Intelligence Report Is Pessimistic About Iraq

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by IJ Reilly, Sep 16, 2004.

  1. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #1
    A U.S. official says the classified estimate found that, at best, stability would be tenuous.

    From Associated Press

    September 16, 2004

    WASHINGTON — A highly classified National Intelligence Estimate assembled by some of the government's most senior analysts this summer provides a pessimistic assessment about the future security and stability of Iraq.

    The National Intelligence Council looked at the political, economic and security situation and determined that, at best, stability would be tenuous, a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said late Wednesday.

    At worst, the official said, were "trend lines that would point to a civil war." The official said it "would be fair" to call the document "pessimistic."

    The estimate, prepared for President Bush, contrasts with public comments in which Bush and his senior aides have spoken optimistically about the prospects for a peaceful and free Iraq.

    "We're making progress on the ground," the president said at his Texas ranch late last month.

    The intelligence estimate, which is reportedly about 50 pages long, covers the period between July and the end of 2005.

    The latest assessment was undertaken by the National Intelligence Council, a group of senior intelligence officials.

    Acting CIA Director John E. McLaughlin and the leaders of other intelligence agencies have approved it.

    A CIA spokesman declined to comment Wednesday night, and a National Security Council spokesman could not be reached.

    The document was first reported by the New York Times on its website Wednesday.

    It is the first formal assessment of Iraq since the October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on the threat posed by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

    A review of that estimate released this summer by the Senate Intelligence Committee found widespread intelligence failures that led to faulty assumptions that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. ​

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-intel16sep16,1,2082558.story
     
  2. mischief macrumors 68030

    mischief

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    #2
    I'll add also that the situation has gotten so bad in Iraq that the media now finds it simply too dangerous to send reporters to most of the country when not embedded in a troop column. (NPR, Yesterday afternoon)

    As a result the exposure of the failure in Iraq to the American People is almost Nil. The same, by the way can be said for Afghanistan. Both countries are considered too likely to undergo violent civil war soon to be worth risking Reporter's lives on covering. A sick irony.

    Source is an interview W/ Christopher Dickey; Buraue cheif for NewsWeek out of France. He's been the lead reporter for Newsweek in Iraq and has been a War correspondent for 30 years.

    Link to Audio: http://www.npr.org/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=13&prgDate=15-Sep-2004
     
  3. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #3
    how is it that a number of us here, w/ our limited access to information, could see what a disaster all this would be, but the administration could not?

    ...or did they...
     
  4. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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  5. mischief macrumors 68030

    mischief

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    #5
    How do you hunt critters that are illegal to hunt with impunity?

    " IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR US!!!!"

    Honestly I really don't think it entered their minds. They had a goal (Git that pesky Diktayter with the ugly moustache.) and they were determined to go after it.
     
  6. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #6
    I think everybody who follows the situation in Iraq even moderately closely knows that the country is showing every sign of descending into a spiral of chaos from which it is unlikely to recover any time soon. That's old news. The real story here is how the tale Bush is telling the public is at such wide variance with what his own intelligence apparatus is telling him. Yup, but
    "we're makin' progress" -- so long as your definition of "progress" is "from bad to worse."
     
  7. mischief macrumors 68030

    mischief

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    #7
    Hmm.... Just a thought but:

    If you have no destination in mind but keep on driving... are you not, by definition making progress?
     
  8. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #8
    haha LOL so true

    is anybody actually surprised that the report is pessimistic ?
     
  9. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #9
    iraq is regressing because the # of bad things is outpacing the # of good. but -- as long as at least one good thing is happening (you know, like a school got painted), the cherry-picking administration feels it can say that progress is being made.

    i bought a new Audi and stuck a nickel into my savings account. look ma, i'm saving!
     
  10. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #10
    Reminds me of the old husband and wife joke, where the wife asks the husband, "We're lost, aren't we?" And he says, "Yeah, but we're making great time!"

    Bada-boomp!
     
  11. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #11
    Sorry for the duplicate thread, but the story on CNN has a few interesting additions. I particularly like this quote:

    CNN
     
  12. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #12
    I suppose this situation must be more difficult to explain away if you happen to be the Senator from Nebraska then if you're the President of the United States. Sad, but true.

    I'm beginning to harbor the wish that Bush wins this year because it's becoming clear to me that he'll sink like a ton of bricks if the situation in Iraq doesn't improve substantially -- which seems increasingly unlikely -- and there will be hell to pay in 2006 and beyond. Eventually, I'm sure Americans will figure out that they've been completely hoodwinked.
     
  13. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #13
    now you're seeing the light! the pessimistic light, perhaps, but it's still a light!
     
  14. diamond geezer macrumors regular

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    #14
    link
     
  15. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #15
    heh heh, we posted that at about the same time.

    mine is in a new thread
     
  16. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

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    #16
    "Cynical" would be the word I'd use instead of pessimistic, since it's a bitter view that carries a semblance of hope.
     
  17. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #17
    I disremember whose war it was, way, way back before even my time. anyhow, a soldier on night guard duty cries out, "Sir! I have caught a Tatar!"

    The officer responds, "Let him go!"

    "I can't! He won't let me!"

    One of the more important comments in all the cites, it seems to me, is, ""If you are a Muslim and the community is under occupation by a non-Islamic power it becomes a religious requirement to resist that occupation," Terrill explained."

    This of course parallels bin Laden's reasoning for his hostility toward the U.S., given his comments about our presence in Saudi Arabia. It also shows--I think--that the insurgents are less pro-Saddam than they are anti-outsider.

    'Rat
     
  18. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #18
    agreed
     
  19. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #19
    I'd also capitalise "agreed." ;)
     
  20. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #20
    if only i could skate!! :)
     
  21. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #21
    Yes or perhaps more accurately, anti-occupier. Now, anyone care to take any wagers over whether the administration will ever admit this?
     
  22. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #22
    Falling on one's sword is not something the members of this venal administration is ever likely to understand.
     
  23. Chip NoVaMac macrumors G3

    Chip NoVaMac

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    #23
    I think that Bush and Co. looked at Iraq at this time to be a cakewalk. This is based on some of the short successes that the US military had in battle. Nobody ever thought of the long term results of doing a war in Iraq at this point in time. And the military and the Iraqi innocents are paying the price for greed driven goals.
     
  24. SPG macrumors 65816

    SPG

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    #24
    Do you guys remember during the buildup to the invasion a poster named "Ovi" or something like that? Used to come in and tell us all how it's going to be a cakewalk and we'll find all the WMD's and he's buddies with all these guys who let him watch the militairy do desert training?
    Remember how confident that little prick was? No matter how much evidence we showed him, he was always right? Think about that guy for a while and then you'll understand exactly how we wound up where we are today. Under a normal administration, people who thought like that would be tossed out, not given full unconditional support.
     
  25. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #25
    He was only one of the Tarzan crowd. We had macfan and a bunch of others beating their breasts so loudly you couldn't hear yourself think. Somebody should dig up those threads. They might make for interesting historical reading.

    I wonder where all of those guys have gone. Probably off somewhere telling people they were right all along.
     

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