Mac OS X to continue for another 10 or 20 years?

Discussion in ' News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Sep 14, 2010.

  1. macrumors bot

    Jul 5, 2003
  2. macrumors 6502

    Oct 29, 2009
    From the article:
    This is sloppy. Very sloppy. Tevanian's quote does not imply that Apple expects another 10 or 20 years out of OS X. What is quote implies is only what it, in fact, says: That 10 years ago, Apple envisioned a 20-30 year lifespan. To say that today Apple has the same expectation is terrible logic. It's farcical, really, to use decade-old expectations as a roadmap and expect them to still be current.

    I mean, five years ago I expected to be done with grad school by May 2009. By the logic of this "article," this implies that I've been out of school for 15 months. In fact, I had to change my expectation. I will now be finished by December of 2010.
  3. macrumors 603


    Aug 2, 2002
    Cork, Ireland.
    Shouldn't be much of a surprise, there haven't been many significant new developments in desktop OS technologies or design in some time.

    For the most part you want a stable, fast, secure back-end (which OSX has); and the UI is likely to change quite a bit over that period of time. But for the most part, things aren't likely to change much.

    (Murphy's Law: Now that I've said that, there will be some major desktop OS development which will blow current OSs out of the water!)
  4. macrumors 68020


    Jun 22, 2006
    The thick of it
    There already is. It's called iOS. :D
  5. macrumors member

    Jun 11, 2008
    Wow, this article or whatever it is called is definitely written by someone who knows little about OS development.

    First the question must be asked, what IS OS X?
    OS X shares a lot with any other BSD based system, which in turn shares alot with other Linux systems/Unix systems.

    It's more or less 1 umbrella under Unix.
    so saying that OS X is going to last 10-20 years isn't saying much.

    UI can change, the way we interface with the system can change (hardware) but unless the Mach Kernel is totally ditched and they take a totally different aproach in desiginging the lowest level of the OS, then it is not considered a change (or is it?)

    Tiger, Leopard, Snow Leopard have similarities yet major differences in Frameworks and even CPU architecture... so are they the same OS?

    I'd say its more of a branding thing. if they cannot make something that at least LOOK drastically different, (maybe ditching finder and or not having a desktop idea etc) then they won't call it OS XI or 11 or what have you. 10.0-10.6 more or less seems the same, but the underlying technologies are so different that each release is really its own OS
  6. macrumors G4

    Lord Blackadder

    May 7, 2004
    Sod off
    The biggest shift was the switch from Apple's old "Classic" OS that had roots in the original Macintosh OS to the NeXTSTEP/BSD/UNIX-derived OSX. The Intel transition was, in technical terms, a pretty minor event.

    Now that the Mac is an x86-based, UNIX-like OS, I don't see anything fundamental changing for a long time. The iOS family may take on new roles, but I don't see it ever completely replacing the PC line - desktops and laptops will always have substantially more power and features than iOS devices.

    UNIX-derived OSs are very old in computing terms, and I suspect they will be around for the forseeable future. I can easily see OSX's basic underpinnings lasting 30+ years.
  7. macrumors 6502

    this is funah

    Oct 13, 2005
    Berlin, Germany
    i remember Jobs saying that it would last at least a decade back in 2000.
  8. macrumors 68000


    Jun 20, 2007
    They should expand the features even more and call it Mac OS EX.
  9. macrumors 65816


    Sep 15, 2009
    Hermitage, TN
    Well it's been a decade.
  10. macrumors 6502

    Jul 4, 2010
    Washington, D.C.
    And given the current pace, assuming Apple goes through OS X updates as they have been, with 10.7, 10.8, and 10.9 coming before we get a "new" OS 11, they could pretty easily get close to that 20 year projection.
  11. macrumors 603

    Sep 19, 2003
    Ten more years of OS X, maybe. But we are approaching the computing limits of silicon. Whatever comes next (quantum computing?) will require brand-new software. By 2030, I hope OS X doesn't exist.
  12. macrumors 6502a


    Jul 29, 2005

    hmmm...perhaps the successor to Mac OS X should be called X Mac OS :p
  13. macrumors G4

    Jul 17, 2002
    Did you read the same article that I did? First off, what the Hardmac article attributes to Tevanian is not a quote. Neither which repeated the original report nor which first published it claims that the passage is a quote. Now that that is out of the way, to the best of my recollection, what was said was "MacOS X will be the basis of Apple's OS for the next 20 years." This does not contradict the report. It would be perfectly consistent with an announcement tomorrow that the next Macintosh operating system will be named Bulldog. We would know, however, that Bulldog is the evolutionary next step for Apple's OS.

    As for the potential of a new OS released as a bolt out of the blue--ain't gonna happen. New operating system don't come as complete surprises. Various and sundry pieces of them are the subject the subject of academic, professional, and the general interest computer press. Look at Apple. The Lisa OS preceded the Macintosh System. The Lisa OS served as inspiration for NeXTstep. Unix was around for about 10 years prior to the Lisa OS and Unix was a cut-down version of Multics. In the opensource world, remember how long GNU had been around before Linus produced the Linux kernel.

    From where I sit, it appears that the computer world except for Microsoft has settled on Unix. For its part, Apple has tripled-down on AT&T's progeny. Let us not forget that MacOS X is certified UNIX 03, the latest version of the unified (AT&T and BSD) specification. In fact, Apple is assuming the role of proprietor of such import UNIX technologies as CUPS and zeroconf.

    Ten more years? It would surprise me if there is a move away from Unix in the next 50 years.
  14. macrumors 6502

    Aug 19, 2010
    I was under the impression that Apple is already working on a large-scale iOS as a replacement of Mac OS X, which should come within the next 5 years. With many Mac and Windows users already familiar with iOS through the iPhone or iPod, they could do a complete switch as long as all Mac apps are re-programmed accordingly.
  15. macrumors 604


    Sep 8, 2002
    The Netherlands
    iOS is derived from Mac OS X.
    iOS will not replace Mac OS X, they will get more and more of each other's features.
    Finally we might get an  iOS, which can run on iDevices and Macs.
  16. macrumors G4

    Mar 4, 2006
    iOS may have a different interface, but it still counts as OSX.
  17. macrumors regular

    Apr 1, 2009
    Why would a change of how computers process information require a change of software? I the fundamental architecture changes, then it is just tweaks to the kernel and some drivers to change.

    It is like saying that whatever replaces the combustion engine in cars will require a completely new way of driving / new roads, etc.

  18. macrumors 601


    Feb 4, 2004
    Florida Resident
    He said two decades.
  19. macrumors 6502


    Jul 26, 2010
    It's hard to say what more I'd want out of this OS. The general OS aspects is great for day to day tasks and even my work environment. However I feel the iLife suite and macmail etc can be updated. I guess I can only say I'd want more synchronization and unilateral communication between apps. MacMail is really feeling it's age right now and could really do for an overhaul.
  20. macrumors G4

    Jul 17, 2002
    What impression? This is a notion that someone on a forum like this pulled out of their butt. iOS is the new name for iPhone OS which has been named OS X which, in turn, was a newer version of the same code base as MacOS X. The original iPhone shipped with OS X 10.5 at a time when the newest version of the operating system on the Mac was MacOS X 10.4.x.

    The takeaway message is that the UNIX 03-based MacOS X/iOS was a long time in the making. It will be with us for a long time to come.
  21. macrumors 6502a


    Jul 21, 2007
    With patents and copyrights it's unlikely that OS X would change from it's basic BSD Unix underpinnings ever. iOS is just another flavor of OS X. Operating systems don't just spring up overnight and they sure don't spring up without trampling on someone else's patents.
  22. macrumors 6502


    May 20, 2010
    still much work to be done on OSX filesystem. please make a zfs clone. osx badly needs it.

    erm, osx has 15 more years left. all i can give it before it becomes a dinosaur, like crappy os9
  23. macrumors 68020

    Jul 4, 2002
    Muncie, Indiana
    Mac OS X the Brand, or Mac OS X the software itself?

    If you're talking about the software itself, then iOS is pretty much the same thing as Mac OS X. It has most of the same frameworks, filesystem, etc. As others have mentioned, it's Unix-based. Unix, as a set of concepts, has been around for around 35 years, altho the innards, kernel and so on, have changed substantially. Would the Mac change back to the Mach kernel, or some other message-passing design? Perhaps. Likely it would be an evolutionary change over a period of time.

    If you're talking about the Brand, "Mac OS X", that could change anytime on Apple's whim. For example, they only went from Mac OS 7 to Mac OS 8 as a legal dodge to escape their contractual obligations to licensees, there was no significant technology change.
  24. macrumors 68000

    Apr 12, 2002
    My math says they'd fall 6 years short of that.
  25. macrumors 68000


    Jan 23, 2004
    San Francisco, Terre d'Ange, Bas Lag, Gallifrey
    To quote an old-time MR poster, and from numerous other places:

    I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

    The day iOS replaces OS X proper on anything but iToys is the day I go back to Windows.

    And no, I don't care that iOS is "based on" OS X - it is an over DRM-locked, App Store, walled-garden nightmare.

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