MacWorld 2004 Weather Forecast

Discussion in 'Community' started by IJ Reilly, Dec 24, 2003.

  1. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #1
    I'm kind of a weather nut and spend quite a bit of time reading the raw forecast models the Weather Service uses to develop its official forecasts. Data is just starting to come in for the week of MacWorld. Here's my private long-range forecast for the week of MacWorld 2004 San Francisco. It's very preliminary of course, and this far out the forecast could easily change, so "caveat lector" applies. I will update every day or so. I hope MR readers find this useful for their planning. (At this point, I'd pack my umbrella.)

    Monday, January 5
    Partly cloudy, clouds increasing in afternoon with a possibility of light drizzle towards evening. Light westerly winds.
    High: 55
    Low: 48

    Tuesday, January 6
    Mostly cloudy, possible light drizzle all day. Westerly winds to 10 mph.
    High: 57
    Low: 52

    Wednesday, January 7
    Mostly cloudy, with light drizzle in the AM but some sun possible by afternoon. Southerly winds picking up to 15 mph later in the day.
    High: 59
    Low: 51

    Thursday, January 8
    Increasing clouds, breezy overnight, with rain developing in the morning and continuing through the day.
    High: 58
    Low: 52

    Friday, January 9
    No data yet.
     
  2. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #2
    Thank you for the weather update IJ Reilly. It seems that there will be no weather related reason not to attend. A little drizzle won't hurt the Mac faithful.
     
  3. Flowbee macrumors 68030

    Flowbee

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2002
    Location:
    Alameda, CA
    #3
    That's pretty much the weather forecast every day from December - February in San Francisco :).
     
  4. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #4
    Confound it, my secret is revealed!

    Now, I beg to differ with you just a little. Last year, the weather was clear and mild, and cooperative until late in the week. Two years ago, it was near picture-perfect for the entire show. The year before that, it was cold and windy, and poured rain nearly all week.
     
  5. MoparShaha macrumors 68000

    MoparShaha

    Joined:
    May 15, 2003
    Location:
    San Francisco
    #5
    The weather here has been horrible :rolleyes:. Oh well, the joys of living in SF...
     
  6. latergator116 macrumors 68000

    latergator116

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2003
    Location:
    Providence, RI
    #6
    I'd rather live in SF than here any day of the week. Here it is hot and humid in the summer, and cold/bitter in the winter. Except for today though, I think it topped out at 55?; but that's 16? above average for this time of the year.

    EDIT: That's funny, it replaces degree signs with question marks.
     
  7. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #7
    Update 12-25

    The current forecast trend is towards a somewhat wetter and cooler pattern.

    Monday, January 5
    Partly cloudy, clouds increasing with a chance of rain in afternoon. Light winds.
    High: 48
    Low: 44

    Tuesday, January 6
    Overcast, with rain developing by morning and continuing through the day. Winds southerly to 15 mph by afternoon.
    High: 51
    Low: 51

    Wednesday, January 7
    Overcast, with rain in the morning and continuing into the afternoon. Southerly winds to 20 mph in the early morning, diminishing by afternoon.
    High: 53
    Low: 51

    Thursday, January 8
    Partly cloudy with a clearing trend. Light winds.
    High: 58
    Low: 51

    Friday, January 9
    Mostly sunny. Light winds.
    High: 54
    Low: 48
     
  8. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #8
    Update 12-27

    The models have just flip-flopped, taking the rain out of the long range forecast entirely, turning the week dry, mostly sunny but cool. The longer range models do this frequently, so I won't buy into this change until I see some run-to-run consistency. It is encouraging, though.
     
  9. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #9
    Update 12-28

    The last few model runs have re-introduced rain into the picture, particularly in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, though lighter and more showery then earlier indications. Some clearing later in the week is still in the forecast. One persistent feature is cool temps and wind. If the trend holds, daytime highs may not break 50 all week, which may not sound bad to those of you in the rest of the country, but is below average for San Francisco in January.
     
  10. Freg3000 macrumors 68000

    Freg3000

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2002
    Location:
    New York
    #10
    I guess that means its a lock for G5 PowerBooks......

    :D
     
  11. Awimoway macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2002
    Location:
    at the edge
    #11
    I, too, am somewhat of a weather nut. My dad was a meteorology major, and some of the unbridled geeky enthusiasm for the elements rubbed off.

    All I know is that:
    a. This is California, so good weather is common, even in the rainy months.
    b. On the other hand, winter is the wet season here. It's when the jet stream dips the lowest and often splits, with a southern stream over us.

    I check weather forecasts every day, and I know that computers are extending the forecasting range quite a bit, but I would be really interested to see what percentage of long-range forecasts ever bear out. I bet it's pretty slim.
     
  12. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #12
    I've always been interested in meteorology, but it turned into kind of an obsession when I became a private pilot. An obsession with a purpose.

    The predictive models are getting steadily better, but weather forecasting still seems to be equal parts science and art. My own method of verification of long range forecasts comes from watching the model outputs for several days. They tend to oscillate quite a bit especially 7-14 days out, but when the model seems to repeat a similar solution there's a pretty good chance it will be in the zone. This is more or less how the NWS forecasters do it -- though they also blend the outputs of the suite of models they've got available to them, and know which ones to trust for the given conditions. They're the pros... still, I've been right when they've been wrong more then a few times!

    A forecast can be dead-bang on 14 days in advance, and completely wrong 24 hours out depending the complexity of a given situation and the season. Winter on the West Coast isn't too difficult. I'm still reasonably confident about my prediction of rain for mid-week -- it's been in the models since before Christmas.
     
  13. Awimoway macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2002
    Location:
    at the edge
    #13
    Are you talking about this week's storm or next week? The one coming in tonight/tomorrow is going to clobber the fire-damaged mountains just south of where I live. But I'm not complaining. The inland West needs all the rain it can get.
     
  14. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #14
    I'm still talking about San Francisco during MacWorld week. FWIW, the forecasters are backing off the big totals for tomorrow's storm just a bit (below Pt. Conception). How much we get depends on the track of the low. Still it looks like the south-facing mountain areas will get pretty wet. A classic winter subtropical fetch with strong upper-level flow from the southwest. Not quite a "pineapple express," but close.
     
  15. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #15
    Update 12-29

    Wet and cool still seems to be the week's theme. I'm beginning to wish I'd booked a hotel closer to the Moscone Center.

    Monday, January 5
    Overcast, with rain early, ending in afternoon. Light winds.
    High: 52
    Low: 48

    Tuesday, January 6
    Partly cloudy early, becoming overcast towards afternoon, with a chance of rain developing by mid-day. Light winds.
    High: 48
    Low: 45

    Wednesday, January 7
    Mostly sunny, cool and breezy.
    High: 49
    Low: 38

    Thursday, January 8
    Increasing clouds overnight with rain developing by morning, turning showery by afternoon. Breezy to windy.
    High: 53
    Low: 48

    Friday, January 9
    Showery overnight, then turning partly cloudy and cool.
    High: 54
    Low: 50
     
  16. MrMacMan macrumors 604

    MrMacMan

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2001
    Location:
    1 Block away from NYC.
    #16
    The Forcast is now partially sunny with a chance of DOOM

    sorry needed to get that out of my system.

    I hope everyone that goes has a nice day.
     
  17. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #17
    1-1 Update

    I'm sorry to report, this forecast just keeps getting wetter and wetter. The soggiest days appear to be late Tuesday into Wednesday, with the potential for a really juicy storm on Friday.

    Monday, January 5
    Partly cloudy, becoming overcast by afternoon with 30% probability of light rain late in the day. Winds from the south 10-15 mph.
    High: 53
    Low: 42

    Tuesday, January 6
    Overcast, with 50% probability of rain by morning and increasing through the day. Winds from the south at 10-15 mph.
    High: 56
    Low: 48

    Wednesday, January 7
    Overcast, with rain likely in the morning, turning more showery in the afternoon. Winds from the south at 15-20 mph.
    High: 56
    Low: 49

    Thursday, January 8
    Overcast, with showers. probability of rain 50%. Winds from the south 10-15 mph.
    High: 57
    Low: 49

    Friday, January 9
    Overcast, with rain heavy at times in the morning, and a small chance of thunder showers. Winds from the south at 20-25 mph in the morning, diminishing some by afternoon.
    High: 58
    Low: 53
     
  18. Phil Of Mac macrumors 68020

    Phil Of Mac

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Location:
    Washington State University
    #18
    Re: MacWorld 2004 Weather Forecast

    Reason #1 Western Washingtonians think Californians are so funny: They own umbrellas.

    Here in Western Washington, rain is a way of life. We don't need umbrellas because we don't own clothes that aren't waterproof in the first place. ;)

    (But, seriously, you never see an umbrella around here.)
     
  19. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #19
    Re: Re: MacWorld 2004 Weather Forecast

    You won't see them often in England, either. In fact, the Brits seem to only rarely wear hats in the rain anymore. Strange. This hasn't always been the case -- for some reason, both hats and umbrellas have gone out of fashion. Which, as far as I'm concerned, is a good reason to wear a hat and to carry an umbrella.
     
  20. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #20
    1-4 Update

    Ok, here's the last weather update for next week in San Francisco. In the end, the forecast didn't change that much from the first run nearly two weeks ago. Not bad, if I must say so myself...

    Monday, January 5
    Partly cloudy, becoming overcast by afternoon with 30% probability of light rain late in the day. Winds from the northeast, 5-10 mph.
    High: 53
    Low: 38

    Tuesday, January 6
    Mostly cloudy, becoming overcast with 30% probability of rain by the afternoon. Winds from the south at 5-10 mph.
    High: 55
    Low: 43

    Wednesday, January 7
    Overcast, with rain likely in the morning, turning more showery in the afternoon. Winds from the south at 10-15 mph.
    High: 57
    Low: 49

    Thursday, January 8
    Overcast, with light rain likely in the morning turning showery in the afternooon. Winds from the southeast 10-15 mph.
    High: 57
    Low: 48

    Friday, January 9
    Overcast, with a 40% probability of rain in the morning with winds from the southeast at 10-15 mph in the morning. Clearing and less wind by afternoon.
    High: 59
    Low: 48
     
  21. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #21
    Good job IJ Reilly, you have been very diligent in your prognosticating of the weather. At least we know that weather will not be a factor for the Stevenote or MWSF itself. It does sound as though an iUmbrella might some in handy.
     
  22. latergator116 macrumors 68000

    latergator116

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2003
    Location:
    Providence, RI
    #22
    Speaking of weather, we are going to have a high of 17 on Thursday!!! I hate the cold! I can't wait till summer. not to mention our school can barely afford to heat the building, so it is always cold in there.
     

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