Kerry blows Dean away in New Hampshire

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Durandal7, Jan 27, 2004.

  1. Durandal7 macrumors 68040

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    Feb 24, 2001
    #1
    The Massachusetts senator won_39 percent of the vote with_48 percent of_precincts reporting as of_9:05 p.m._EST, according to Fox News projecting.

    Former Vermont Gov._Howard Dean took second place in the nation's first primary with 25 percent of the vote, while North Carolina Sen._John Edwards and retired Army_Gen. Wesley Clark were duking it out for third place with 12 percent. Connecticut_Sen. Joe Lieberman had 9 percent of the vote.

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,109676,00.html
     
  2. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #2
    I'm interested in seeing who takes third and how Clark and Edwards showing will effect them next week. I think this will put Dean up against it in next weeks primaries. I would expect to see Kerry, Clark, or Edwards battle it out in some of the states next Tuesday.
     
  3. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #3
    I try to resist this kind of punditry, but here goes a prediction for South Carolina:

    Edwards, Kerry, Clark, Dean.
     
  4. yamabushi macrumors 65816

    yamabushi

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    #4
    So which candidates do you think will become vp candidates?
     
  5. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #5
    The last two primaries certainly help Kerry tremendously, but don't make the mistake in assuming the race for the Presidential nominee is over. Let's see how Kerry does in the South and West first. If Kerry does win then a southerner as a VP is the conventional wisdom, so Edwards or Clark would be natural considerations.

    IJ, I think your projections for South Carolina are very possible, but Sharpton will get a large percentage of the black vote and the polls show Edwards at 32%, Clark at 17%, Dean at 16%, and Kerry at 13%. All of this could change dramatically after the New Hampshire results. What is too often forgotten is that Missouri, Arizona, Oklahoma, Delaware, North Dakota, and New Mexico also vote on the same day. Missouri and Arizona are bigger prizes in the delegate race than South Carolina. Next week will tell a lot about who can attract voters from diverse regions.
     
  6. g5man macrumors newbie

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    #6
    Let me be the first to admit I was wrong in predicting this nomination won't be decided until March. Now that we have gone through two major and important primaries, I can safely say Kerry will get the nomination unofficially before March. Anybody can say that, however. After hearing Dean for the last couple of days, I was wrong about stating he will not step aside quietly. Some of his supporters may not automatically vote for Kerry, but now I do see Dean willing to back the eventual nominee. The only people I now feel sorry for is the suckers who keep giving him money. Now if he does cut back on his spending, he may be able to transfer the remaning funds to Kerry when he steps aside.

    I have yet to understand why the rest are staying in the race. McCaulif did state that if none of Candidates besides Kerry do not win a single state after Feb 3, they need to consider steping aside.

    This one time I hope that I am wrong. I want this process to last until the summer.

    So tonight I am sad. The campaign will start sooner that I would have liked. Let the games begin.
    ;)
     
  7. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #7
    I'm trying to recall the last time a winning presidential candidate from either party picked one of the losing candidates as a running mate (Reagan-Bush in 1980 perhaps?). It doesn't happen very often anymore. If one of these guys moves out into a solid lead, that increases their options, and they usually exercise the option to choose somebody they haven't had to debate over the months of primaries. A scenario could develop where it's necessary to form the ticket that way, but only if two of them go into the convention without a clear majority of the delegates, and that seems unlikely.

    Yup, I realize that South Carolina is only one of several primaries on the same day, and not the most important in terms of delegates, I just thought it would be fun to throw down a few markers on that one and see if they pay off.
     
  8. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #8
    I think you're right. Bentsen ran in '76 not in '88, Gore ran in '88 (and of course 2000) but not in '92, Ferraro did not run in '84 (did she ever run for President? I don't think so), Qualye ran in 2000 but not in 1988. Lieberman, Kemp, and Cheney didn't do it. So I think you're right; Bush was the last VP nominee that ran for President in the same year.
     
  9. wwworry macrumors regular

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    #9
    I am looking forward to a long primary season with close races. I think it's good that democrats have choices and time to discuss the issues. I am not in favor, at this point, of someone being "annointed" just as long as, after the convention, people unite behind the candidate.
     
  10. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #10
    I watched the Shields-Brooks wrap of the primary last night on the NewsHour. Mark Shields offered the observation that it might be beneficial to the Democrat's cause for the primary season to run long, because for as long as the party hasn't selected a candidate, the heavily funded Bush war machine remains in neutral. The moment a clear nominee breaks out, he'll be attacked.
     

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