Kerry will win, perhaps

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by CubaTBird, Nov 1, 2004.

  1. homerjward macrumors 68030

    homerjward

    Joined:
    May 11, 2004
    Location:
    fig tree
    #2
    never post in the political forums, but:
    isnt that site run by a democrat? not to say that's bad or anything though. i find it interesting that more states are strong bush than are strong kerry, but kerry has enough "weak kerry"s to be ahead. it looks like bush has more states but kerry has the bigger ones...oh well, i'm not of voting age. btw, our school held an "election simulation" today in which we had party meetings in the morning, then a debate and an election in the afternoon. kerry won with 41%, bush has in the low 30's i think and then nader was 3rd and i think socialist after that...
     
  2. LeeTom macrumors 68000

    LeeTom

    Joined:
    May 31, 2004
    #3
    Wow, and you're in San Antonio, TX, too! Good sign!

    Lee Tom
     
  3. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #4
    Can't get through to the site. Probably being flooded with hits.

    Here's another perspective from Slate magazine:

    [​IMG]

    A few days ago it was skewing towards Kerry. I hope they're wrong now.
     
  4. SiliconAddict macrumors 603

    SiliconAddict

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2003
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    #5
    I renig on my previous statement of voting after work, going home, take a stiff drink, and going to bed. I'm going to vote after work, go home, get totally tanked and collapse on the floor. This is insane.
     
  5. SlowX macrumors member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2001
    Location:
    Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
    #6
    HA!
    I think that's what the network wonks did last year!
    ;)
     
  6. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2003
    Location:
    Chi Town
    #7
    electoral-vote doesn't have much bias. The owner, in the interest of full disclosure, expresses his leanings, but if you followed it closely, you would notice that the current electoral standing has been going back and forth. There was quite a while there, especially for weeks after swift boat, that bush was solidly in the 300's, with kerry often in the 100's. So I would say this site is one of the least biased election-predictors out there.
     
  7. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2002
    Location:
    The Bamboo Forest
    #8
    You can try electoral-voteX.com where X is 2-9 (maybe more now even).
     
  8. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2004
    Location:
    St. Louis, MO
    #9
    Im pretty confident Kerry will win assuming Bush & Co doesn't rig this election too. Besides, these polls don't count the tens of thousands newly registered voters registered by the Democrats, and if its anything like 2000 where a canidate won by a few hundred votes, if these new voters turn out and vote for Kerry, he should win by a large margin, big enough that dubya can't even argue
     
  9. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2003
    Location:
    North Carolina
    #10
    Zogby, a pollster I quite admire, has the vote split 252-252, with Florida, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (!) a dead heat.

    link

    FWIW, I picked Kerry on my blog, and I don't expect it to be close.
     
  10. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #11
    Yeeks! :eek:

    Dead heats aside, that Ohio statistic (for Bush) is the most troubling, since we've been a nearly flawless indicator of who's eventually going to win.
     
  11. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2003
    Location:
    North Carolina
    #12
    zogby's updated his site with his final prediction: Kerry 311-213, with NV and CO too close to call.

    Kerry wins FL, OH, PA, IA, MI, MN, NH, NM, and WI
     
  12. jadam macrumors 6502a

    jadam

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2002
    #14
    You do know that either candidate needs 270 votes to win right? so even if its 269vs 268, neither candidate wins out right.
     
  13. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2004
    Location:
    having a drink at Milliways
    #15
    here is to hope!
     
  14. chanoc macrumors 6502

    chanoc

    Joined:
    May 20, 2003
    Location:
    Anchorage, Alaska USA

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