It's time to make your final predictions

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thomas Veil, Nov 3, 2012.

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What do you think will happen?

Poll closed Nov 6, 2012.
  1. Romney, electoral and popular win, by a comfortable margin

    15 vote(s)
    13.3%
  2. Romney, electoral and popular win, by a razor-thin margin

    11 vote(s)
    9.7%
  3. Romney, electoral loss but popular win

    12 vote(s)
    10.6%
  4. Obama, electoral loss but popular win

    1 vote(s)
    0.9%
  5. Obama, electoral and popular win, by a razor-thin margin

    36 vote(s)
    31.9%
  6. Obama, electoral and popular win, by a comfortable margin

    38 vote(s)
    33.6%
  1. Thomas Veil, Nov 3, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012

    macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #1
    What do you think is going to happen?

    Regarding the poll, by a "razor-thin margin", I mean something resembling Florida 2000 or Ohio 2004.

    Personally I don't think that's going to happen. I think we'll be surprised to see Obama win by a margin which is not narrow enough to be challenged via courts or recounts.

    The only real wild card I see is whether states that have been ravaged by Sandy will be able to get their voting systems up and running on time.
     
  2. macrumors 65816

    citizenzen

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    #2
    Not gonna make a prediction.

    Just going to live with whatever happens.
     
  3. macrumors 603

    mrkramer

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Location:
    Somewhere
    #3
    I think Romney gets the popular vote while Obama picks up enough swing states by narrow margins to win the electoral college. Hopefully if this happens then the fact that both parties will have had an election stolen from them in the space of 12 years will be enough for them to work together to get rid of the electoral college.
     
  4. macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2001
    Location:
    Charleston, SC
    #4
    But is the Electoral College a bad thing?

    Why would any national candidate campaign in a rural or less populated area without it? We'd only see candidates in densely populated urban areas and large state where they can reach the most people.

    Simply put, it helps balance the urban and rural areas and the densely and sparsely populated states.

    Abolishing it altogether is highly unlikely since it would require a constitutional amendment. Too many small and less populous states would easily block it.

    I say keep the Electoral College, but reform it so that it's impossible to win without a majority of people voting for you.

    Personally - I don't expect a scenario this year where one candidate loses the popular vote and wins the electoral vote. Nor do I expect a tie.
     
  5. iJohnHenry, Nov 3, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012

    macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #5
    Yes. <Well, you asked.>

    Under its auspices, some people are more equal than others.

    And how old is this fabled institution?

    Source.

    So, let us take the 12th Amendment as the start.

    In the time since we have come to conquere many fields, yet having this political 'bible' updated is a harder task than changing the actual scriptures themselves.
     
  6. macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2006
    #6
    The biggest problem is they only car about a small handful of states and are very willing to bend over backwards to make those small handful of states happy. Solid Red or Blue states get the short end of the stick and are always ground for political punishment.
    Both Bush and Obama did political punishment to the solid states and did a lot of special things for the swing states no matter how they voted.
     
  7. Ugg
    macrumors 68000

    Ugg

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2003
    Location:
    Penryn
    #7
    Yeah, and what about California? ~13% of the population yet neither Romney nor Obama have spent 13% of their campaigning time here.
     
  8. macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2008
    Location:
    Alaska
    #8
    My predictions:

    1. Romney by a large lead or a small lead

    2. Obama by a small lead
     
  9. macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #9
    We need to have a coffee together.

    How is next Wednesday morning suit you?
     
  10. macrumors 65816

    citizenzen

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    #10
    Following AlaskaMoose's lead, I also boldly predict that either Romney or Obama will win.

    ;)
     
  11. macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2001
    Location:
    Charleston, SC
    #11
    I agree the EC isn't perfect (which is an understatement). Pragmatically speaking, a simple majority should win the election. Without the EC, would we see any campaigning in non-urban and low populated areas?

    Granted, we only see campaigning in a select number of "swing states" which don't seem to change all that much between election cycles. Without the EC, we'd see campaigning in even fewer "swing cities."

    It should at least be reformed. That would be far easier to do than abolishing it. One congressman has put forward an idea to award the winner of the popular vote an additional number of electoral votes. I like this solution. (Can't remember the name right off hand...)
     
  12. macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #12
    How is this even a problem?

    In this day and age these areas are fully capable of knowing each candidate's position, if they have one. ;)

    Is the issue simply the economic boost that candidates would bring to that state? If so, that's really simplistic.
     
  13. macrumors 68030

    APlotdevice

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2011
    #13
    Obama will win the electoral college. By how much and whether he will get the popular vote I couldn't say.
     
  14. macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2008
    #14
    If California weren't guaranteed to vote left of Lenin, it would make sense to campaign there. The state hasn't gone Republican since 1988. So why would either party waste the time? Candidates spend time and money where the EC isn't a lock.
     
  15. macrumors 68040

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
  16. Guest

    Joined:
    May 8, 2008
    #16
    Mitt!?
     
  17. macrumors P6

    Peace

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2005
    Location:
    Space--The ONLY Frontier
    #17
    I hope you're being humorous right ? Left of Lenin ?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenin
     
  18. macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2008
    Location:
    On tenterhooks
    #18
    Point.

    Maybe he can use left of Pol Pot, if it isn't taken?
     
  19. macrumors 68040

    bradl

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    #19
    I don't know if I find it more shocking that Katy Perry seems to have more brains than Lindsey Lohan. I know it's a tall task, but my respect for Perry has risen quite a bit.

    BL.
     
  20. macrumors 65816

    citizenzen

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2010
    #20
    He/she overlooks the fact that the majority (by a good number) of Californian governors have been Republican.
     
  21. macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2002
    Location:
    Sarasota FL
    #21
    My prediction is 538 will be largely correct yet again. Obama wins buy a small, but indisputable margin in the PV and by a fair amount in the EC.
     
  22. macrumors 68040

    bradl

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    #22
    My other prediction, with 100% accuracy, is that all of these damned political ads will be gone and we won't have to worry about them inundating our ears every other minute of the bloody day.

    If they don't make you want to jump off a cliff, having the radio stations play 24 hours of Christmas music until Christmas Day will.

    BL.
     
  23. macrumors 6502

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #23
    Wow. You commit to one position about as good as Romney does! LOL
     
  24. macrumors 68040

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    #24
    Let's see how fast the GOP forgets about the Benghazi attack after the election. ;)

    Cueing ....... Alvin & The Chipmunks "Christmas time is here". :D
     
  25. macrumors 603

    mrkramer

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Location:
    Somewhere
    #25
    The electoral college means that my vote in California doesn't really count. Which I guess is nice since then I don't have to hear as many adds for the presidential election, but still if the Republicans ever ran an actually good candidate or there was a viable third party I'd like to be able to vote for them and not have my vote canceled out by the rest of the state going one way. And the Electoral college doesn't really balance urban and rural, all it does is make the campaign happen in a couple swing states with fundraising stops in the safe states.
     

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