOS will pass up Android in the US. The main reason seems to be that people who buy Apple products like them and don't leave the platform. Some people who buy Android are dissatisfied and switch to iOS. Over a couple years this steady defection from Android puts Apple in first place.

 

[ApfelKuchen]

Let's take the title of this thread at face value.

Part I: Has Apple lost its magic?

How does one measure a thing like magic? Certainly not in the present tense. Twenty years from now, let's look back and see how things developed over a period longer than a year.

When you say "magic," Walt Disney comes to mind. He unexpectedly died of cancer in 1966. Yeah, the Walt Disney Company floundered around for quite a while in filmed entertainment, but Walt's "Nine Old Men" trained the animators who lead the animation renaissance that began in the late 80s. And Walt's brother, Roy, cut the ribbon for Walt Disney World in 1971, after exhausting himself to bring his brother's dream to life. We know how that worked out. If you think Steve Jobs, Chairman of Pixar and member of the Walt Disney Company Board of Directors, didn't know any of this, and didn't learn from Disney history, you're sadly mistaken.

Part II: Is Amazon the new Apple?

Let's see…

Amazon is a retailer whose core business is selling products made by other companies. On the side, they sell a handful of Amazon-branded electronics products and operate the infrastructure to support those products.

Apple designs and manufactures electronic computing devices, operating systems, and software. On the side, it's a retailer that sells products of its own making and, to a smaller extent, sells products made by others.

Is there any indication that Amazon is abandoning its current business model and moving towards the Apple business model? No. At best, we can say that the two companies compete with each other in certain aspects of their businesses.

The analogy that occurs to me is Boeing vs. Ford Motor Company. There was a time when Ford was a major player in the aircraft business. The Ford Tri-Motor (introduced in 1925) established and dominated the category of "commercial passenger plane." The Boeing 80, that company's first venture into the category, was introduced three years after the Tri-Motor, and took market share from Ford. One could have asked at the time, "Is Boeing the next Ford?" The answer, as history shows us, is a resounding no. You could rightly call Boeing the Ford (or GM) of the aircraft industry, but it never competed with Ford on Ford's home turf, where Ford is still a very major player.

Sure, we could take market share figures for one or two competing product lines, at a particular date and time, and use those numbers to predict the fate of both companies. Seriously? If we brought an analysis like that to a high school economics class, at best the teacher would give us a "D."

 

[charlituna]

Then there is this report saying iOS will be king by 2015.

Has Apple "lost" its magic?

Yes it has.

As no it hasn't.

All depends on who you ask and how they measure

 

[jrswizzle]

Until Amazon actually turns a profit, they aren't the next Apple......

Apple has some big stuff in store for the end of this year through 2014.....I think we're in for an Apple "resurgence" of sorts. Gotta be a little patient before the big stuff comes - better to do it right than rush and screw it all up.

 

[BaldiMac]

Is Apple the new Amazon?

iTunes Stores could be the largest internet retail store by number of customers and profits.

 

[nixiemaiden]

eh. I disagree. I have an iPad 2 and a Kindle Fire HD and I use the iPad2 99.9% of the time. The only plus I can see to the Kindle Fire HD is that I can borrow books with my prime membership.

Also just for the record, I am a huge Amazon fan. Probably half the time I spend on my iPad is browsing Amazon / watching Amazon prime videos, etc. Just saying...

 

[beautifulcoder]

Nonsense. The Kindle Fire HD is a complete lagfest when you use its default browser.

Personally, I'm completely spoiled by the iPad. Now when a friend shows me their fancy Windows Phone or Android device, I can't help but notice the wretched pixel-by-pixel rendering and non-responsiveness as they scroll through an app. Also the typography and color display on these devices. Yuck!

Having control of the hardware and the software with precise touch controls is a win win for Apple. Amazon has a long way to go before this can happen.

 

[scottw324]

iOS devices are made by ONE single company. How many companies are included in the Android market share?

Price is the reason Apple doesn't completely dominate. Most people want an iPad or iOS device really bad, but the price is just too much. Why get an iPad when you can get another tablet for as cheap as $99?

Same goes with cell phones. Some androids can get as cheap as $40-$50 NO contract involved.

It's not really a fair comparison. You are comparing cheap $50 prepaid phones and including that in the market share. Those people would obviously never buy an Apple product bc they don't have the money. To be fair...you'd have to compare high end devices against each other.

The other thing I think is funny about these studies is the real world difference. I have been to many conferences in the past year and literally every other person has an iPhone and an iPad with a bluetooth keyboard attached. It is rare to see an android tablet or phone pretty much anywhere I go. I think if you take out the cheap Android market and I think Apple would really dominate.

Try some tablets as low as $59.
http://www.walmart.com/ip/XELIO-7-Tablet-With-4GB-Memory/23709345

Now let me say that I am contributing to both the iPad and android stats. I have a iPad 2, iPad 3, and a new iPad mini that I am trying out for form factor (I plan on selling the iPad 2 to pay for the mini). I also have a $119 Coby android tablet that I mess around with that I was using to try out the smaller tablet size but finally broke down and just bought a mini. I am not a fan of android 4.1. I like the toggles and the ability to load data on a USB drive and connect to it or use a MicroSD card to 32GB of storage for $14 but that is about it. I mostly use the Coby tablet for my 4 yr old to play with. Put free games on it and I have the Time Warner Cable TV app on it along with Netflix so she can watch some of her shows or movies on it, great for power outages. But that is about it. I love my iPads and will probably keep sticking with them.

 

[scottw324]

I can't remember exactly where I pulled the data from but just google Android Market Share or Ios market share and it should be some of the first few options that come up. There is nothing that specifically says the Kindle Fire is eating away at the IOS numbers, but there is data to support that the IOS is losing ground to the Android platform overall. Like I said earlier howeever, 80%+ traffic from tablet devices is done from the Apple Ipad however, and in 2nd place is the Kindle Fire HD with around 10%+ of traffic

The Kindle Fire HD is the top selling Android Tablet, as a result it controls over half of the market for Android tablets in the US. This is not my opinion, these are facts.

Amazon doesn't release official numbers as to how many have been sold, but I think with the 8.9 it's easy to see they are trying to compete with the ipad market.

The ipad does offer all sorts of ways to consume media, such as Netflix or Ibooks, but it doesn't mean that it is the best way to consume that media.

Amazon Prime allows you stream millions of television shows, books, movies, all for free at any time. To my knowledge, Apple does not offer a service like this, now it is true that you can just download the Amazon app to be able to watch these videos and books, but why on earth would you buy a 500 dollar tablet to do what you can do on a 200 dollar tablet? Now, the ipad offers other options as well as just amazon prime, and people will probably use those as well, that's one of the benefits why the ipad costs 500 and the Kindle Fire HD costs 200, but again if you are just wanting to consume media, it's pretty hard to beat what the Kindle Fire offers and Apple doesn't.

And I'm sorry, but it's incredibly ignorant to state that 95% of sideloaded content is stuff android users have pirated, and just drags down your argument that you are trying to make.

Now lets not say free really when it comes to Amazon Prime. There is an annual fee for prime. One of the perks is you get to watch video as well but if you didn't pay that fee then you wouldn't be able to watch the video unless you paid for it separately. So lets just stick with that.

As for why I would spend $500 on a tablet and them put Amazon Instant Video and Kindle app on it when I could just buy a $200 tablet? Better hardware, better performance, better App Store, better content. If I am already paying for Prime why not take advantage of the iOS Instant Video app. I like to read too, so I the iOS Kindle app on my iPads and my iPhone. He'll I even have it on my Win7 laptop in case that is all I have available.

If Apple offered a $100/yr subscription based service to watch any content then have in iTunes I would pay for it. Until then I will download what I want from iTunes and the rest I will get from other methods. Either way I watch a lot of content on my iPads.

 

[Oppressed]

Market share does not signify a better product.

And Kindle App Store is terrible.

 

[scupking]

More and more I keep thinking when my phone contract is up in September that I might go with an I phone. The only thing that has stopped me from ever getting an iPhone is the screen size is to small (4.5" or 4.7" would be great) and battery life. My motarola razr maxx is amazing with battery life.

 

[Obese Lobsters]

I would argue that Amazon is very similar to apple in that they are providing a solution (product+content) vs. providing just a product; however, that's as close as the comparison gets. Ironically I believe that Amazon's downfall is pricing. I'm not sure about their profit margins, but with sufficient profit margins I don't see Amazon having the same R&D resources thus they'll never truly put out a product with the impact that Apple products have had.

Slightly off topic, The company most similar to Apple I believe is Nintendo:

Both companies come out with products that are different from their competitors.

Analysts are always saying that companies are doomed.

Commenters are always pointing out how pointless the products are (ironically the products success seems to be inverse to how negative the product's reactions are)

Both create products focusing on the experience not features

That's my opinion however