iPhone Demand Waning?

Discussion in 'iOS Blog Discussion' started by MacRumors, Jul 24, 2007.

  1. macrumors bot

    MacRumors

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    Following news that there were 146,000 iPhone activations in the first 36 hours of sale, analysts are showing disappointment, and are changing their forecasts.

    Bloomberg.com relates that analyst Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray & Co. downgraded his prediction of units sold during the first few days from 500,000 to 200,000, calling AT&T's activation results "disappointing." However, he does not change his view that the iPhone will help propel Apple's growth, and maintains an "outperform" rating on Apple's stock.

    In addition, CIBC World Markets indicates their data is showing demand for the iPhone is declining, suggesting that Apple may try to spur sales by increasing marketing efforts.

    Apple's stock was down 5% as of this writing, sitting at $136.38.

    Article Link
     
  2. macrumors 6502a

    KD7IWP

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  3. arn
    macrumors god

    arn

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    #3
    This just goes back to the fact that Analysts know almost nothing.

    They predicted 500,000 and now are predicting 200,000 based on the activation numbers?

    Where did they get 500,000? They took a wild guess it seems.

    arn
     
  4. macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #4

    ummm.arn..

    If analyst know almost nothing why is this topic here? I'ts based on "analysts" :)
     
  5. arn
    macrumors god

    arn

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    #5
    I didn't post it. Blame longofest. :)

    arn
     
  6. macrumors 65816

    chr1s60

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    #6
    I think everyone is freaking out too much about this "low" number. This does not represent the number of iPhones sold, only activated in the first 36 hours. Lets not forget that many people bought to sell, some bought and waited for an activation hack, and then there is the likely large number of online orders from Apple that didn't even ship til a few days into July. There is also the "2%" that had activation problems, my guess is that it was more than 2%. The number sold is probably closer to about 400,000. This number is not bad! If analyst wouldn't have went crazy and projected stupid numbers this wouldn't be a problem.
     
  7. macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #7
  8. macrumors 68000

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    #8
    I never believe anything an analyst says - they're just hired to make a bunch of statements to move stocks up or down. The analysts on bloomberg, ubs, hedge fund companies are always wrong - it's the best job in the world.
     
  9. macrumors 601

    stoid

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    #9
    Great, because there hasn't been enough iPhone news already. :rolleyes:
     
  10. macrumors 65816

    Dippo

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    #10
    The analysts know NOTHING!
    They didn't know how many iPhone sold then, and the don't know how many sold now. The AT&T activation number means almost nothing.

    I can't see Apple saying that iPhone sales were a disappointment, so I think there will be good news tomorrow, but who really knows?? I sure don't.
     
  11. macrumors member

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    #11
    Apple needs to deliver a bangin software/firmware update that give landscape keys in email/sms, and active sync/exchange solution that is actually worth its weight, and maybe some more sweet apps that they have been tinkering with to add to the empty line on the home screen. A really good update would squash a lot of the "negatives" about the iPhone, and a lot of people on the fence would probably give in.
     
  12. macrumors regular

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    #12
    wow - finally 'real' numbers and suddenly the analysts start to sound like steve ballmer...

    to me it sounds like motivation for a nice software upgrade...
     
  13. macrumors 68000

    Jovian9

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    #13
    I agree. I bought a 4GB iPhone the day after they released but didn't activate it for a week (when I was able to find an 8GB iPhone as well). I'm sure there are countless people who did not get these activated the first 2 days.

    .....loving the phone......and so is everyone I show it to. Without saying a word and just letting them look at it I've convinced 3 other people to buy one already :)
     
  14. macrumors member

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    #14
    Right on...it can't be too far out. In addition to some overlooked features from v1.0, there a plenty of little bugs to squash.
     
  15. macrumors 68020

    killerrobot

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    #15
    So 2% of 146,000 + 146,000= 400,000? :confused:

    Even if they doubled their sells on Sunday, that only makes 300,000.

    I do totally agree that analysts went crazy and projected stupid numbers.
     
  16. macrumors 68020

    mainstreetmark

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    #16
    ...................and fix the crashing.
     
  17. macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #17
    Keep in mind that "2%" figure came from the company that was having the activation problem.They were trying to downplay the problem.I'd put it at more than 30%
     
  18. macrumors 68000

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    #18
    Based on what? The number of people moaning in forums about it?
     
  19. macrumors 65816

    chr1s60

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    #19
    That isn't what I said. I am saying that first off, the number of activation problems was likely quite a bit higher than 2%.

    On top of those who had activation problems and didn't get activated in the first 36 hours there is a large number of people who ordered from Apple.com and did not have their phone yet in order to activate. Then there are the people who bought to put it on ebay and a small number of people who bought waiting for an activation hack.

    146,000 reported activated + higher than 2% with activation problems + Apple.com sales + ebay sales and activation hack sales = in my opinion, probably around 400,000 sold. 400,000 is probably a high estimate from me too.
     
  20. macrumors P6

    Peace

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    #20

    Yes.

    I believe MR represents the demographic most likely to buy an iPhone.And since there was a big outcry about failed activations it tells me there were more from other demographics.
     
  21. macrumors regular

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    #21
    Maybe the 2% is low, but I think 30% is high. IMHO - Those of us who activated in < 5 minutes are not going to be as vocal as those who had problems.

    Somehow - at 30% my math says 43K people with 600 dollar paperweights... and that is just in the first 30 hours. That's almost enough to get a house subcommittee convened. They would still be cleaning up the mess today if they had that many problems.
     
  22. Editor emeritus

    longofest

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    #22
    Poop on you guys. At least I didn't put it on front page. Oh, then we'd all be a bundle of joy. :eek: ;)

    I thought the quote was kind of interesting... I wonder what stores the CIBC guys visited. I'm not going to slam them in the actual post, but I'll slam them here... I seriously doubt that people are going into an Apple Store and NOT checking out the iPhone. Do I have data to back me up? No, but its probably a good assumption anyways.

    I think the analysts got a little over-hyped about the iPhone. Apple's forecast is for 10 million sales in calendar year 2008. 10 million phones over 365 days means Apple will have to sell just under 28,000 iPhones per day to meet/beat that goal.

    Obviously, Apple/ATT won't continue to sell at a clip of 146,000 every 31 hours (it may waver a bit before either starting a trend up or down depending on long-term success), but their starting numbers aren't bad at all for making their goals.
     
  23. macrumors 68020

    megfilmworks

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    #23
    No matter what the guesses, the bottom line is for this last quarter, this quarter, and several quarters to come Apple and att will be having a very nice growth spurt
     
  24. macrumors 68020

    killerrobot

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    #24
    Yeah, I got you. But at least it seems more reasonable than the 500-750 the damm analysts proposed. They really should be drug out into the streets and shot. :eek:
     
  25. macrumors regular

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    CA
    #25
    Maybe I am an idiot, but... does AT&T use GMT or ... Alaska time or some bizzare deadline for the end of their quarter? I don't get 36 hours here. 6-12 on the 29th equals 6 and then 24 on the 30th... so that is 30 hours right? hmmmm and if they did use GMT it's actually even less...
     

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