Kerry, Edwards, Dean - Gephardt drops out

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jayb2000, Jan 19, 2004.

  1. jayb2000 macrumors 6502a

    jayb2000

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    #1
    The Iowa caucuses are in and it looks like
    1 - Kerry 38%
    2 - Edwards 32%
    3 - Dean 18%
    4 - Gephardt 11%

    Gephard has dropped out.

    So, Braun is out, Gephardt is Out.
    Of the 7 left, Lieberman, Kuncinich and Sharpton are EXTREMELY unlikely to get more than 1 or 2%, so we look to be choosing among
    Kerry, Edwards, Dean or Clark.

    Of those 4, assuming you are not voting for Bush, who do you like and why?

    I like Dean, but I am from New England, and like his fiscal conservatism and social liberalism.
     
  2. jamdr macrumors 6502a

    jamdr

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    #2
    Re: Kerry, Edwards, Dean - Gephardt drops out

    Congratulations, you just defined the U.S. Democratic party.
     
  3. LaMerVipere macrumors 6502a

    LaMerVipere

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    #3
    I know that Iowa is historically inaccurate at predicting the eventual nominee, but I have to say that this is very exciting!

    I have always liked Kerry. :)
     
  4. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #4
    For the next week all we will hear is about how Kerry is looking invincible and Dean is on his last legs. The nature of US political reporting is absurd.

    I like Kerry and am glad to see his campaign strengthened by Iowa, however only Gephardt was in a make or break situation. We will see if Kerry's win helps in New Hampshire and if Clark and Dean's poll number hold up. It looks to me like this will go at least to the March California primaries before we have a winner.
     
  5. DavisBAnimal macrumors member

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    #5
    While it may have only been "make or break" for Gephardt, I think this is a HUGE victory of Edwards. He basically came all the way from barely registering as a blip in the poles to coming in at a close second. I think this is great for him - it's going to get a whole lot more eyes on his campaign, and hopefully give him momentum into New Hampshire, then on into his "make or break" state of South Carolina.

    I'm an Edwards fan - I was big into Dean for a while (less so nowadays) and I always appreciated that while Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman were busy being worthless, crybaby weenies anytime Dean said anything at all - jumping on every "gaff" made by Dean and annoyingly ramming it into the ground - Edwards kept quite, and was generally much much more pleasant. He didn't seem to feel the need to jump onto every possible criticism and drag it out to an obscene degree.

    I think Kerry's a bit of tool, I think Lieberman's a bit of a squid, and I'm starting to think Dean's a pretty big dick-head (I recently caught some video footage of Dean angrily yelling at some old guy at a Q&A cause the guy was over his time limit). Frankly, I don't think there's much wrong with having a president whose a real big dick-head, but it seems to me that most people don't vote for who they think will run the country the best, but more so who'd they rather see on TV every night for the next four years. Say what you will about GW's short-sighted econmic and foreign policy, but it seems like the general public think he's an alright dude, when it comes down to it, and despite that cocky grin (or perhaps because of it), they generally welcome his presence, even if they disagree with his policies. Frankly, Dean comes off as too much of an ass-munch to have a good enough chance of winning over that crucial group of voters who like the president, but dislike his handling of the country.

    Clark and Edwards, on the other hand, seem like much more agreeable characters, and have a much better chance of taking out President G. W. Cocky-Smirk. For me, it's a toss-up between those two.

    Jan. 27th here we come!!

    Davis
     
  6. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #6
    i'll be very interested to see how everything shapes up in NH once Clark is factored in.

    i don't have a warm and fuzzy that Dean can beat Bush. my early impression is that Clark has the best chance; not sure about Kerry or Edwards 'til i get to know them better.

    things are getting interesting...
     
  7. SPG macrumors 65816

    SPG

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    #7
    I'm a little surprised Dean didn't do better. I heard there were a lot of negative anti-Dean ads running in Iowa, so maybe that had an effect. I still like the guy, as I liked him when he was my governor a little while back.
    I don't think that Iowa will decide the nominee alone, but it will thin the heard as Gephardt is proving. Where are the Gephardt supporters going to wind up next week? Behind Clark? Kerry? Edwards? Dean? I don't think there's a bad guy in the bunch (except maybe Lieberman) so I'll proudly support whoever comes out of this race.

    One thing to remember about this whole deal...even though bush's approve number is 50%, his dissapprove number is 45%. That's a historical high for someone with a 50%. Remember "uniter not a divider."
     
  8. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #8
    Fascinating results. Unless Dean pulls a "come back kid" performance in NH, it's going to be said that he peaked too soon, as in, before the first primary. He is obviously going to get a run for his money in New England from Kerry, and I'd expect Clark to do well there too. The real dark horse here has to be Edwards. Either he really connected with the party members in Iowa, or Democrats are beginning to get the reality that it's really difficult for them to win the White House with a candidate from outside of the South.
     
  9. SPG macrumors 65816

    SPG

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  10. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #10
    the iowa race is just the first small contest and it's hard to tell who best fares against dean, the overall frontrunner in national polls

    after all the tough campaigning is done, i hope the nominee, whoever he is, chooses the second or third place finisher as a running mate to make the strongest possible run for the white house against the strong bush-cheney camp

    bush has the rising economy for now and will be very hard to beat if the economy continues to grow since it will be the single most looked at issue come november...i am glad for the bright spots ahead in the us economy but i won't forget that we had a bad three years when i cast my ballot
     
  11. SPG macrumors 65816

    SPG

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    #11
    hey jef, just a couple points to consider. National polls in a nomination are nearly meaningless because there is no national contest, but a series of state contests in the primaries with very different dynamics as Iowa proved tonight.

    As I've noted before bush's disapproval rate is 45% which is startling for someone who in the same poll clocks in at 50% approve.

    The economy may look better in numbers that wall street likes, such as productivity and corporate earnings, but the numbers that matter to real people who vote are jobs and personal income. We're between 2 and 3 million jobs short of where we were when bush walked into the White House. If the economy improves without providing jobs any candidate will point out that the bush economic plan is doing what it set out to do...make the rich richer while exporting your job. Any evidence and numbers that bush can use to counter that will only reinforce it.
    What about Iraq? Not going so well over there is it? How's that going to play?
    I don't think it will be the landslide the conservatives are crowing about.
     
  12. wwworry macrumors regular

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    #12
    the latest poll results from the NYTimes still show a democrat beating bush in 2004 (sorry can't find the link). However, the interesting thing is that even though most people won't be voting for Bush, most people see him winning the election. I guess we are trained that way.

    also most see him looking out for the interests of big business, etc.

    http://nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/20040118_poll/20040118poll_results.pdf
     
  13. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #13
    I find it interesting that the voting percentages were at such variance with the late polls. The pollsters had the front four as a statistical dead heat. :)

    jef, your comment, "bush has the rising economy for now and will be very hard to beat if the economy continues to grow since it will be the single most looked at issue come november...i am glad for the bright spots ahead in the us economy but i won't forget that we had a bad three years when i cast my ballot" leads me to the one area where I actually will "rise up" to defend Bush.

    The seeds of the three bad economic years were sown and cultivated during the 1990s. The harvest began during 2000, before Bush was elected. And in an economic system as gigantic as that of the U.S., the sheer size creates an inertia which precludes any sort of immediate turnaround.

    End of support. :)

    I've noted elsewhere that I'm not very optimistic about the way things are going in the economy...

    'Rat
     
  14. jayb2000 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    jayb2000

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    #14
    Definetly. I think a Dean/Edwards ticket with Clark as Secretary of Defense would get almost all moderate and liberal voters, which would be an easy majority.
     
  15. G4scott macrumors 68020

    G4scott

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    #15
    Well, now that Dean came in third, apparently he lost his cool. Take this audio file for example...

    I don't know if we really want someone as 'jumpy' as Dean in the oval office. He just seems to be in an 'anti-Bush' state of mind, and it's kinda scary listening to him now...

    He almost sounds like Steve Ballmer... ughhh...
     
  16. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

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    #16
    2 weeks ago the media had said Dean won this race, what a difference 2 weeks can make. i am undecided. but any of the 4 have to have better spending habits then George.
     
  17. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #17
    Ain't that the truth -- he'd almost been anointed. I can understand why, though. Dean is a good story, and no matter how his candidacy works out in the end, he'll get credit for breathing new life into his party.
     
  18. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #18
    as the media, pundits and iowans kept reminding us the past few days, it's not an election, it's a caucus.

    perhaps that accounts for the inaccuracies moreso than the implied fallacy of polls.
     
  19. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

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    #19
    you are right about the bad seeds of the recession being sown in the 90s

    that is really not under dispute here or the fact that a prez can't do too much in a short time...but again, why the war with iraq while bin laden is still possibly out on the loose? and such an expensive war?...when george bush sr. got blamed for the recession that was here in 1992, i knew full well clinton would take advantage of it and blame the president and make it work in his favor during the election that year...it was actually reagan's voodoo economics of overspending in the military which put america into the early 90s recession...i voted for clinton but did not blame the bad economy on bush sr...i believe bush sr. was actually a decent president who, as history shows, knows how to manage a large scale war...bush jr, on the other hand, is woeful and only a shadow of his father...i would give my right arm to have bush sr in the white house during this uncertain time in iraq and have cheney as defense secretary and powell as our 4 star general in charge of the military...like them or not now, those three were an incredible military team and the best in us history in the most one sided war ever recorded...today, cheney is ineffective as vp, powell is not listened to, and rumsfeld is the worst example of a defense secretary i have ever seen and his fighting with general franks and general shinseki is just shameful...rumsfeld hates the fbi and cia and will not work well with them the way cheney did...if anything, i blame the bad turnout of the war on rumsfeld more than bush jr, but mr W is the president and he will take the heat for it...his approval ratings went from high 70s to 50 and this war and the recession are major reasons
     
  20. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #20
    What's scary is seeing Bush's "deer in the headlights" look during his canned speeches every day. At least Dean's exuberance is spontaneous and genuine.
     
  21. jayb2000 thread starter macrumors 6502a

    jayb2000

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    #21
    Economy

    "The seeds of the three bad economic years were sown and cultivated during the 1990s. The harvest began during 2000, before Bush was elected. And in an economic system as gigantic as that of the U.S., the sheer size creates an inertia which precludes any sort of immediate turnaround."

    If that is correct, then Bush was wrong that the tax cuts had any effect on the economy.
     
  22. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #22
    Re: Economy

    Lol, you hit the nail on the head. Every time the incumbent president sees good economic news he claims credit and when the news is bad he blames it on his predecessor.

    You can't simultaneously claim that the economic cycle is so slow that the previous administration's policies are causing all your woes, and that the economic cycle is so quick that your tax cuts are causing the rebound. It's ludicrous!
     
  23. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #23
    Letterman's List. :D

     
  24. g5man macrumors newbie

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    #24
    Edwards is the one to watch. He was written off long ago, but his charm and good looks will go a long way in a campaign.

    Clark will go down like Dean did so we can say goodby to him as well. Dean is finished.
     
  25. DavisBAnimal macrumors member

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    #25
    I think you got it right, here.

    It seems to me that when people vote for president, they vote less for who they find to be best equiped to run the country, and more for who they wouldn't mind seeing on their TVs every night. This is made evident by the large - very large - number of voters who don't agree with Bush's policies, but tend to think highly of him as a person.

    The Dems don't just need someone who can go after Bush on the issues - they need a nice, pleasant guy with an agreeable demeanor in order to compete with George's calm and polite public persona.

    I think Edwards fits the bill perfectly - Dean's too harsh, yells too much, and is overall kind of mean and at times out of control (my ears are still ringing from seeing him frantically jump all over the stage, straining his voice at that post-Iowa rally). Edwards on the other hand has a great and comprehensive domestic agenda, and is overall the most likeable guy running right now.

    I think he'd be a fine choice - as nice as Bush comes off, but with a much better grasp on the reality of foreign and domestic policy.

    Davis
     

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