How much do you expect a base 2012 rMBP 15" be worth in 3 years?

Discussion in 'MacBook Pro' started by raptorstv, Dec 17, 2012.

  1. raptorstv, Dec 17, 2012
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2012

    macrumors 6502

    Mar 24, 2011
    After doing my homework, I think that buying a rMBP can actually cost the same or even cheaper than owning a PC. From my past experience, I would spend around $1000+tax on average for a decent Windows laptop. And if I will sell the laptop 3 years later, I usually can sell it for $300 (if lucky) assuming that it's still in a good condition (which is very rare, because the build quality is usually really bad).

    Whereas, the base rMBP cost me $1,999+tax (with student pricing)... and I am hoping that I will be able to sell it for at least $1200 in 3 years or so. Basically, I'm getting a much better computer (especially that eye-popping retina display!) and it will ultimately cost the same for me. Anyone agree?
  2. macrumors 6502a

    Jun 27, 2010
    As Retina display cost would go down in the next several years, your base rMBP would worth 50% of its value if not less. I would guess a very good conditied rMBP would resell at $800-1000 range. However, nobody knows what and how laptops would look like in 2016.
  3. macrumors 603


    Jun 10, 2006
  4. macrumors 6502

    Mar 3, 2011
    The great state of Texas

    Priceless, due to the end of the Mayan calendar, time will start over and this will be the last and most current lap top for years. However due to the time rift coming at the end of the calendar. Electricity has not been invented yet and the only use you will get out of your rMBP is as a plow blade.
  5. macrumors 603


    Aug 3, 2006
  6. macrumors 6502

    Mar 3, 2011
    The great state of Texas
    Priceless, This is the first Retina MBP, that has to count for something. Collectors will fight over this thing. You got a winner there.
  7. macrumors 68020

    Feb 28, 2011
    Nothing. Aren't we all supposed to die like Friday or something?
  8. macrumors regular

    Feb 4, 2009
    12 cents!! This is due to Apple offering brain implants for all our computing needs.
  9. macrumors 6502a


    Aug 2, 2007
    You make a good point, and have a better chance of it working out with the student pricing, buying in a sales-tax free state, and selling in a state where people pay sales tax.

    Traditionally the MacBooks and MacbookPros hold their value really well, but I would expect that these initial rMBPs will do less well (but still likely better than a PC) for a few reasons:

    1. Their "not-totally-ready-for-prime-time" release will stick with them. Image retention ghosts are going to haunt this first model, whether yours has it or not.

    2. The new price will almost certainly be dropping a bit, and possibly quite a bit, from the initial price points (in real $ terms), possibly as soon as 6 months from now but almost surely when they drop the cMBP line altogether. The original 2008 MBA was $1800, it's equivalent today is $1200. That's an additional 8.3% per year in depreciation just because the buyers paid the early adopter "tax." The 2009 base model was $1500, stinging you for half of that depreciation right out of the gate.

    3. They aren't particularly upgradeable, so when they reach the tipping point of obsolescence on the standard spec, they're going to take a serious hit because you won't be able to upgrade them back into relevance. A $1500 2009 MBA with a 120GB 4200rpm HDD and 2GB RAM is verging on unusable whereas a $1200 2009 cMPB13 still has plenty of life left because you can upgrade it to 8GB and a 500GB SSD if you want. I'd bet that they both trade for about the same amount ($600 area), though I'd never pay that for the MBA.

    You can be sure that Apple has calculated all of this and built it into their pricing models, profit projections, and engineering goals.
  10. macrumors 6502a

    A Hebrew

    Jan 7, 2012
    I wouldn't pay over 1000 USD for it in 3 years.
  11. macrumors 6502a

    Mar 6, 2012
    I suspect it will be worth about 600 dollars on the 2nd hand market in 3 years. The 'it holds its value because it's a Mac' rarely works in the real world. For 1200 dollars, you will get a much more powerful laptop in 3 years time. Furthermore, the price of a brand new rMBP (base model) will probably have dropped by then. Why buy a 3 year old laptop for 1200 dollars, when you can get a brand new machine (with AppleCare) for a little more? In 3 years you will also be able to buy refurbished rMBPs from Apple. The quantity will be similar to what's available today for cMBPs.

    A 3 year old laptop is probably the worst purchase anyone can make. Not only is the machine no longer under guarantee, but it is equally entering a phase of its life where it becomes more prone to failures. If you need to fix the laptop, your only recourse is Apple. And if you need to fix an rMBP in 3 years time, that's going to cost you a significant amount of money. Depending on the type of failure, it could even cost you the equivalent of a new machine.

    People who sell things 2nd hand always tend to overprice them. If I see an advert for a 2nd hand computer, I always offer the seller 40% less than what he's asking. This forces him to justify the price. Sometimes there's a reason for the high price (accessories, upgrades, guarantee, etc.) but most often not. In the end, the price usually comes down significantly.
  12. macrumors regular

    Nov 5, 2011
    I'd say about what a 2009 15" is worth now. Retina won't be so unique by then.
  13. macrumors 68040

    Feb 13, 2012
    Perth, Western Australia
    Roughly a quarter of its original value, assuming it is still working properly.
  14. macrumors 68030


    Mar 22, 2011
    Tokyo, Japan
    Probably under 1000USD.
    Technology advances very fast.
    You brand new rMBP would be nothing in 3 years.
  15. thread starter macrumors 6502

    Mar 24, 2011
  16. macrumors regular

    Feb 8, 2008
  17. macrumors Nehalem


    Feb 19, 2005
    Why? That's still better than any PC. Besides, are you buying to use or buying to resell in 3 years?
  18. macrumors 68030


    Jul 13, 2008
    Actually, I'm pretty sure we rMBP early adopters will be screwed by resale value when - not if, Apple makes the Retina Display standard on the $1800 base model. $2200 - $300 yearly value loss x 3 = $1000 - $400 lineup price drop = $600. We would be lucky to get $800 when Apple lowers the Retina entry price.
  19. Guest


    Aug 5, 2012
    Exactly. Why bother spending any money at all if resale is all you care about

  20. thread starter macrumors 6502

    Mar 24, 2011
    Im calculating the cost of ownership
  21. macrumors 65816


    Jun 8, 2012
    u know what

    i'm with you on this one, i think we don't give technology enough credit, everyone is going wacko over the retinal macbook, the next big thing wont be a notebook computer at all, i think with the way 'appal' aka :apple: is going - they're just going to abandon ship and sink?? the flexible and transparent film with a touch display will become the next big thing so who knows where apple will be.

    there will always be someone to buy something though so who knows? someone wants something bad enough they'll pay anything for it ;) that would be the only determining value is if someone would actually pay something for it.
  22. macrumors 6502a


    Jan 8, 2007
    Sunny but Cold.. Canada
    Buy It..

    Use It..

    Be Happy..

    I would 'guesstimate' that as with my last two MBPs (since my first of Apr-06) that if it is worth anywhere near 40-50% after Three Years you are doing just fine, and I upgraded RAM and HDs with both mine as well.. I don't think the rMBP should be any different for Resale.. :cool:
  23. macrumors 68040

    Feb 13, 2012
    Perth, Western Australia
    I'm not sure of the tax law in your country, but here in australia we're allowed to fully depreciate a computer over 3 years.

    i.e., (for tax purposes) as far as the government is concerned, a 3 year old machine is worth $0.
  24. Guest


    Aug 5, 2012
    Then I doubt you can afford it.
  25. macrumors member

    Jul 4, 2012
    I think it depends on the battery life left. I think my battery will need to be replaced by then.

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