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Is a 'Perfect Storm' of Mac Sales on the Horizon?

Discussion in 'MacBytes.com News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Jul 29, 2006.

  1. macrumors bot

  2. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Wishful thinking, but I like it. ;)
  3. macrumors regular


    I am waiting to see if the mini will get an upgrade. I am looking to buy two of them (my PC just crashed big time, and my brother's did too). Thank god for my trusty ibook g3)
  4. Mal
    macrumors 603


    Actually, I don't see a lot of wishful thinking there, just a lot of good observations. Made a lot of sense to me, and I think we're set to see a huge upswing in Apple's marketshare, and hopefully the extra income and image boost will be the incentive it takes for them to bring some more risky projects to light. I think the next decade is going to be a very interesting one for the computer industry as a whole, and Apple is going to be at the forefront or else disappear entirely (obviously, I'm leaning toward the former).

  5. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Wishful thinking, to the extent that an OSX upgrade will drive Mac sales. Leopard will be the fifth major update to OSX in almost as many years, yet it's difficult to argue that any one of them have improved the Mac's market share thus far. The Windows Vista delay benefiting Apple is also quite speculative, if only because Vista is already not highly anticipated by PC users, and is not in itself likely to boost new PC sales substantially. The place where I think he's right on is the pro side of Mac hardware. A lot of pent-up demand in this part of the Mac market, waiting for the new Intel machines. Apple could get a short-term boost here, just has they have with laptops so far this year. But they have to find a way to hang onto the increase if it's going to be a meaningful gain instead of just a one-time goose.
  6. macrumors member

    wedge antilies

    No, not wishful thinking

    I don't think this article is wishful thinking at all. Tha author is 100% correct in summation that when Adobe upgrades their software to Universal, there will be a huge jump in pro sales. I know four of my friends waiting to upgrade. I only upgraded to my new iMac, as it was the new fin. year in Aust, and my company upgrades my computer from G4. If I had had a G5, I would have not got an intel iMac.
    Apple is in for a HUGE year. :)
  7. macrumors 68000


    Im waiting to buy a Mini too....
  8. macrumors G4


    I think so too, go Apple! :D :)
  9. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Since you don't seem to find any grounds to disagree with the specific points where I thought the article deals in wishful thinking, and only agreed with the one where I thought it wasn't wishful thinking... then I don't see where we depart.

    Anyway, I agree Apple will sell a lot more pro Macs over the coming year, particularly when the pro applications go dual-binary. But I also need to point out that this could easily be a one-time hit on Mac sales, as current owners of pro hardware dump their old Macs for new Macs. It won't necessarily represent a growth in market share unless Apple can convert Windows users to Mac users. This has always been the tougher nut to crack, and I don't think Morgenstern has made a truly compelling case for why this hardware transition is different than any of the others which came before in that respect. I wish Apple had a real plan for this, but other than running ad campaigns, I haven't really seen one yet.
  10. macrumors 68030


    I can only see one way of converting windows users to the Apple fold, buying a smaller PC company into the fold. Take Velocity Micro for example, they're well respected for quality, have a similar sense of style to Apple, have a fuller lineup than Apple, and have a distribution agreement with best buy. Add a MATX model with standard intergrated graphics and sell it at best buy and we'd have a winner. Best of both worlds. However, it'd require a lot of hardcore Mac users to admit that Apple doesn't have all the answers for all computer users.
  11. macrumors regular


    I know it's not the best machine out there, but it is too cool :cool:. Besides, I want to still run windows sometimes and this machine will do just fine.
  12. macrumors 68000


    I think PC users are starting to realize the replacement for Vista is really OSX Tiger. For me, it's a no brainer. Now if we can get PC-only developers to develop for the Mac, things might change. But naturally, a lot of people are wary of a single company controlling both the hardware and software, so maybe that's why Macs will never dominate against the PC/Windows/Linux platform.
  13. macrumors newbie

    Everyone's been saying this for like, 2 years.
  14. macrumors 6502

    Apple's future

    Actually longer than that, and that is because logic would dictate that many PC users should have switched a long time ago - but they didn't.
    You have read all the arguments why and why not.. some valid, some not. But Apple has done one thing and that is it bottomed out and has begun to climb. This is highly significant since it is the first time in over a decade that it has gained market-share. There is no doubt that the iPod has had some halo effect.

    There is so much more positive press than ever before, PC magazines actually rate Macs now and they have been very well received, more novice Mac users are going into Apple stores in record numbers, the switch to Intel has brought nothing but a positive aura to the platform and atypical users are beginning to show interest in the Mac, and that includes non-Mac developers.

    Now, it hasn't bought Apple 10% market share but without the above Apple would have gone to less than 1% by now, so observation implies that Apple is gaining traction. It will be slow, as was its decline, but this is really a different Mac world.
  15. macrumors 68040


    I think the article could be right on the money. From my personal experience I could believe that, providing Apple is quick to rectify the teething problems that have existed with the Intel transition this far, the perfect storm really is a possibility.
  16. macrumors 68020


    2007 will be a biggy for Apple. The stock price is starting to come back to where I purchased mine at. There are a number of factors that are going to come into play:
    The continued delays in releasing Vista
    Intel can supply MORE than enough chips for Apple
    Power Macs and Xserves being updated to run on Intel
    The most crucial of all Mac applications coming out as a Universal Binary
    The continued and increasing interest of Windows users in the Mac platform

    That would be the top 5 things I can think of.
  17. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    I've got to ask, for those who think the delay in shipping Vista will matter to Apple. Why?
  18. macrumors 6502a

    I've got to answer... If your old car broke down and it needed to be replaced, would you buy the same model car you just got rid of? Or would you rather shop around for newer, nicer, more featured cars that maybe even cost the same (or less!) than the car being replaced?

    OS X and Macs provide that option to consumers who need to replace tired old (and virus-infested) computers. And nothing makes computers feel more old, tired, and slow than spiffy new processors.

    Now, Vista may not even be close to offering what even Tiger offers now, but we don't know that. Some PC users will still hold out for Vista under the assumption that it will be awesome. But there has got to be a sub-set that looks at OS X and thinks, "dag, yo. i could have an awesome computer now, and I need one now, so why wait?"

    Why wait, indeed.
  19. macrumors 68030


    From an OS viewpoint, OSX's only real drawback is that's tied to niche hardware.
  20. macrumors 6502a

    For the sake of argument... what if next generation OSs relied on that tie between OS and hardware to deliver otherwise impossible integration? Does this give OS X an advantage?

    Multipoint touch-screen, or "none-touch" (or whatever) and gestures seem like it would require a fair amount of hardware/software integration. The kind demonstrated by iPod/iTunes.
  21. macrumors 68020


    Since Leopard will most likely be able to run side by side with XP I think this will have some degree of knock-on effect with people and IT departments who are looking to add and upgrade their hardware thus causeing them to be able to add an Intel Mac while 'waiting' for Vista to arrive thus expanding the Mac user base.
  22. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Even if I accepted the analogy, and I think it has some issues, I don't see where the question's been answered. I expect most savvy Windows users know from hard experience that the first version (at least) of any new edition Windows is essentially a beta, and will break a lot of their old software. And I have yet to hear anyone say, "If Microsoft doesn't release Vista soon, I'm going to buy a Mac!" Have you?

    I wish it weren't true, but it is. Microsoft could futz around with Vista from now until 2009 and it wouldn't make a significant difference to Apple.
  23. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Possibly, but this seems to be quite a marginal opportunity to me, and is predicated on some degree of "waiting" for Vista, and I don't know anyone who's crossing off days on their calendars in anticipation. Apple can release five new versions of the MacOS in the time it takes Microsoft to release one of Windows. This has been going on for a long time, but it never seems to make much difference, except to those of us who own Macs and count on Apple to come up with steady improvements.

    Windows users don't care about the latest release of OSX; the vast majority probably don't even know it's happened. In fact many if not most Windows users aren't more than dimly aware that the Mac even exists, let alone whether Leopard beat Vista to the market. This is the problem Apple needs to solve.
  24. macrumors 6502a


    I believe the hardware switch that many will have to make in order to run Vista is the key. If informed enough, they may pick up new hardware that has an OS that delivers what Longhorn promised and that can run their old copy of XP.
  25. macrumors 6502a


    I was thinking the exact same thing, its nice that apple advertises the platfrom, but they really need to inform the public that there is an alternative to vista thats going to be released before vista! People might know about vista, and the mac but they have very little indept knowledge, some of the people here at work still go "oooo" when I use expose, even though its a rather old feature for the mac os, point is apple needs to make people aware of the advanced features before vista is finally released and the people go "oh, vista does that as well"

    I personally think the next few months will be good for apple, all they need to do is try and keep up the momentum and they will do very very well.

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